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Netweather Winter Forecast 2013


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Only had time to have a brief flick through last night but read it in full now, cracking read, +AO was prevalent during the first 2 thirds of 1990/1991 winter, the rest will go down in history as one of the greatest of the 'christmas pudding' of course, i just wonder,  patience the key.

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Thanks for such a detailed forecast, as others have said a lot of time and energy and hard work has gone into this, well done, will be interesting to see how it all pans out, from my untrained eye/perspective I think you may well be spot on,oh that has probably gone and jinxed it ;-}  Thanks once again Ed.

Edited by TobyT
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The winter forecast for 2013 is now online!

 

Posted Image

 

There are 2 versions of the forecast available, both written by Ed O'Toole. First, the main forecast:

http://www.netweather.tv/index.cgi?action=winter-forecast-2013;sess=

 

Second, the in depth and technical version:

http://www.netweather.tv/index.cgi?action=winter-forecast-in-depth;sess=

Traditional winter.

 

Mild and Cold at times but no real dominating weather type.

 

Huzza!!

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nice forecast chio thanks. If only james madden was rite tho for many of us it would of been a winter worth experiencing. Anyway i would take the mor realestic forecast.

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It is warm-ish today,with temperatures likely to hit anything up to 12c early this week. And we still have insects flying about,which is not right for December (ala the 1990s).

 

Bloody cold yesterday though,especially sat in Home Park watching the footie.

 

 

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Just read through the In Depth winter forecast. Posted Image  Excellent forecast as always by Netweather and I enjoyed reading it. 

Very informative and well explained.

 

As I do If you like seasonal weather, cold and snow, then this could be the winter for you.

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  • 3 weeks later...

Would be great to hear from Ed regarding how he sees the forecast is progressing ...has anything changed to make him think the second half may turn out different?

Edited by KTtom
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  • 2 weeks later...

The second outcome is for a significantly colder month with below average temperatures and the risk of heavy snow and easterly winds.

This is just pure fantasy.

We're now almost at the half way stage of the winter with no significant snow or cold anywhere in the British Isles (not just here) and nothing on the horizon either. Even next week's predicted cold spell has fizzled out before it even started and the Met Office are now going for a mild outcome for February.

Nope, this is looking like a real snowless stinker of a winter unfortunately.

I don't think any of the winter forecasts are going to turn out right. Even The Weather Outlook has got it badly wrong this time.

Still, we can always live in hope but I'm not optimistic now judging by the models this morning Posted Image

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Not a fair comment PH on someones forecast that has a lot of research and analysis to create it. For February it's either can win *mild* or *cold* what we are looking at is the possibility that the Atlantic does dominate but as such with much more cold air involved-not warmth, the less battle of the mild and cold and the jet not 'turbo' charged as we have seen it recently likely result in far lower chance of wind storms developing=more relaxed air flows=less mild air pulled in. So a cold and wintry set up likely to develop but not necessarily a freeze, this depending I think on the Scandi high. The next few weeks very much could bring some surprises and must not forget what happened last Spring! (how can we!)

 

 

 

This is just pure fantasy. - Peter H.
Edited by ElectricSnowStorm
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This is just pure fantasy.

We're now almost at the half way stage of the winter with no significant snow or cold anywhere in the British Isles (not just here) and nothing on the horizon either. Even next week's predicted cold spell has fizzled out before it even started and the Met Office are now going for a mild outcome for February.

Nope, this is looking like a real snowless stinker of a winter unfortunately.

I don't think any of the winter forecasts are going to turn out right. Even The Weather Outlook has got it badly wrong this time.

Still, we can always live in hope but I'm not optimistic now judging by the models this morning Posted Image

Really? Last time I checked the bit you quoted was one of two possible outcomes for February, a month which isn't even within the range of the GFS yet. We may not end up with an easterly but we do have blocking to the northeast building for the first time this winter and with further wave attacks on the vortex and we could easily end up with an SSW, or at least some decent vortex disruption, by the end of the month, all of which could lead to a colder than average February but also potentially to the second, less cold, scenario outlined. Calling that potential from 2 months out is pretty good going, and I don't see why the work of people like Chiono should be dismissed so easily, especially when we're not even at the halfway point of winter yet. Most forecasts (including this one) basically went for a winter of two halfs and most got the first half about right - let's see what happens in the next 7 weeks before we start throwing toys out of the pram.

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Surely let winter finish before calling someone's piece of hard work pure fantasy? Also give them a chance to review their forecast as Chio did for the first half - reasons for differences clearly explained. Honestly... Posted Image

 

Mother Nature doesn't read a forecast and go "yea ok then let's do that! Posted Image

Edited by Chris K
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I think the updated review is first class with a clear explanation of the underestimation of the depth and strength of the vortex and the resultant consequences. That is as creditable as the production of the initial forecast itself 

 

Such an underestimation like this is understandable and how often indeed can instinct prove right in these situations !! However when compiling an official forecast such as this then templates to structure the forecast are essential and consideration given to any blends and modifications they might suggest. 

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Very harsh calling someones hard work a fantasy, by all means say the original was bust but fantasy implies that it's nothing better than a wild guess which is a real insult as you can see the amount research and work that has gone into issuing this.

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Funnily enough the December forecast wasn't far of for here. Drier than average the only Hiccup being the slightly above temperatures. Jan at the moment looks like it could well be bust on the detail side but not far off from the when looking at the pressure as we so have that pattern developing. All depends on the second half re-address's the balance or not.

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Very harsh calling someones hard work a fantasy, by all means say the original was bust but fantasy implies that it's nothing better than a wild guess which is a real insult as you can see the amount research and work that has gone into issuing this.

Wishing for snow in this kind of persistent weather set up is pure fantasy in my opinion, and I'm not meaning to be harsh.Remember, at the start of last week a much colder spell this week looked very much on the cards, yet it fizzled into oblivion by the end of the week.I'm just trying to be realistic.The long range charts right up to the 10th February have nothing remotely cold on them this evening. A lazy jet stream winter this certainly ain't. Can't see the rest of February being anything different to what we're experiencing now. Edited by Peter H
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The winter of 1996/97 was very similar to this one, if I remember correctly. 

Mostly wet and unsettled with a few colder frosty spells in between low pressure systems and snowless. I hate winters like this. 

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The winter of 1996/97 was very similar to this one, if I remember correctly. 

Mostly wet and unsettled with a few colder frosty spells in between low pressure systems and snowless. I hate winters like this. 

 

not here, the winter of '96-'97 was very snowy, one of the best, my last white new year infact, snowed all day on 1st Jan '97, very unusual for the peak of the westerlies on average

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Wishing for snow in this kind of persistent weather set up is pure fantasy in my opinion, and I'm not meaning to be harsh.Remember, at the start of last week a much colder spell this week looked very much on the cards, yet it fizzled into oblivion by the end of the week.I'm just trying to be realistic.The long range charts right up to the 10th February have nothing remotely cold on them this evening. A lazy jet stream winter this certainly ain't. Can't see the rest of February being anything different to what we're experiencing now.

The models can feel free to show wet and mild weather right to the end quite frankly. Then it can be wrong and we get the opposite ;)I understand the frustration but actually some the significant factors from the NW forecast have so far been close to the mark?"The AO will be positive to neutral for the first 2/3 of winter.The overall NAO neutral to slightly negative.The NAO conditions are achieved by a southerly positioned jet stream, rather than significant high latitude blocking.Lower risk of a SSW this winter, though some form of late winter stratospheric warming likely.Height anomalies grow over Scandinavia as winter progresses."Forecasting surface weather features are notoriously difficult, dare I say pointless at long range...we are a small blob in the N hemisphere after all.
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