scotland Scotland Regional Discussion - 29/11/2013 ---->

[blitzen]

Hmm....not really sure about the 06z as there are too many differences which I find a bit suspect? Most of the other models have the Christmas day storm albeit at differing intensities, but on the 06z it has completely disappeared. Still chilly enough but the whole run between Christmas and New Year appears to be a lot calmer. Think we should await the 12zs.

[Hawesy]

Feels more like winter today. Good sunny spells here in NE Fife, currently 5c.

 

The models suggest one thing to me based on current output - traditional Scottish winter weather and plenty of hill snow.

[edo]

certainly feeling far chillier today......the windchill making it feel far diffrent to the recent weather even though its only 4c or so cooler.....I am heading to the parents this year with the kids so mixed feelings about the weather output.... As long as no roads disruption and can get there for 2pmish on christmas day it can then do what it likes....not adverse to a sleep over with extra helping hands around for the little guys!!

[snowy owl]

Mostly sunny and a little chilly compared to recent weather.

 

A bit of a wind blowing but all in all nice to see some sun.

 

Charts looks a little odd - will check in later and see if the update any clearer (edit as blitzen has already pointed out!)

 

Away to start the wrapping And maybe ice the cake

[Snowlover2]

certainly feeling far chillier today......the windchill making it feel far diffrent to the recent weather even though its only 4c or so cooler.....I am heading to the parents this year with the kids so mixed feelings about the weather output.... As long as no roads disruption and can get there for 2pmish on christmas day it can then do what it likes....not adverse to a sleep over with extra helping hands around for the little guys!!

Ditto. We have family coming over and then we're all heading out for our dinner. I better make sure there's enough food in just in case!

[Ravelin]

This morning's cloud cover and showers soon disappeared and its a lovely looking day outside now with wall to wall blue skies and sun. Temperature has dropped about a degree, or even two, since this morning and with the breeze I suspect it will feel on the chilly side for a change.

 

Popped in and read the last few pages of the model thread for the first time since Thursday. The obsession of finding anything resembling a cold chart is striking, although admittedly the stormy synoptics being offered up did at least seem to be getting more attention than they usually seem to.

Edited December 16, 2013 by Ravelin

[lorenzo]

This morning's cloud cover and showers soon disappeared and its a lovely looking day outside now with wall to wall blue skies and sun. Temperature has dropped about a degree, or even two, since this morning and with the breeze I suspect it will feel on the chilly side for a change.

 

Popped in and read the last few pages of the model thread for the first time since Thursday. The obsession of finding anything resembling a cold chart is striking, although admittedly the stormy synoptics being offered up did at least seem to be getting more attention than they usually seem to.

 

Model thread into winter is the Hunt for Cold thread, which is fine as this seems to be what the majority of folks like in Winter -  the potential for Frosts and copious snowfall.

 

Where it gets tricky to read is in times like now where there is a bit of a N-S divide, our latitude helping by keeping us on the cold side of the jet and subject to colder air and more traditional winter synoptics. Can totally understand the frustration felt by folks further south, especially when that eurotrash high is sloping around. I think the upcoming active Atlantic phase will be enough to keep everyone pre-occupied.

 

Guess what I am trying to say is that this is where the regional thread is brilliant as we can ramp away about storms and possible polar maritime incursions in here without grating anyone else !

 

Definitely into a cooler airmass now, feeling quite sharp out there today when the wind picks up. More wintry element to the higher clouds also. 

[Polar Maritime]

I'm off up to Fort William tomorrow staying in Glen Nevis for the week, Im hoping to get some climbing done but chances look slim what with the storms forecast... Anyway I love Scotland and wish i had never moved, as you say Lorenzo at least we will have some interesting weather. Thursday looks a little breezy and plenty of snow for the Mountains (that's if it doesn't get blown away.. 

[101_North]

and possible polar maritime incursions 

 

Literally in the very next post too LOL

[Northernlights]

 Cooler today but mostly sunny with just a couple of heavy showers.Was 2.5c this morning at 10.00am with ground frost when I took this photo of Ben Wyvis partially hidden by a snow shower across the Firth with the snow level approximately 1600feet. Plenty of snow on all the other high hills around the Firth. Currently 3.5c

Edited December 16, 2013 by Northernlights

[Ravelin]

Guess what I am trying to say is that this is where the regional thread is brilliant as we can ramp away about storms and possible polar maritime incursions in here without grating anyone else !

 

 

What you are really trying to say is this is where we return to to regain our sanity after visits to the model thread.

 

I too can understand the frustration of the more southerly inhabitants of this small chunk of land surrounded by relatively mild seas. I'm also old enough to remember winters from around the mid 70s onwards, and that therefore long, cold, snowy periods, even north of the border are rare, and those in December almost unknown. I'd be happy as long as there's snow on the hills to at least make it feel more like winter.

 

Also, for some reason I can't explain, especially given that it's only a week later, I've always had the belief that a white New Year is much more likely than a white Xmas.

[Northernlights]

What you are really trying to say is this is where we return to to regain our sanity after visits to the model thread.

 

I too can understand the frustration of the more southerly inhabitants of this small chunk of land surrounded by relatively mild seas. I'm also old enough to remember winters from around the mid 70s onwards, and that therefore long, cold, snowy periods, even north of the border are rare, and those in December almost unknown. I'd be happy as long as there's snow on the hills to at least make it feel more like winter.

 

Also, for some reason I can't explain, especially given that it's only a week later, I've always had the belief that a white New Year is much more likely than a white Xmas.

Your quote about snow more likely at New Year than Christmas  is how I remember the sixties winters as a child.with lots of green Christmases and white New Years. 

 

 Violent shower on just now with sleet and wet snow flakes now 2.1c.

Edited December 16, 2013 by Northernlights

[lorenzo]

12z take on Thursday's low. GFS / GME deepen the latest Atlantic Beastie. UKMO less intense and GEM a whole lot slower with the Jet.

 

GFS /  GME - 

 

UKMO / GEM - 

 

Over to the ECM, due to the 24 time steps, we will be looking at the equivalent of these time frames on the GFS and missing the most intense phase of deepening of the low.

 

 

[Ross Andrew Hemphill]

What is the most likely outcome for these storms at the moment anyone??

[lorenzo]

ECM follows the GFS with the storm track for Thursday.

 

951mb low.

[Northernlights]

Your quote about snow more likely at New Year than Christmas  is how I remember the sixties winters as a child.with lots of green Christmases and white New Years. 

 

 Violent shower on just now with sleet and wet snow flakes now 2.1c.

 Just to back this up just seen a couple of lightning flashes to the west.

[BleakMidwinter]

 

 

Second installment for the alternative Xmas songs. This is one for those born in the 70's/80's.

 

Enjoy!

This is a bit brilliant, this is. Ta!

[BleakMidwinter]

 

 

Also, for some reason I can't explain, especially given that it's only a week later, I've always had the belief that a white New Year is much more likely than a white Xmas.

Anecdotally, yep. My birthday is the 5th January, and we moved up here in 1979 when I was 10 - and as I remember it, pretty well every birthday in my school years was a "white birthday" but we had only the odd one or two white Christmases - 1979 was one, because it was my very first one! 

[lorenzo]

Thank you all for your continued contribution. 25K visits and nearly 1000 posts since the end of November, Superb.

 

New thread here http://forum.netweather.tv/topic/78776-scotland-regional-discussion-16122013/