scotland Scotland Regional Discussion - 29/11/2013 ---->

[Big Innes Madori]

Great link, really mild, feels like late Autumn never mind December !!

Feels like a typical Scottish Summer L!A bonus tae this though.Nae Central Heating require this morning.Big Innes

[Glaswegianblizzard]

Was looking at the climate history graphs on Weather Online there, struggling to find a time in a recent December where it was so consistently mild. To my mind I thought maybe 2006 or 2007 would have been very mild, but not as much as this.

 

Watching the Galatasaray v Juventus game with envy. Istanbul, you have Glasgow's weather and we want it back!

[NUT]

April...............sorry December comtinues a pace. Can't remember it being this mild in a long time for december

[Highland Snow]

Maximum today 12.0C and dropping rapidly to currently 6.0C (-1.5C/hr).

[lorenzo]

At work so cannot post charts, the 12z GEFS panel is worth a look for over the weekend, some truly insane systems projected within the perturbation suite.

 

http://www.meteociel.fr/cartes_obs/gens_panel.php?modele=0&mode=1&ech=102

 

GFS spectacular at winding up low pressure systems, however many similar runs in this selection.

[LomondSnowstorm]

This is the GEFS 10m wind forecast for somewhere along the mate corridor (around Airdrie way) just as an example:

http://modeles.meteociel.fr/modeles/gens/runs/2013121112/graphe7_1000___-4.528301886792452_55.91093117408907_.gif

 

I'm not 100% sure if this is gusts or sustained, but either way it's pretty bad, and if it's sustained (which I suspect it is) it has the potential to be worse than any of the storms we've seen in the last few years.

[Stormeh]

I am looking forward to some Atlantic storms after the recent boring weather, I just hope they are not to severe though and everyone stays safe!

[LomondSnowstorm]

There are hints of cool/cold zonality as we go towards Christmas, with the Euro high increasingly likely to be flattened and troughing digging south via height rises on the other side of the pole again. This from Joe B from EC control for the 22nd shows how we can maybe cash in from that intense North American based cold - note the Atlantic ridging starting to divert the jet southeastwards:

 

Talk of similarities to the late December 1983 severe cold outbreak over the pond (their coldest December on record) which is interesting for us because of the month that followed here:

Note the Aleutian ridge as well - as I discussed with last week's setup it's critical to shunting the vortex off Greenland and allowing Canadian sourced northwesterlies in. Normally this kind of setup is somewhat speculative but my thinking is that, with the extreme depth of cold that will continue to build in the North American continent in the next 10-15 days, there's a much better than average chance of that kind of setup delivering. I think the Euro high might still be too dominant to stop anything other than a more bog standard zonality up to Christmas (with still the odd hint of high ground snow potential if we're in a 'cold front' phase of the pattern) but after that, with the Euro height anomaly steadily decreasing and the Aleutian high gaining traction, the possibilities are intriguing (albeit that's not a particularly inspiring mean on the face of it):

 

What I most like about this solution is that it's synoptically 'big' and elegant, and also could also segue nicely into a January which is increasingly dominated by a more southerly tracking jet and the first proper HLB (all speculation at this stage but there's at least a bit of interest starting to show up on the strat thread as well which should help down the line).

So, in summary, HP less likely, full on storminess/troughing/rain zonality also more likely but the real shift in probability is towards a cooler zonality in the longer run, although with the evolution pretty slow, painful and potentially resulting in a dreich, sodden and cool but not quite cold enough for snow Christmas period.

Edited December 11, 2013 by LomondSnowstorm

[Polar Side]

Excellent post LS.

The models do seem to be taking the troughing more into Europe and the jetstream that little bit further south in the further outlook and a period of cold zonality could hopefully be on the cards from Christmas onwards. I can remember January 84 being very snowy accross Scotland and a period of proper cold zonality would be very welcome while we wait for a proper HLB to develop !

[lorenzo]

Couple of others from the same timeframe following on from LS post, this with the Atlantic view.

 

Jet mean and control run

 

500hPa anomaly and also t850hPa anomaly.

 

 

Couple of other tempting charts from Huug Van Den Dool site - cracking name that !! Pretty nice charts too if you like Greenland highs

 

Just got to complete a Deadliest Catch grind through this positive NAO spell and fingers crossed the wait will all be worth it later on.. still lots going on to monitor within the reliable wrt. to the RACY systems bombing on the Jet.

 

Edit - add ECM mean at 96 hrs. ECM mean charts Now on Netweather http://www.netweather.tv/index.cgi?action=ecmens;sess=

 

 

Also the postage stamps are back for folks who want to look through the entire run.

 

Edited December 11, 2013 by lorenzo

[skifreak]

I hope one of the Summit weather stations on CairnGorm is ready for the weekend for those 180mph winds we're getting!

[Big Innes Madori]

Whit aboot  Scotster making a TV appearance tonight on the Winter In The Scottish Mountains programme oan the BBC eh

 

 

Big Innes

[lorenzo]

Okay from the 18z pub run Ensemble - bombs away 

 

Three of the most extreme projections,  general track is in place, another 8 similar in that run either further North or less explosive.

 

This evening Fax from Met office and 12z ensemble.

 

 

Going to be another amazing satellite reel on yr no from this one.

 

 

 

[Hawesy]

Morning all,

 

Another mild night generally: http://www.met.rdg.ac.uk/~brugge/amextremes.html

 

But it was chillier yesterday evening in the south of the country, a low of 1c at Leuchars and even an air frost at Eskdalemuir.

 

Looks like a stormy few days ahead!

[mistyqueen]

Morning Peeplings! Another murky day ahead, still don't have the central heating on! Metcheck saying snow for me on Monday...we'll see! Anyhoo, gauny be blawy over the next few days eh? Better tie everything doon jist in case!

[Northernlights]

Very windy overnight here with old farmhouse rattling a lot,not much sleep. A result of us being just north of the Cairngorms with the wind from a southerly direction. Judges who were here for the neep competiton!!!!!  yesterday said it was calm in Keith but could hardly stand in our  field in the late afternoon yesterday. Farm road now dry and dusty again a theme of 2013. Currently almost flat calm and 12.1c.

 

 Love the model thread this morning where the models are being interpreted by where you live in the UK.  If it turns cooler by Christmas then the fact we all live in the north of the UK and are nearer the Arctic Cirle will aways give us a better chance of snow

Edited December 12, 2013 by Northernlights

[Benvironment]

Whit aboot  Scotster making a TV appearance tonight on the Winter In The Scottish Mountains programme oan the BBC eh

 

 

Big Innes

 

Cheers   But for some reason my pals were more excited by my foot!

 

 

A thought-provoking programme.

Edited December 12, 2013 by Scotster

[Ravelin]

And here we go again...10C or so at 9am here, dry and earlier cloud cover now breaking up nicely to show large amounts of blue sky but the sun has yet to put in an appearance. A bit of a breeze coming and going, and that breeze felt warm when I was outside earlier.

 

As usual I forgot about that program on BBC Scotland last night, will have to see if I can find it on iPlayer.

Edited December 12, 2013 by Ravelin

[Benvironment]

And here we go again...10C or so at 9am here, dry and earlier cloud cover now breaking up nicely to show large amounts of blue sky but the sun has yet to put in an appearance. A bit of a breeze coming and going, and that breeze felt warm when I was outside earlier.

 

As usual I forgot about that program on BBC Scotland last night, will have to see if I can find it on iPlayer.

 

Here you go: http://www.bbc.co.uk/programmes/b03l5lvh

 

An unbearable 9.4C here but the murk is at least lifting so I'm off for a stroll in Glendevon

[jon_d1983]

Thought it was you! excellent program and definetly thought provoking.  I know a few people who have been caught in a slide and its not fun.

[lorenzo]

Thanks for the link scotster, look forward to watching that, now that monopoly of telly by masterchef concludes !

[Altered Carbon]

Cheers   But for some reason my pals were more excited by my foot!

 

553172_10152060482100239_16.jpg

 

A thought-provoking programme.

 

I watched that last night too - and even rewound to show the Mrs this bit! Had no idea it was someone from on here

[Ross B]

-10c, light winds with snow flurries.....

Sorry, in the Canadian rockies at the mo! I'm mainly shocked I'm not missing snow in the UK which usually happens when im abroad! Slightly worried about my exposed house back home though as it didn't do that well in the last storm! Looks more of a sw'ly for the first storm than funnelling thro the Central belt this time which may help.

[BleakMidwinter]

 Judges who were here for the neep competiton!!!!!  yesterday 

Well??Don't jsut leave us all in suspense - how did your neeps do????

[November13]

Thanks for the link scotster, look forward to watching that, now that monopoly of telly by masterchef concludes !

What is it about Masterchef. I hate soaps and reality shows. Yet I am hooked on Masterchef. It must be to do with the skill of some of these Chefs and the funny comments from the experts about some of the disasters.It's gripping TV.