Model Output Discussion - 30th November onwards

[Cheshire Freeze]

Unless that extra resolution recently upgraded I believe, is taking it down the garden path...Lets hope not!

 

It was an ensemble upgrade....or so I'm lead to believe.

[Grimsby Snow Lover]

Unless that extra resolution recently upgraded I believe, is taking it down the garden path...Lets hope not!

I too hope the ECM is leading the way, but surely we all remember 'That ECM' from early last December? For this reason I am trying not to get too excited regarding any cold and snow just yet.

[Joe Levy]

ECM at 120 hours. Very much in line with what it has been showing so far. Let's hope that those verification stats remain true and that the ECM is right about this. 

[Captain Shortwave]

Unless that extra resolution recently upgraded I believe, is taking it down the garden path...Lets hope not!

It's only the ensembles that got upgraded I believe.

So after moving into my new place I have witnessed carnage as I returned, maybe we should make a proper judgement on where we are heading when we have a reasonable amount of information to do so, like after the ECM op has run it's course.

T120

It doesn't look like it's backed down here.

[Mucka]

 

Not bad at all and a little better than UKMO but notably they are quite close at 120 so who would take a GFS operational that has changed every run over the two best models at that range?

[Cloud 10]

ECM rock solid at 120 hrs.

 

[Cheshire Freeze]

Good old ECM

 

 

That'll do nicely. Foundations laid at 96 hrs.....4 days out.

 

GFS seemingly down with the 'cannon fodder' models with its scenario.

Edited November 30, 2013 by CreweCold

[TSNWK]

The differences between ECM and gfs at 120 are so stark... Atlantic high ridging nicely towards Greenland

[Ian Brown]

ECM is much better thus far but it will stand alone tonight WRT northerly.

[Mucka]

Good old ECM

 

 

That'll do nicely. Foundations laid at 96 hrs.....4 days out.

 

Absolutely but even though I have said I think GFS is wrong and explained exactly why, I would still take cross model support for a solution than consistency from one particular Model. 

[Summer Sun]

No backing down from ECM

 

[Cheshire Freeze]

ECM is much better thus far but it will stand alone tonight WRT northerly.

 

Lovely day 6 chart. -10 850s and a snow streamer for us Ian

 

[Mucka]

ECM is much better thus far but it will stand alone tonight WRT northerly.

 

 

Perhaps with the depth of cold and longevity but surely UKMO is closer to supporting the ECM solution than the GFS? 

Edited November 30, 2013 by Mucka

[I remember Atlantic 252]

No backing down from ECM

 

 

Very surprised, so happy to be proven wrong, on this particular run anyway! decent blast arriving Thurs night, through friday

[gottolovethisweather]

Good old ECM

 

 

That'll do nicely. Foundations laid at 96 hrs.....4 days out.

 

GFS seemingly down with the 'cannon fodder' models with its scenario.

 

Indeed CC I now have a better feeling about things in terms of cold and I think the cannon fodder model will return to its original colder trend come the Monday 12z. Whatever, at least there is something to cherish for coldies. Whether it can prolong things from Friday onwards will be most intriguing and we will find out shortly.

Edited November 30, 2013 by gottolovethisweather

[ChartViewer]

Perhaps with the depth of cold and longevity but surely UKMO is closer to supporting the ECM solution than the GFS? 

Did Ian really say that 

[tight isobar]

120 ecm and It's having far from back track...

[bobbydog]

 

 

ok.... thats definitely seven chickens i've got.......

[radiohead]

The high has shifted eastward on the ECM at 144, still a cold run but there are changes here from the 0Z.

[The Northern Ramper]

For how long and how often are we going to hear the term 'That ECM' ?

[Cheshire Freeze]

The high has shifted eastward on the ECM at 144, still a cold run but there are changes here from the 0Z.

 

Did you expect an exact replica? The ECM is brilliant to day 6 given what we have had to endure NWP wise thus far today.

[Joe Levy]

The high has shifted eastward on the ECM at 144, still a cold run but there are changes here from the 0Z.

I am unsure whether it has shifted eastward by much though. Remember that in terms of timing, the 12z from yesterday is a more accurate comparison due to the fact that ECM is released twice daily, but I am sure you are right that there is some shift

Edited November 30, 2013 by Joe Levy

[cooling climate]

LOL the ECM T144 chart takes the low over the eastern seaboard

of the US up the western side of Greenland. Plus look at the

amplification of the Atlantic ridge all due to a much more

amplified Arctic as it has been showing consistently.

[tight isobar]

+ 144 and whole UK,under -8 850, hpa...

[Skyraker]

Ensemble watch.