Model Output Discussion - 30th November onwards

[SMU]

I sound like a old record which keeps skipping but watch the surface feature over the Eastern seaboard of the US guys n gals, for developments further down the line.

 

Hi GTLW

 

Its not the feature itself - Its the way its trough axis is tilted-

 

@120 The GFS & is tilted EAST- the UKMO is tilted NE & the ECM @ 120 is tilted NORTH-

 

Small angles of change- huge repercussions.

 

 

Here is tonights ECM 144 V the GFS 144-

 

Is there ever was a polar opposite this will be it.

GFS

http://modeles.meteociel.fr/modeles/gfs/runs/2013113012/gfsnh-0-144.png?12

 

ECM

http://www.meteociel.fr/modeles/ecmwf/runs/2013113012/ECH1-144.GIF?30-0

 

Note the difference of 850s for the

 

ECM

http://www.meteociel.fr/modeles/ecmwf/runs/2013113012/ECH0-144.GIF?30-0  -10c

GFS

http://modeles.meteociel.fr/modeles/gfs/runs/2013113012/gfsnh-1-150.png?12 0c

 

Its been a difficult evening- but the GFS either way has had X2 shocking 12z on the trot-

 

S

Edited November 30, 2013 by Steve Murr

[ChartViewer]

Still retaining cold uppers at T168

 

BRRRRRRRRRRRR...Lovely start to Winter

 

[Summer Sun]

High slightly further east by t168 remaining cold for the 3rd day.........

 

 

At least one model with have this on its face regarding this spell but which will it be

 

Edited November 30, 2013 by Summer Sun

[terrier]

I just can't buy the ECM I'm sorry if that upsets people but the tweet from Ian ferguson doesn't fill me with joy still think the gfs has got the handle on this if I'm honest. By the sound of the mogreps model it's a lot closer to the gfs solution than the ECM

[chionomaniac]

Worth looking at that T+144 UKMO chart that I highlighted earlier and comparing to the ECM

 

So here is the UKMO chart again - remember the 75% of energy in the form of the shallow depression over the ridge:

 

 

Well it's not there on the ECM which will keep the cold flow more meridional and it will last longer.

 

 

With no agreement like that FI is well inside that timeframe as well!!

 

It renders the earlier difference of opinion quite pointless also. Good to have debate though.

[Barry12]

ECM is not backing down! very cold on Saturday, with -8's covering the whole of the UK, and -12's even -14's for parts of Scotland!!

 

[Captain Shortwave]

Whilst the pattern has shifted east, the ECM snow event is still there

Note the kink off the EA coastline.

Also the pacific ridge is making more impact over the other side of the pole compared to the 00z, whether that has any impact or not remains to be seen

Edited November 30, 2013 by Captain shortwave

[Summer Sun]

Quick look at the 850's from the big 3 at t144 and ECM remains the coldest UK wide, UKMO is second with GFS 3rd

 

[nick sussex]

SOME VERY IMPORTANT NEWS FROM THE USA!!!

 

To put to bed the GFS 12hrs run, it has already been ditched by NOAA as early as T 72hrs for the key area downstream in which the GFS operational run develops the shortwave and runs it quickly east.

 

TROUGH DIGGING INTO THE WEST
CYCLOGENESIS IN THE LEE OF THE ROCKIES
~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~
PREFERENCE:  ECMWF/UKMET/CANADIAN COMPROMISE
CONFIDENCE:  ABOVE AVERAGE

THE GENERAL FLOW PATTERN SUGGESTS A STRENGTHENING RIDGE ACROSS THE
NORTHEAST PACIFIC SHOULD CAUSE ENERGY MOVING THROUGH WESTERN
CANADA TO DROP THROUGH THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST.  THIS RULES OUT THE
12Z GFS/12Z NAM AND 09Z SREF/06Z GEFS MEANS FROM CONSIDERATION.
THE PREFERENCE IS FOR A 00Z UKMET/00Z CANADIAN/00Z ECMWF
COMPROMISE WITH ABOVE AVERAGE CONFIDENCE DUE TO THE AMPLIFIED
NATURE OF THE FLOW PATTERN IN ITS VICINITY.

 

To add to this the pattern should evolve as follows:

 

GENERAL CONSENSUS IS TO LIFT SOME ENERGY INTO EASTERN MONTANA ON
TUESDAY...THEN HAVE THE UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH REGENERATE A
SECONDARY...AND MORE INTENSE WAVE THAT EXITS EAST CENTRAL ROCKIES
WEDNESDAY.

 

And finally the best news if it verifies:

 

A 40/40 INCLUSION OF THE 30/00Z GEFS/EC ENSEMBLE MEANS WILL COVER
MUCH OF THIS MEDIUM RANGE FORECAST...WITH THE ASPECTS OF A ECMWF
DETERMINISTIC VIEWPOINT COVERING THE WAVE OFF THE ATLANTIC COAST.

 

The GFS is too fast and too flat, and has very little chance if any of verifying.

 

[The Northern Ramper]

The high has shifted eastward on the ECM at 144, still a cold run but there are changes here from the 0Z.

144 is effectively 156 from the 0z this morning, the high was always forecast to move east.

[Mucka]

ECM sticking to its guns though we are now looking at a day blast rather than 3 due to it shifting the pattern East a little - otherwise very consistent.

 

Comparison with yesterday.

 

 

This is still programmed to be an exceptionally cold Northerly for this time of year by ECM

 

 

Hope it comes off!

[Joe Levy]

SOME VERY IMPORTANT NEWS FROM THE USA!!!

 

To put to bed the GFS 12hrs run, it has already been ditched by NOAA as early as T 72hrs for the key area downstream in which the GFS operational run develops the shortwave and runs it quickly east.

 

TROUGH DIGGING INTO THE WEST

CYCLOGENESIS IN THE LEE OF THE ROCKIES

~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~

PREFERENCE:  ECMWF/UKMET/CANADIAN COMPROMISE

CONFIDENCE:  ABOVE AVERAGE

THE GENERAL FLOW PATTERN SUGGESTS A STRENGTHENING RIDGE ACROSS THE

NORTHEAST PACIFIC SHOULD CAUSE ENERGY MOVING THROUGH WESTERN

CANADA TO DROP THROUGH THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST.  THIS RULES OUT THE

12Z GFS/12Z NAM AND 09Z SREF/06Z GEFS MEANS FROM CONSIDERATION.

THE PREFERENCE IS FOR A 00Z UKMET/00Z CANADIAN/00Z ECMWF

COMPROMISE WITH ABOVE AVERAGE CONFIDENCE DUE TO THE AMPLIFIED

NATURE OF THE FLOW PATTERN IN ITS VICINITY.

 

To add to this the pattern should evolve as follows:

 

GENERAL CONSENSUS IS TO LIFT SOME ENERGY INTO EASTERN MONTANA ON

TUESDAY...THEN HAVE THE UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH REGENERATE A

SECONDARY...AND MORE INTENSE WAVE THAT EXITS EAST CENTRAL ROCKIES

WEDNESDAY.

 

And finally the best news if it verifies:

 

A 40/40 INCLUSION OF THE 30/00Z GEFS/EC ENSEMBLE MEANS WILL COVER

MUCH OF THIS MEDIUM RANGE FORECAST...WITH THE ASPECTS OF A ECMWF

DETERMINISTIC VIEWPOINT COVERING THE WAVE OFF THE ATLANTIC COAST.

 

The GFS is too fast and too flat, and has very little chance if any of verifying.

 

I love reading the writing of the NOAA as the fact that everything is in capital letters makes it seem so much more urgent and official for some reason. Excellent news. We are within a timeframe now where many of the changes upstream are already beginning to happen, so it is reassuring to have that sort of guidance being issued. 

[Summer Sun]

t192 has the high across the UK less cold air just edging into Ireland but remaining cold for all at the surface

 

Edited November 30, 2013 by Summer Sun

[East_England_Stormchaser91]

Really think that GFS is pushing that low through quite illogically tbf. It looks to be going right into the block rather than over the top, or underneath it. It surely can't pivot straight into the block can it, it needs some 'shunt' to pivot into, which can only be the jet that splits under and over it? Or am I wrong? someone explain.

This has really got me head scratching this has!

Edited November 30, 2013 by East_England_Stormchaser91

[Barry12]

ECM sticking to its guns though we are now looking at a day blast rather than 3 due to it shifting the pattern East a little - otherwise very consistent.

 

We have 3 days with -8 uppers at least for most of us, how is that a day blast exactly?

 

Edited November 30, 2013 by Barry95

[radiohead]

Did you expect an exact replica? The ECM is brilliant to day 6 given what we have had to endure NWP wise thus far today.

Im not sure why you are suggesting I was expecting an exact replica? Prevoius ECM runs were pretty consistent with the high being further west, so it is a change worth highlighting as we need to be wary of any further eastward movement, as well as its impact on precipitation. Cold and snowy vs. cold but more dry etc.

[chris55]

ECM really going for the Arctic blast tonight!!! GFS and to an exent, UKMO both have the "push through" low moving east, collapsing the high. Whereas ECM takes it north, allowing that bitter feed to flood south. 

 

Typical winter model "battle" and more often than not that low will spoil the party. But ECM is the king, lets hope mits right for our first blast of winter!!!

 

GFS...."coming through!"

 

 

UKMO....."trying to come through"

 

 

ECM..... "I like going north, santa!!!" (classic pattern out west for a cold UK)

 

Edited November 30, 2013 by chris55

[ChartViewer]

I love reading the writing of the NOAA as the fact that everything is in capital letters makes it seem so much more urgent and official for some reason. Excellent news. We are within a timeframe now where many of the changes upstream are already beginning to happen, so it is reassuring to have that sort of guidance being issued. 

Lets hope Tamara doesn't view NOAA's capital letters....Only joking T

[The Post-modern Winter]

I just can't buy the ECM I'm sorry if that upsets people but the tweet from Ian ferguson doesn't fill me with joy still think the gfs has got the handle on this if I'm honest. By the sound of the mogreps model it's a lot closer to the gfs solution than the ECM

The GFS has been dismissed by NOAA - it is simply too flat (see Nick Sussex's post). Still going to keep banging the GFS drum?

[SMU]

http://www.meteociel.fr/modeles/ecmwf/runs/2013113012/ECH1-192.GIF?30-0

 

T192- Toppler ??

 

-9c still entrenched

http://www.meteociel.fr/modeles/ecmwf/runs/2013113012/ECF0-192.GIF?30-0

 

 

Look at the split energy ovewr Moscow & look at the energy streaming to Scandi ...... Its not going SW ( but the it is in the central atlantic)

 

 

S

Edited November 30, 2013 by Steve Murr

[nick sussex]

I love reading the writing of the NOAA as the fact that everything is in capital letters makes it seem so much more urgent and official for some reason. Excellent news. We are within a timeframe now where many of the changes upstream are already beginning to happen, so it is reassuring to have that sort of guidance being issued. 

As you can see I'm beginning to catch some of those theatricals with my posting style! Regarding the GFS its really gone off on one upstream. Once the updated state forecasts come out I'll post their thoughts across, hopefully they'll further trash the GFS 12hrs operational run, also we want to see more of what they think regarding the ne USA and the much debated low there.

[tight isobar]

Ecm is as I thought going most likely form horse...gfs should begin smell coffee....rock solid from ECM!!!

[Purga]

Yep, here comes the mild from ECM

 

Party over before it's started!

Edited November 30, 2013 by Purga

[Summer Sun]

t216 sees the coldest air shifting away east with the high in control

 

 

So 3 very cold days (4 for Scotland) from ECM before a return to less cold weather as per the met office nothing prolonged

Edited November 30, 2013 by Summer Sun

[I remember Atlantic 252]

Yep, here comes the mild from ECM

Party over before it's started!

 

disagree on that chart, coldest of the run for the south, -8 uppers, could be -15 minimum temps Sat night, -5 sunday midday