December 2013 CET forecasts -- 2013/14 Competition

[reef]

Still 6.8C to the 23rd:

 

http://www.metoffice.gov.uk/hadobs/hadcet/cet_info_mean.html

[Don]

Well, December 2013 will certainly go down as a mild month, although it hasn't felt particularly mild, especially in all the wind and rain!  A pity, but lets hope for something colder later in the Winter.

Edited December 24, 2013 by Don

[Summer Sun]

And we remain on 6.8c to the 24th

 

2.0c above the 61 to 90 average

[Summer Sun]

6.7c to the 25th

 

1.9c above the 61 to 90 average

[MeteoMadrid]

Hello friends from Madrid.

 

Minimun temperature: 0,7º

Temperature at 01:20 pm: 6,5º

Windy day

[BornFromTheVoid]

A minimum today of -0.8C, with maxima likely to reach above 6C, so tomorrow should see a drop to 6.6C.

 

After that, the 06z GFS has the CET at

6.6C to the 27th (6.2)

6.5C to the 28th (4.9)

6.4C to the 29th (2.5)

6.4C to the 30th (6.0)

6.4C to the 31st (7.0)

[Summer Sun]

6.7c to the 26th

 

1.9c above the 61 to 90 average

[Summer Sun]

6.6c to the 27th

 

1.8c above the 61 to 90 average

Edited December 28, 2013 by Summer Sun

[Summer Sun]

6.5c to the 28th

 

1.8c above the 61 to 90 average

[The PIT]

Sunny Sheffield at 6.2C

[Summer Sun]

6.5c to the 29th

 

1.8c above the 61 to 90 average

[damianslaw]

After a run of 5 below or average Decembers, I suppose it was time we endured a very mild one. Its been quite an unusual year with very variable CET monthly values, Dec, Oct, July being much milder than normal, March much colder, and a run of near average or a little below average elsewhere. Not sure the last time November returned slightly below against very mild Octobers and Decembers- an odd combination.

[Scorcher]

Damian- I'm pretty sure December 2011 finished up 1.2C above the long term average and was the warmest since 2006. There have been plenty of mild or very mild months mixed in with colder ones over the last few winters.

[Harve]

Provisionally not a single CET day below average for the whole of December, perhaps?

[The PIT]

Sunny Sheffield at 6.4c +1.9C above normal. I don't think it will change very much today so should be the final figure.

[Lettucing Gutted]

Not sure the last time November returned slightly below against very mild Octobers and Decembers- an odd combination.

The last time a below average November occurred in between a very mild October and December was 1985.

[Summer Sun]

6.5c to the 30th

 

1.8c above the 61 to 90 average

[Weather-history]

December warmer than November is possible.

Last occasion was 1993

[Don]

Damian- I'm pretty sure December 2011 finished up 1.2C above the long term average and was the warmest since 2006. There have been plenty of mild or very mild months mixed in with colder ones over the last few winters.

 

December 2011 had a CET of 6.0C, 1.3C above the 61-90 average and 0.9C above the 71-00, so yes a mild month.  However, December 2013 looks like it will finish higher than that of 2011.  Lets hope January and February will save the day, although it's looking likely that February will have the best chance of doing that this Winter.

Edited December 31, 2013 by Don

[damianslaw]

The last time a below average November occurred in between a very mild October and December was 1985.

 

 

Thanks for the answer. As I thought quite some time ago. It is quite rare to see a chilly November inbetween very mild Octobers and Decembers. Incidentally winter 85/86 saw a very mild December followed by a slightly colder than normal January and then one of the coldest months of the 20th century. Did a major SSW take place that winter? - proves how a zonal mild start to winter can turn into a blocked very cold latter part to winter.

 

From a personal perspective I'll be glad to see the back of December 2013 - a preety dire month in all respects, especially those who have been affected by flooding and the severe gales. Christmas 2013 the third washout mild one in a row - payback for the three wintry ones in 08-10 I feel...

[I remember Atlantic 252]

my guess was shocking, going to be way out with 5.5C, gone for 6.5C for Jan, looks closer I think

[Summer Sun]

December is confirmed as 6.34C

 

So well above average for the first month of winter

[North-Easterly Blast]

Hadley December 2013 CET is out, its 6.3*C, or more precisely 6.34*C.  Certainly a mild month overall, but still not in the top 20 warmest Decembers ever - 30 Decembers were warmer in the CET record, and 12 Decembers were warmer in the last 100 years.

 

It is a striking fact that whilst all the other months of the year have seen a CET in the top 20 warmest ever in the last two decades or so, and a number of months three or four times, December is the only month that has not - in fact the last time a notably mild December occurred was back in 1988.  With a complete lack of cold weather in Dec 2013 I thought that we could make a top 20 December, but it wasn't to be.  If the CET could have got to 6.8 then we would have seen a top 20 mild December, but it didn't happen. 

 

What was very striking about Dec 2013 was that temperatures never changed much all month - OK there was no cold weather at all, but on the other hand, there was no extremely mild spells either - temps remained above average all month but with no notable mild spells.  Most Decembers with CETs in the 6*C region see some fluctuation and some colder weather at some point - for instance, Dec 1985 had a CET of 6.3 but still had a cold few days late in the month - it even looked like being a month to rival 1974 up until Xmas but by then a change to much colder weather put pay to that by some way.  Decembers 1994 and 2006 all had CETs well up in the 6s but both had some cold frosty weather just before Xmas.  Dec 1986 (6.2) also managed something colder just before Xmas with a little snow for higher areas.  Dec 1971 (6.6) was a bit colder in the opening and closing days of the month I think.

 

December 2013 will just go down as a very bland, uneventful month weatherwise, both synoptically and in terms of the weather we experienced, rather than for being a notably mild month.  I cannot think of another December with such little variation in temperature as Dec 2013 was.

[Kentish Man]

NEB - I'm not sure people in my part of Kent will regard Dec 2013 as a "very bland, uneventful month" heralding as did the worst floods since September 1968. Temperature wise though the points you make are fair enough. 

[damianslaw]

Hadley December 2013 CET is out, its 6.3*C, or more precisely 6.34*C.  Certainly a mild month overall, but still not in the top 20 warmest Decembers ever - 30 Decembers were warmer in the CET record, and 12 Decembers were warmer in the last 100 years.

 

It is a striking fact that whilst all the other months of the year have seen a CET in the top 20 warmest ever in the last two decades or so, and a number of months three or four times, December is the only month that has not - in fact the last time a notably mild December occurred was back in 1988.  With a complete lack of cold weather in Dec 2013 I thought that we could make a top 20 December, but it wasn't to be.  If the CET could have got to 6.8 then we would have seen a top 20 mild December, but it didn't happen. 

 

What was very striking about Dec 2013 was that temperatures never changed much all month - OK there was no cold weather at all, but on the other hand, there was no extremely mild spells either - temps remained above average all month but with no notable mild spells.  Most Decembers with CETs in the 6*C region see some fluctuation and some colder weather at some point - for instance, Dec 1985 had a CET of 6.3 but still had a cold few days late in the month - it even looked like being a month to rival 1974 up until Xmas but by then a change to much colder weather put pay to that by some way.  Decembers 1994 and 2006 all had CETs well up in the 6s but both had some cold frosty weather just before Xmas.  Dec 1986 (6.2) also managed something colder just before Xmas with a little snow for higher areas.  Dec 1971 (6.6) was a bit colder in the opening and closing days of the month I think.

 

December 2013 will just go down as a very bland, uneventful month weatherwise, both synoptically and in terms of the weather we experienced, rather than for being a notably mild month.  I cannot think of another December with such little variation in temperature as Dec 2013 was.

 

Agree temperature wise - bland and uneventful, but in terms of the weather, quite easily the most wild wet month since the infamous November of 2009. Like Nov 09, not a month many would like to see repeated any time soon, our weather has been as volatile as it can be these last 4 weeks after what was a very benign November in the main.