scotland Scotland Regional Discussion - 29/11/2013 ---->

[snowy owl]

It's not looking good, what's your take on where the worst winds will be?

How dangerous are we talking for Thurs ?

[Jo Farrow]

HI Snowy Owl, I'm not far from you, if you go through that bit over RIver Tyne on A1 past Haddington  - that will be DANGEROUS, prob. closed,

 

bridges will have issues. not for me to say how Dept for transport will respond but you can imagine. 

 

This direction is awful as it whistles through, with the violent gusts forecasts, so  a lorry is bound to come over

If Met. O issue a red, then essentially it's don't go out territory - like storm 'Bawbag' and trains stop etc

I am not stating this is will be Bawbag repeat, will wait for another model run.

[snowy owl]

HI Snowy Owl, I'm not far from you, if you go through that bit over RIver Tyne on A1 past Haddington  - that will be DANGEROUS, prob. closed,

 

bridges will have issues. not for me to say how Dept for transport will respond but you can imagine. 

 

This direction is awful as it whistles through, with the violent gusts forecasts, so  a lorry is bound to come over

If Met. O issue a red, then essentially it's don't go out territory - like storm 'Bawbag' and trains stop etc

I am not stating this is will be Bawbag repeat, will wait for another model run.

Thanks for that will keep a close eye on this one. Have to consider travel safety as a priority and getting kids to school (or not). Went out today to try and avoid going too far on Thursday as i had imagined it wont be very pleasant but am a little concerned about how bad it might become, will keep watching and looking out for everyone,s fantastic posts. 

[mardatha]

Is great to have this forum, I trust you lot far more than the tv weather people

[Jo Farrow]

Hey Mardatha don't knock the TV weather people 

 

The Met. O Amber warnings (and others) are influenced by population density and climate, so Western Isles are expected to not receive a warning for gales, whereas a more southern sheltered area would, the emphasis is to highlight more unusual weather I suppose

[SW Saltire]

HC - Just take it. After 2 yrs of sitting in a box, can you not come up with a justification for using it that somehow also ties in with work (even if it's just a slim link with work)?

 

Could almost use the overused word 'mild' this morning as it was 9-10C on my drive into work. Dry with mainly grey cloud and just the odd patch of blue sky showing in the distance. Light winds.

 

Not ventured into the model thread so far today, has their easterly disappeared yet?

 

See the post from Ian F, which states that the MetO see a very cold pattern developing in the 10-15 day range. This easterly has a long way to go...

[GulberwickWeather]

I'm not surprised about a potential amber warning, I did wonder if that might be coming. I suspect conditions up here could be quite grim Thurs/Fri with winds of Gale to Severe Gale Force, perhaps touching Storm 10 at times and heavy snow showers. Could be interesting for a wee while anyway! Dewpoint currently around the freezing mark up here so pretty cold already.

Edited December 3, 2013 by Shetland Coastie

[mistyqueen]

Looks like Thursday will be a stay indoors sorta day. Big fire on, better charge up some batteries just in case.

[A Winter's Tale]

Thursday morning and afternoon really is looking lively and nasty across large parts of the country. During the morning the west coast and western isles probably bearing the brunt of the winds and perhaps Moray and Aberdeenshire during the first part of the afternoon. We need to keep a close eye on this low as it could produce the most widespread and significant storm since early January last year. Aswell as strong winds the front sweeping south looks set to bring heavy and widespread precipitation and this would only make the conditions even worse. Low dew points and uppers should certainly result in significant snowfall and blizzard conditions on higher ground. It's difficult to judge how low the snow line will be but perhaps some of the higher routes could see challenging conditions for a time. And I wouldn't be surprised if the precip is wintry to lower levels on the back edge of the front. After that it looks like snow showers will be present around parts of Aberdeenshire, Moray, the Cairngorms the highlands north of Inverness/Great Glen, parts of the western highlands and Argyll (perhaps falling as rain nearer the coast) and maybe some precipitation reaching SW parts of Dumfries and Galloway. It will be interesting to see the quality of convection late Thursday/early Friday and perhaps more of us will end up seeing at least one snow shower before it turns milder later.

[strathearn snow]

MWIS are predicting gusts of 120mph! Granted it'll be on mountains but could be very dangerous at low level too!

[Ravelin]

See the post from Ian F, which states that the MetO see a very cold pattern developing in the 10-15 day range. This easterly has a long way to go...

If it's a proper easterly I'll take it. One with a good strong flow and cold upper that promotes plenty of showers coming off the North Sea. If it's a slack flow or coming more from the SE then it's generally no good for us.

 

Only light drizzle here this afternoon but it's gone very, misty and grey. Probably be dark before 3pm at this rate.

[strathearn snow]

Battleground set ups were also mentioned with Atlantic incursions happening. Usually get our best snow here from this type of set up.

[milkmaid]

thought i'd better nip back on to keep an eye out ,seems like it might be a bit of a blow here ,sent daughter off for her trip a day or so early ,travelling with a baby from here to england is not going to be fun in those conditions 

[SW Saltire]

Battleground set ups were also mentioned with Atlantic incursions happening. Usually get our best snow here from this type of set up.

yes, from an IMBYism pov battleground scenarios are the real deal. Even after the equinox in late march we achieved 6 foot drifts and almost a foot of level snow in Dumfriesshire with more further west, as  was seen in Arran. Thus, an easterly, as Ravelin says would need to be very potent although it is usually very clear in the west provoking a continental i.e. sharp frosts, sunny days and if we get a dusting then the low dewpoints will mean it will stay 

Edited December 3, 2013 by SW Saltire

[SW Saltire]

Just read back through this tread to March 23rd and i'm sorry i could not have answered the calls that asked if anyone in southern Scotland could update given the snow. As this thread's members seem to be in the central belt or above. It was a very memorable spell looking back, beaten in this area only by years near my birth as i know it snowed in 1995 and i think a year early 90s we had 3 or 4 foot of snow but it vanished after a few days unlike in March last year. The longevity of that spell will take some beating despite the fact is was well into spring (for this my home area at least). 

[mardatha]

Hoping that I get some snow this week....if SS gets it so will I.

[lorenzo]

This is a grim looking forecast from the afternoon models. Mentioned the Amber warning last night, wonder how the  UKMO see this low developing, if anything like this then surely Amber. 

 

92 mph gusts.

 

GFS / UKMO

 

Jet

 

The only positive if you can call it that is the system barrels through and out to sea in a few hours. 

Edited December 3, 2013 by lorenzo

[LomondSnowstorm]

One thing I have been monitoring, other than the back edge potential Thursday lunchtime for central areas, is the 'breakdown' on Friday night when a warm front approaches from the west. Now, the main problem of course with a warm front is that it introduces uppers which are above 0C, but on the front edge with very little mixing and temperatures going, or remaining, sub zero on Friday night, we might just have a chance at seeing some of the white stuff:

 

 

The timings on this vary, with the above probably a bit more progressive than the GFS/NMM solution, but it gives you a general idea of the frontal setup as we head into Friday night - a slow moving warm front drifting eastwards. At 3am the NMM global model shows this:

With temperatures at the same time remaining near 0C for most:

While the precipitation does look light it's likely that whatever falls between midnight and 4am for most central areas will be as snow and likely to lie (although with the caveat that we don't have the 950s so freezing rain or sleet may be a possibility) with uppers not getting above 0C for most of Saturday:

By morning the colder air at the lower levels will gradually be squeezed out from above so I wouldn't expect to necessarily wake up with any precipitation but if you fancy an allnighter you may be able to catch a bit of proper snowfall if Thursday doesn't deliver (although Thursday still looks reasonable for a bit of falling, if not lying, snow on the backedge down to relatively low levels with some impressive totals for the mountains.

 

 

 

[BurntFishTrousers]

 

The return of 'Bawbag

[Hairy Celt]

Here's a dumb question... why is it that the strongest winds in these set ups in the last few years always hit central belt? The gust chart that Lorenzo's posted just above has quite a familiar look.

[blitzen]

 

The return of 'Bawbag

Thought you would turn up!  (like a moth to a flame)......Good to have you on board as it looks rough!

[Hairy Celt]

 

 

The return of 'Bawbag

Too many testicles!

[blitzen]

Here's a dumb question... why is it that the strongest winds in these set ups in the last few years always hit central belt? The gust chart that Lorenzo's posted just above has quite a familiar look.

You don't want it do you? Sometimes it isn't as bad over the east tho' but not so sure this time?

Too many testicles!

If I had any, I might be able to comment!

[NorthernRab]

Here's a dumb question... why is it that the strongest winds in these set ups in the last few years always hit central belt? The gust chart that Lorenzo's posted just above has quite a familiar look.

 

In the 00s, we were more likely to experience Bartlett style set ups, deflecting low pressure towards the Highlands - jet placement often encouraged more in the way of SW to NE running lows - quite simply. 

 

Things seemed to have changed over the past 5 or so years, much less in the way of the big Highland storms from my childhood, how far away events like the Hebridean Hurricane seem now! 

[LomondSnowstorm]

Here's a dumb question... why is it that the strongest winds in these set ups in the last few years always hit central belt? The gust chart that Lorenzo's posted just above has quite a familiar look.

 

I think it's mostly topographical - when the winds are westerly there's not much stopping the flow of air from the Atlantic (or at least the Clyde estuary) right through to East Lothian, whereas generally the Northwest, Western and then Southern Highlands tend to shelter lower parts further east. I suppose part of it is also just the modelling though, because at the resolution of the GFS the above, rather simplified, version of events is what will show up most clearly rather than a more nuanced picture. For example, the summit of Cairngorm almost always gets the highest wind gusts due to its elevation and individual sites vary hugely depending on very local topographical features.