North West Regional Discussion 19/11/2013 --->

[feb1991blizzard]

There is zero margin for error even on the ECM, I would think that the most likely outcome is a glancing blow northerly where there isn't time for Showers to get going over the NW before the flow is cut off from the West.

 

I have to say I agree on the zero margin for error comment although GFS has moved a tiny bit Westwards on the 18z.

 

I have to say I am a bigger fan of Easterlies than Northerlies and always have been, but anything is a bonus given we could have been sitting here talking about one of your favourite zonal Westerly spectaculars if the signals a few weeks ago were anything to go by.

Edited November 30, 2013 by feb1991blizzard

[Gaz1985]

Anyone picking up lightening flashes over the irish sea quite high up so i dont think it was fireworks ?...

 

UFO? 

[Chris.R]

You're all forgetting disturbances in the flow

[feb1991blizzard]

You're all forgetting disturbances in the flow

 

 

Yes but they are likely to track down the Eastern side, even with the ECM (best case scenario currently), even Steve murr would be lucky to get something from this.

 

[feb1991blizzard]

18z GFS are absolutely dyer, im afraid I doubt I will be posting in this thread again after next weekend until January, although that will probably come as a great relief to most of you!!!!!

Edited December 1, 2013 by feb1991blizzard

[iand61]

The dawn of another day and it looks like the first day of winter in these parts is starting on a cloudy, fairly mild note.

Certainly different from yesterday's sunny, frosty start.

[WillinGlossop]

Yes yesterdy was gorgeous....suprised there was ice everywhere and quite a thick frost it was still 1.5c at midday..... Much milder 7 c atm but sunset was spectacular last night.....

[Chris.R]

Not long now. 5 days, and we'll have something to talk about. i'm sure of that.

[itsnowjoke]

Chilly out this morning.

Sunny though.

[Chris.R]

We're going to get battered on friday; and i'm not a cod so that's saying something.

-10/-12 uppers oooooooooo!

Edited December 1, 2013 by Chris R

[iand61]

What started as a cloudy day soon turned into a sunny one up here but with signs of some mist lower down the valley.

Certainly decent to be out and about and after being stuck inside yesterday I think that is the plan.

[Never snows where i live]

Whats the chances of birkenhead seeing some snow eh guys this thur/fri?

[Chris.R]

Whats the chances of birkenhead seeing some snow eh guys this thur/fri?

The way it's going, very high. Likewise for here. 

[Never snows where i live]

The way it's going, very high. Likewise for here.

Ta mate. Hopefully it stays like that.

[Backtrack]

At 5 days out, those -10C uppers could easily be replaced with +5C uppers. Significant amount of caution advised. As it stands, I wouldn't be expecting much in the way of settling snow.

 

Remember, we live in NW England, land of the surreal, strange, and damn right awful weather.

Edited December 1, 2013 by Backtrack

[Snow free zone]

If you live south of the M62 its currently looking like you have a good chance of seeing some decent snow showers later in in the week. Back edge snow from the front that passes through also looks like a good bet if you are away from the coast with a bit of height, usual suspects to the east of the M6.

[I Cumbria Marra I]

if the models dont change too much the far south west of north west England will get a couple of inches i reckon. i think there will be a little backedge snow aswell.

[dodge]

Think I'll probably be too far inland for this one (snow wise), but it will be a shock to the system with bitterly cold northerly winds.  Icy mornings too.

[itsnowjoke]

7c here dry and bright.

Just put up the Christmas decs.

[cheshire snow]

Friday

 

Cheshire Gap streamer..........stop it LOL

 

C.S

[Ian Brown]

Friday

 

Cheshire Gap streamer..........stop it LOL

 

C.S

 

Well that looks unlikely now given the UKMO and the GFS has zero margin for error with what it shows.

[cheshire snow]

Ian

 

I posted before the UKMO and GFS came out and I am quite capable of looking at the charts Thank you.....and yes as you

say looks unlikely at the MOMENT

 

C.S

[Miamay]

Hope we get snow friday here. Net weather shows 64% chance of snow early morning and evening !!

[Ian Brown]

Hope we get snow friday here. Net weather shows 64% chance of snow early morning and evening !!

 

ECM and GFS give us a chance but any more Eastward correction and it won't be happening. Beyond that it looks like the long game of chasing an easterly or the push me/pull me synoptics of LP to the NW and HP to the NE.

[feb1991blizzard]

At 5 days out, those -10C uppers could easily be replaced with +5C uppers. Significant amount of caution advised. As it stands, I wouldn't be expecting much in the way of settling snow.

 

Remember, we live in NW England, land of the surreal, strange, and damn right awful weather.

 

I will put my life on it that you will not see +5 uppers on Friday, you may see snow showers, in fact I would say 90% you will see a flake of snow between Thursday and Sunday.