Netweather Winter Forecast 2013

[ZONE 51]

Wishing for snow in this kind of persistent weather set up is pure fantasy in my opinion, and I'm not meaning to be harsh.Remember, at the start of last week a much colder spell this week looked very much on the cards, yet it fizzled into oblivion by the end of the week.I'm just trying to be realistic.The long range charts right up to the 10th February have nothing remotely cold on them this evening. A lazy jet stream winter this certainly ain't. Can't see the rest of February being anything different to what we're experiencing now.

Everyone is entitled to their opinion, but you say "Can't see February being any different to what we're experiencing now." then why say someones else's forecast/prediction for Feb is fantasy... this is fantasy too then isn't it?

Edited January 12, 2014 by ElectricSnowStorm

[ZONE 51]

This CFS chart here indicating cold air plunged into N/E Europe with the 510 dam, this is far out it's late February but at least gives an idea that the cold could be never to far away even late winter, these charts best checked for consistency of general pattern, this model has been good over the years for indicating Arctic blasts for example even 2 months out, it did well last winter.

Edited January 12, 2014 by ElectricSnowStorm

[Peter H]

Everyone is entitled to their opinion, but you say "Can't see February being any different to what we're experiencing now." then why say someones else's forecast/prediction for Feb is fantasy... this is fantasy too then isn't it?

I'm old enough to know that once the weather gets into this kind of rut it's very, very. difficult to shift.I hope I'm wrong but it's not looking good for February.Remember, every single winter forecast was predicting a colder than usual January with snow at times. Where is it ?

[feb1991blizzard]

I'm old enough to know that once the weather gets into this kind of rut it's very, very. difficult to shift.I hope I'm wrong but it's not looking good for February.Remember, every single winter forecast was predicting a colder than usual January with snow at times. Where is it ?

 

You may be right but on balance I would probably beg to differ if your talking about the whole of February.

 

Upgrade on the ECM and GEFS ensembles.

Edited January 12, 2014 by feb1991blizzard

[Gaz1985]

You may be right but on balance I would probably beg to differ if your talking about the whole of February.

 

Indeed, late February 2005 had some heavy snowfalls, I remember here having consecutive days of falling and settling snow from an easterly. Another snowy episode was early March 2006. 

[feb1991blizzard]

Indeed, late February 2005 had some heavy snowfalls, I remember here having consecutive days of falling and settling snow from an easterly. Another snowy episode was early March 2006. 

 

Indeed, late February 2005 had some heavy snowfalls, I remember here having consecutive days of falling and settling snow from an easterly. Another snowy episode was early March 2006. 

 

 

What did you get in feb 05 as a matter of interest?, I was over the desperation snow loving thing I had as a kid (only rediscovered it in feb 09) by then generally as I was working but I remember really hoping on this occasion to get pasted as I was on a rubbish shift 2-10pm across with a cross city 13 mile journey in Birmingham and had a severe flu and remembered having a massive overdose of ibuprofen to get through it and wanted to get the shift called off so hoping buses and trains wouldn't run, it all turned into much ado about nothing though with a slight covering, had the tues wed and thurs but got begged to go in on the Friday and did, remember a covering on the Monday tues (dusting) and an inch (Thursday), from the initial easterly.

[Gaz1985]

What did you get in feb 05 as a matter of interest?, I was over the desperation snow loving thing I had as a kid (only rediscovered it in feb 09) by then generally as I was working but I remember really hoping on this occasion to get pasted as I was on a rubbish shift 2-10pm across with a cross city 13 mile journey in Birmingham and had a severe flu and remembered having a massive overdose of ibuprofen to get through it and wanted to get the shift called off so hoping buses and trains wouldn't run, it all turned into much ado about nothing though with a slight covering, had the tues wed and thurs but got begged to go in on the Friday and did, remember a covering on the Monday tues (dusting) and an inch (Thursday), from the initial easterly.

 

We had a few minor coverings (few cm) on about 5-6 days, but we had a bigger fall on between the 23rd and 24th - that gave us about 15cm, back then that was probably the most snow since at least the late December 2000 snowfall/freeze. It was quite a surprising day that in February 2005 because I remember looking at the Manchester airport conditions and it changed to rain there but stayed as snow here and gave all that snow, not much height difference either.

Edited January 12, 2014 by Gaz1985

[feb1991blizzard]

We had a few minor coverings (few cm) on about 5-6 days, but we had a bigger fall on between the 23rd and 24th - that gave us about 15cm, back then that was probably the most snow since at least the late December 2000 snowfall/freeze. It was quite a surprising day that in February 2005 because I remember looking at the Manchester airport conditions and it changed to rain there but stayed as snow here and gave all that snow, not much height difference either.

 

 

Bloody hell, I lived in Manchester 07 - 10 with a short gap in 08 but my mate lived in the city centre between 95 and now and says he hardly had anything until jan 10, anyway id better not post anymore as the wrong thread for this discussion!

[Gaz1985]

Bloody hell, I lived in Manchester 07 - 10 with a short gap in 08 but my mate lived in the city centre between 95 and now and says he hardly had anything until jan 10, anyway id better not post anymore as the wrong thread for this discussion!

 

And I'm only 4 and 1/2 miles (as the crow flies) from the city centre as well - I think they get that urban heat effect thing over there, many a time I've been down there and it's just been a damp floor with nothing - as though it had probably snowed but it didn't stick, then got back home here to snowy slushy streets. We can on occasions do well for snow here in the Tameside area of Manchester, not sure why. Apologies mods. No more posts from me on this topic.

[ZONE 51]

I'm old enough to know that once the weather gets into this kind of rut it's very, very. difficult to shift.I hope I'm wrong but it's not looking good for February.Remember, every single winter forecast was predicting a colder than usual January with snow at times. Where is it ?

Fair enough but try not to dis (put down) peoples forecasts before we get past the period it covers. 

 

Yes I also predicted a cold and snowy January, a mid month Northeasterly was expected, the Scandi high set-up. It's been a turbulent stormy and unusual few weeks and not many expected it to be so severe, it's put some forecasts out (long range) but there is still hope that the pattern can change and possibly a late very cold winter and spring, but also the chances of continuing mild and wet or not to cold and dry, just have to see what happens, perhaps more interesting not really knowing!

Edited January 13, 2014 by ElectricSnowStorm

[The PIT]

This what I posted on MY Website at the end of December for Jan

 

The unsettled stormy weather looks like continuing in January. Certainly the first part of the month will be mostly stormy with a continuation of strong winds. There are tentative signs that the polar vortex may weaken in the second half of the month allowing blocking to form. Where the block forms with decided whether the month ends on a cold frosty snowy note or on the mild side with wind and rain from the south west as the Atlantic tries to push east. At the moment I would January to be above normal temperature wise with rainfall close to average possibly above.

 

Not far off although wetter than expected.

[Summer Sun]

deleted

Edited January 31, 2014 by Summer Sun

[snow freak]

just had to read the netweather winter forecast again out of curiosity to see how it compared with the actual winter we are having and it was a load of cobblers to be honest.  Drier and colder than average they forecasted... and a traditional old fashioned winter.  Well how much more inaccurate could they have been?  Even a 'traditional old fashioned' UK winter would mean a few days of snow falling/lying across most parts of the country.  I live in the midlands and we have yet to see even one flake of snow so far this winter.  We've only had 3 air frosts too, which is unheard of. 

[Tamara]

just had to read the netweather winter forecast again out of curiosity to see how it compared with the actual winter we are having and it was a load of cobblers to be honest. Drier and colder than average they forecasted... and a traditional old fashioned winter. Well how much more inaccurate could they have been? Even a 'traditional old fashioned' UK winter would mean a few days of snow falling/lying across most parts of the country. I live in the midlands and we have yet to see even one flake of snow so far this winter. We've only had 3 air frosts too, which is unheard of.

Self evidently it was not a traditional old fashioned winter and lots of surface details in terms of temperature and rainfall have proved wide of the mark - but such differences are unkindly unflattering to the macro picture pattern of the Northern Hemisphere where key components likely to influence the winter pattern were picked out much more accurately. On that basis I think to dismiss the forecast as 'a load of cobblers' is not only harsh but it rather illustrates an unawareness and/or lack of understanding of various underlying facts.

 

I don't do full seasonal forecasts and to be honest wouldn't attempt one. I prefer to try and follow patterns, making suggestions on a regular basis as to how they might unfold with subsequent and ongoing reviews of progress - such as in the MOD thread and occasionally the stratosphere thread.

 

However, on the basis that my own thoughts through last autumn mirrored many various strands of the net weather forecast, then I think that criticisms of this official seasonal winter forecast should be viewed through the perspective offered in post # 62 updated in January, in this relevant forecast thread, by the author of the forecast..

 

I am sure he would speak better for himself, but as I see it Chiono emphasises quite clearly in that post how any miscalculation of the strength of the polar vortex under a strong polar westerly regime makes vast differences at surface level (especially to a small island like this within the context of a whole Northern Hemisphere) and totally skews and blows off course the micro detail predicted - especially when the dominant lobe under such a regime places itself over Canada and fully maximises temperature gradients such as we have seen with such powerful and persistent low pressure systems.

 

There is no simply no institution, amateur or professional, who anticipated the extremity of this winters weather and on that basis I think to be honest the premise of this, or any other forecast, leads to no justification for excess praise or excess criticism one way or the other.

 

Its certainly worth examining and noting though, if we are going to give a balanced, fair and accurate perspective and critique of such a forecast - that the mid January pattern that defined a pivotal crossroads for the winter pattern was, actually, very accurately anticipated. I think, as your post appears to illustrate, that because there was/has been no noteworthy snow or proper frost to really speak of, and lack of any cold spell in the UK - then people have simply forgetten the underlying facts as to why and how this happened, simply because hopes were dashed when any of this failed to materialise following the fervour of excitement that was occuring back then in the MOD thread especially.

 

Post # 62 refers to the mid/latter winter crossroads whereby stratospheric feedbacks might, with caution, lead to possibilities of an SSW and allow higher pressure over Scandinavia to retrograde far enough west to totally change the complexion of the winter - both in terms of temperature and rainfall. Its easy for people to forget that across the North Sea parts of Europe, not too far away at all from us in relative terms, saw the conditions that this forecast alluded to might arrive in the UK. Also it is being forgotten or ignored that up to the mid part of January stratospheric model indicators reasonably supported the chance of an SSW occuring, that the winter forecast suggested might be possible. On the professional level, the METO's own Glosea 4 model was suggesting this for a time.

 

I think, personally, the fact that the SSW failed to materialise. the sheer unprecedented strength of the polar westerly regime prohibiting this, and consequently the crossroads mentioned above crucially swinging in favour of the Canadian vortex and atlantic trough prevailing .... has made a massive difference to the surface detail in the UK and makes this forecast on a seasonal basis look much much more askew than the reality of the predictions of the wider hemispheric pattern, (that was, in fact, very accurately predicted in its sequence of evolution)

 

I've referred to this crossroads endlessly in my own posts on the MOD thread. The truth is we appeared to be coming reasonably close at one time to seeing a completely different second half of the winter that would have complimented the predictions of this forecast rather more kindly.....

Edited February 16, 2014 by Tamara תָּמָר

[bluearmy]

Tbh Tamara, I'm not sure the post required a reply and certainly not one of the quality you made.

[johnholmes]

What is fascinatig is what caused the intense polar vortex, are there precedents for similar intensities, do they 'fit' if that is the right word, with ideas of the main drivers for winter weather, both in the Stratosphere or Troposphere. When a forecast is 'wrong' such a cruel word, then what follows is what really matters, the research into why it went wrong. That way the forecaster learns and certainly remembers. I am sure Net Wx HQ will be doing just that with ch leading that. Help being available from a number of sensible and constructive areas when needed.

[Mr Frost]

Fair points from both sides but at the end of the day it is the surface conditions that affect us.

We don't live thousands of feet up in the air - trying to dress up the forecast as anything else but wrong is like me saying...but if only my auntie had bolloc## she would be my uncle.

If it had been anywhere near correct I would be the first to hand out the congratulations.

The facts will show the forecast was wrong.

I respect chionomaniac (Ed) and all the time, effort and study he put into it and look forward to his next long range forecast.

Edited February 16, 2014 by Mr Frost

[bluearmy]

I respect chionomaniac (Ed) and all the time, effort and study he put into it and look forward to his next long range forecast.

 

and thats the point. no need for derision. a comment that it wasn't right and some appreciation for making it in such detail. i'm sure we will see an analysis at some point of the reasons for lack of verification and as JH says, we must learn from it. though i do have to say, it was a damn sight closer than most of the lrf's that you have to pay for !!!

[DAVID SNOW]

The forecast from R J S was *free* and not far off the mark.

[Tom Quintavalle]

and thats the point. no need for derision. a comment that it wasn't right and some appreciation for making it in such detail. i'm sure we will see an analysis at some point of the reasons for lack of verification and as JH says, we must learn from it. though i do have to say, it was a damn sight closer than most of the lrf's that you have to pay for !!!

 

Totally agree with your comments ba but what's also galling is the need for some posters to use gratuitous swear words to accompany their posts. We have females and youngsters, who not only post in these threads but view them generally, shouldnt we really be showing more respect and setting a better example here?

 

Tom.

Edited February 17, 2014 by Kentish CZ