Netweather Winter Forecast 2013

[Cheshire Freeze]

Hi Ed, well put together...kudos to anyone going into that much detail.

 

I did spot a typo though!  ....... 'There will be periods when the UK is situated south of the polar front jet and the risk of snow will increase, but also times when milder conditions will ensue before the Scandinavian high builds' I think south should be north?

Edited November 27, 2013 by CreweCold

[Winter Cold]

Just thought id say thank you for taking the time to put this forecast together for us

Im quite a newbie but very eager to learn, the weather facinates me and i could follow the more technical version, it was very well explained!

Heres hoping we all see some snow to make us happy and that February option 2 is the right prediction!!

[Chris K]

Can i Just say thank you for a forecast that has been written so well.

 

I went straight into the in depth technical forecast, and I realise sometimes it can be very difficult to explain such detailed information to amateur learners such as myself, but in all honestly it was so easy to follow and an excellent read.

 

Great stuff!

Edited November 27, 2013 by Chris K

[chionomaniac]

Hi Ed, well put together...kudos to anyone going into that much detail.

 

I did spot a typo though!  ....... 'There will be periods when the UK is situated south of the polar front jet and the risk of snow will increase, but also times when milder conditions will ensue before the Scandinavian high builds' I think south should be north?

Yep - you win the prize!

[Cheshire Freeze]

Yep - you win the prize!

 

Haha awesome. A free Netweather Extra subscription?? LMAO

[chionomaniac]

Haha awesome. A free Netweather Extra subscription?? LMAO

No - just some yellow snow!

[bobbydog]

Thanks for the feedback.

 

I guess when compiling a forecast one has to take the rough with the smooth - especially when it is not predicting snowmageddon!

 

When Paul asked me to provide a winter forecast back in the summer, I instantly assumed that it would be mild all the way this winter - even I was surprised when I looked at it in a bit more detail and saw that analogue years were suggesting an average to below average winter.

 

 

Here's hoping that it is colder than the forecast suggests!!

 

rubbish forecast Ed! make it better! i've just bought a second land rover and i want silly amounts of snow to play in!!!

[johnholmes]

A very well presented forecast chio-many thanks for that. I did like the fact that accronyms were explained every time-again thank you. Like all forecasts we have to wait until 1 March to see how it scored. One thing is for sure, it must have involved very many hours of work-so again my thanks for doing this.

[Polar Side]

A very informative and well constucted forecast chiono, GP would be proud !

[phil nw.]

Good work Ed and well presented covering all factors.Good luck with it.

[Cheshire Freeze]

No - just some yellow snow!

 

I'm guessing that's not going to be lemon flavoured

[Steve C]

Thanks for this!

 

Obviously a lot of hard work has gone into producing this and the knowledge required to be able to do this is truly impressive.

 

I'll be using this to try to improve my weather understanding too and seeing how the weather verifies against this, whatever happens.

[Tamara]

We all know that GP (Stewart) provided a highly technical and incisive insight into long range/seasonal forecasting that has been truly ground-breaking and progressive into the future of meteorological concept and research.  

 

How does one follow that example and who is brave enough afterwards to replace the vacant seat? 

 

The setting up of the stratosphere thread by Ed was an in-tandem part of that breakthrough and it further consolidated the excellent source of references available on this site that have been recognised by 'professional weather institutions' beyond netweather . 

 

This extremely well constructed forecast celebrates his previous achievements as a most appropriately deserved further  'promotion'

 

Well done!

Edited November 27, 2013 by Tamara תָּמָר

[Backtrack]

A meteorological masterpiece. An example of brilliance.

Many thanks Chio, always one of the more respected, talented members on here. Brilliant read.

Edited November 28, 2013 by Backtrack

[LomondSnowstorm]

Excellent work as ever Ed, as in depth and detailed as we've come to expect from a Netweather LRF, which is certainly no mean feat given Stewart's record and reputation on here. Certainly this seems like a particularly difficult winter to forecast in the sense that, while there are, on the face of it, very strong signals pointing towards a positive Arctic Oscillation and nothing particularly strong pointing towards an SSW, almost all of the composite charts I've seen (including mine) are very much favourable to low heights over Europe, certainly mid to late winter, along with positive height anomalies to our north.

Anyway, all the best and I too am rooting for option 2 for February, not least so we can add a severely cold February to complete the set of recent extreme cold months (December 2010, January 2010 and March 2013)

[Coast]

A lot of thought and a sensible LRF Chiono, have you thought of sending it to the Daily Express - they could make it sound so much more dramatic!

[Severe Siberian icy blast]

Absolutely fantastic forecast , very professionally put together and certainly if I we're an outsider I would not no GP hadn't put that together , and in my eyes that's a compliment to anyone out there.

Very informative , and indeed lots to be optimistic about having read through it , remembering we don't need a freezing cold winter to have lots of snow , with the jet stream south of the uk with low pressure coming into the south of the country , dragging in them easterly/southeasterly winds and very low dew points can bring lots of snow events for some of us .

Thankyou for the time you took to put it together ed , really impressed with the format it's done in .

Shaun

[Steve C]

It's also very easy for even a novice to read (mnemonics always initially fully described etc.) despite the complexity of the subject.

Very well thought out and a great credit to Ed. People can use this as an excellent framework to help expand their own meteorological knowledge.

[snow freak]

well that sounds a tad disappointing after all the talk of the worst winter for decades on the cards.  Nothing amazing in that forecast to be honest.  Although i am not sure why people take the time and effort with forecasting months in advance when it is proven that we cannot forecast the weather a week in advance let alone a month.  Seems a waste of time and money to me.

[Heisenberg]

well that sounds a tad disappointing after all the talk of the worst winter for decades on the cards.  Nothing amazing in that forecast to be honest.  Although i am not sure why people take the time and effort with forecasting months in advance when it is proven that we cannot forecast the weather a week in advance let alone a month.  Seems a waste of time and money to me.

The only people that were warning of that were the likes of Powell, Madden and the express. Ed's forecast was very thorough. It may come to fruition and it may not, but it clearly took a lot of time and effort and I, like many am very appreciative of the efforts.

 

It’s a forecast, it’s not meant to be taken as gospel but more of a guide of what might happen when one takes in all of the variables of modern forecasting practices. If you feel that way about LRF's, why did you come into this thread anyway?

[snow freak]

apologies and not intend to cause offence to Ed.  A lot of time and effort obviously went into this forecast and okay, it wasn't exactly what i was hoping for, but then when are things ever that straight forward when forecasting for this country?  I can only hope his forecast for a below average winter comes to fruition and even more so than his forecast implies.  Still not convinced about long term forecasting, but that is just my opinion and not a criticism.  Still hoping for a cold and snowy winter (if that can ever happen again in the UK).

The only people that were warning of that were the likes of Powell, Madden and the express. Ed's forecast was very thorough. It may come to fruition and it may not, but it clearly took a lot of time and effort and I, like many am very appreciative of the efforts.

 

 

 

It’s a forecast, it’s not meant to be taken as gospel but more of a guide of what might happen when one takes in all of the variables of modern forecasting practices. If you feel that way about LRF's, why did you come into this thread anyway?

[Barry12]

I'm very surprised and disappointed, I just assumed that Paul would be asking me to issue the winter forecast, given my advanced knowledge on long range forecasting...

 

 

 

 

Jokes, I'm liking the forecast Chiono!

Edited November 28, 2013 by Barry95

[Captain Shortwave]

Excellent forecast Ed, seems very sensible and actually seems to agree with the thoughts of many others (except maybe less extreme  )

Lets hope we get a nice cold and snowy winter.

[Summer Sun]

well that sounds a tad disappointing after all the talk of the worst winter for decades on the cards.  Nothing amazing in that forecast to be honest.  Although i am not sure why people take the time and effort with forecasting months in advance when it is proven that we cannot forecast the weather a week in advance let alone a month.  Seems a waste of time and money to me.

 

The bulk of that talk has come from the Express mainly though

[Jax]

A lot of thought and a sensible LRF Chiono, have you thought of sending it to the Daily Express - they could make it sound so much more dramatic!

Explosions, car chases, space ships, snow...