Model Output Discussion - 30th November onwards

[Captain Shortwave]

Deep Atlantic trough developing, strong ridge penetrating the vortex up the Eastern States/Canada

Again this is not showing zonality, the canadian vortex is under real pressure.

Unfortunately we don't get lucky to our east so it's probably a big block over the UK coming up

Edited November 30, 2013 by Captain shortwave

[SMU]

Pah- close but no cigar on this run....

 

Still 5 days of cold for the UK ( 4 for just the south) & the prospect of snow- a long way from the GFS-

 

So the NOAA have ditched the GFS..... --  Where did I hear that before....

 

S

[Barry12]

Yep, here comes the mild from ECM

 

Party over before it's started!

 

Yep, really mild that...

[Joe Levy]

Yep, here comes the mild from ECM

 

Party over before it's started!

Right, but after 3 full days of cold... 3 days is plenty thank you very much and it will feel very seasonal! Also, that chart you have posted is not mild, not at the surface and even the uppers aren't very high. They're within the expected range for the time of year

[chionomaniac]

http://www.meteociel.fr/modeles/ecmwf/runs/2013113012/ECH1-192.GIF?30-0

 

T192- Toppler ??

 

-9c still entrenched

http://www.meteociel.fr/modeles/ecmwf/runs/2013113012/ECF0-192.GIF?30-0

 

 

Look at the split energy ovewr Moscow & look at the energy streaming to Scandi ...... Its not going SW ( but the it is in the central atlantic)

 

 

S

 It's a new one - the half toppler...

[Gaz1985]

JMA a bit colder than yesterday -8 uppers now into N England, wasn't there yesterday

 

 

 

-8 uppers edging into Norfolk

 

 

Becomes a bit milder

 

 

But then becomes colder once more

 

[Mucka]

SOME VERY IMPORTANT NEWS FROM THE USA!!!

 

To put to bed the GFS 12hrs run, it has already been ditched by NOAA as early as T 72hrs for the key area downstream in which the GFS operational run develops the shortwave and runs it quickly east.

 

TROUGH DIGGING INTO THE WEST

CYCLOGENESIS IN THE LEE OF THE ROCKIES

~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~

PREFERENCE:  ECMWF/UKMET/CANADIAN COMPROMISE

CONFIDENCE:  ABOVE AVERAGE

THE GENERAL FLOW PATTERN SUGGESTS A STRENGTHENING RIDGE ACROSS THE

NORTHEAST PACIFIC SHOULD CAUSE ENERGY MOVING THROUGH WESTERN

CANADA TO DROP THROUGH THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST.  THIS RULES OUT THE

12Z GFS/12Z NAM AND 09Z SREF/06Z GEFS MEANS FROM CONSIDERATION.

THE PREFERENCE IS FOR A 00Z UKMET/00Z CANADIAN/00Z ECMWF

COMPROMISE WITH ABOVE AVERAGE CONFIDENCE DUE TO THE AMPLIFIED

NATURE OF THE FLOW PATTERN IN ITS VICINITY.

 

To add to this the pattern should evolve as follows:

 

GENERAL CONSENSUS IS TO LIFT SOME ENERGY INTO EASTERN MONTANA ON

TUESDAY...THEN HAVE THE UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH REGENERATE A

SECONDARY...AND MORE INTENSE WAVE THAT EXITS EAST CENTRAL ROCKIES

WEDNESDAY.

 

And finally the best news if it verifies:

 

A 40/40 INCLUSION OF THE 30/00Z GEFS/EC ENSEMBLE MEANS WILL COVER

MUCH OF THIS MEDIUM RANGE FORECAST...WITH THE ASPECTS OF A ECMWF

DETERMINISTIC VIEWPOINT COVERING THE WAVE OFF THE ATLANTIC COAST.

 

The GFS is too fast and too flat, and has very little chance if any of verifying.

 

 

Precisely what I said earlier - smug smiley please.

 

"I think it's still wrong though. It just looks far too fast and the way the high ridges back in toward the UK despite the forcing from the trough from 72h just doesn't look right at all and anyway I think the pattern is already a little too far East by this point. Sticking my neck out I know but that's the way it looks to me. Can't say how amplified the ridge will be even if we correct all that but we would certainly get a better blast with the pattern further West and a deeper trough than GFS output today."

Edited November 30, 2013 by Mucka

[radiohead]

144 is effectively 156 from the 0z this morning, the high was always forecast to move east.

You can see the shift comparing todays 12Z to yesterdays 12Z. It's not huge, I just think its something to look out for as weve seen eastward shifts before closer to T0.

[Snowy L]

Pah- close but no cigar on this run....

 

Still 5 days of cold for the UK ( 4 for just the south) & the prospect of snow- a long way from the GFS-

 

So the NOAA have ditched the GFS..... --  Where did I hear that before....

 

S

It was always going to be that though. I'm starting to trust the Met O a lot more with mid-range forecasts. They will sometimes side with the GFS and will sometimes not side with it, unlike some on here to think it's the gospel. Met O going for a a 3-4 day cold spell, GFS going for a 0 day cold spell, I think it's becoming very clear that GFS should be rubbished for this cold spell.

[Summer Sun]

ECM ends with the high remaining in place

 

 

Becoming less cold for all

 

Edited November 30, 2013 by Summer Sun

[lorenzo]

Weather models are not horses !

[Captain Shortwave]

Not a bad chart to be honest. Calm and anticyclonic, plus with the ridge over the Eastern seaboard there is a chance to pull the high over the UK back west again

[nick sussex]

My final post before Strictly, thank God for the satellite dish! ECM 240hrs is an interesting chart! zonal I don't think so, hopefully SM et al can explain. Back soon with more  from our USA correspondent.

[Cheshire Freeze]

Deep Atlantic trough developing, strong ridge penetrating the vortex up the Eastern States/Canada

Again this is not showing zonality, the canadian vortex is under real pressure.

Unfortunately we don't get lucky to our east so it's probably a big block over the UK coming up

 

Yep, going forward I think some form of easterly would be on for days 12-14ish as low heights across E Europe and Russia start to mix out with the high out east creeping slowly west.......then possibly shaking hands with our HP. Far cry from zonal.

Edited November 30, 2013 by CreweCold

[mpkio2]

You don't need a SSW to achieve a Greenland block. As long as the strat vortex is split, displaced or weak then it's not a problem. 2009 saw a weak strat vortex through November due to various small warnings during October and into November. I recall the strat didn't cool to average until into December.

Oh no no, I was referring that the SSW didn't occur to Jan 2010 - yet we still had a GH inn mid-December 2009. Although, it seemes I was wrong on when the SSW occured 9Or that there was one at all! lol.

Edited November 30, 2013 by mpkio2

[ChartViewer]

When the Chinese come out to play you know the GFS USA merchants begin to panic

 

 

[Grimsby Snow Lover]

ECM ends with the high remaining in place

 

 

Becoming less cold for all

 

Wouldn't this type of setup support frost, fog and more of a faux cold at the surface?

[radiohead]

Would be interesting to have an T268 on the ECM there....

[Summer Sun]

Wouldn't this type of setup support frost, fog and more of a faux cold at the surface?

 

Frost would all depend on the high if it was a cloudy high night time temps wouldn't drop enough

Edited November 30, 2013 by Summer Sun

[East_England_Stormchaser91]

ECM ends with the high remaining in place

 

 

Becoming less cold for all

 

That could be just as cold as the Northerly despite higher uppers, surface temps would likely not get above 3-4c and lows in the countryside could touch -8 easily.

Another thing, look how far that cold out of the balkans pushes, Sahara could be seeing snow!!

Edited November 30, 2013 by East_England_Stormchaser91

[Cloud 10]

Weather models are not horses !

 

Apart from GFS... 

 

[Frosty.]

Lots of surface cold by the end of the ecm 12z, especially across the snow fields...lovely jubbly .

[Mucka]

Right, time to raise a toast to ECM, absorb the output with a little drink to relax. go out and share a few with friends then drown my sorrows after seeing the GFS 18z output.

I may be a little hungover tomorrow but hope to see ECM stick to its guns, maybe even shift the pattern back West a touch, UKMO get fully on board with it and GFS, well GFS can do what it wants.

Edited November 30, 2013 by Mucka

[SMU]

So there we have it----

 

my last post until tomorrow- 12 hours down the line from the 00z & nowhere closer to any consistency-

 

A couple of points to note- ASSUMING the ECM/ UKMO blend is correct with a strong Northerly then if you look over ensemble watch you will see that the 3 12z ensemble suites from the GFS have been hopeless- & perhaps the alcohol induced 18z has been the best-

 

The disagreement between the UKMO & ECM isn't resolved, however even if they meet in the middle the UK is still cold, just 1 day less so than the ECM-

The UKMO 144 shows energy spilling over the top, so thus cutting off the feed but by all means not a toppler.

 

 

Long term, the ECM 12z has been progressive before So I reserve the right to say that its to progressive again this eve flattening the profile to much @ 192.

Scandi heights feature ZERO in the models- but don't rule them out....

 

Hopefully IF things do pan out the euro way then we will put the GFS in its place once & for all- however IF the ECM backs the flat GFS pattern I will never discard the GFS again in an amplified outlook.

 

Have a good eve- The 18z has been the best amplified run so far- so expect big differences to the 12z....

 

 

S

[stewfox]

Deleted

Edited November 30, 2013 by stewfox