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Roger J Smith

December 2013 CET forecasts -- 2013/14 Competition

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6.1 to the 2nd   +0.9 anomaly (61-90)   -0.1 anomaly (81-10)
 
Min today of 5.5 and max likely around 8.0 should rise to 6.3 tomorrow (much higher min than was forecast yesterday).
 
Met office forecasts for 5 days and GFS 0z ensemble mean after that.

3rd 6.3   (6.8 )
4th    6.1 (5.4)
5th 6.0 (5.3)
6th 5.6 (3.8 )
7th 5.4 (4.0)
 
10th 4.9  -0.2 (61-90) -0.4 (81-10)  
 
15th 4.2
 
17th 4.0   -0.9 (61-90) -0.9  (81-10)

 

Marked cooler set of ensembles than yesterday. They changed the temps for the 1st so it droped to 5.7.

 

One other thing to note is that there is a bit of a disconnect between the sorts of Temps the GFS is saying for the  cross over between where I use the Met forecasts. GFS is 1-2 degrees lower than the Met. 

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I'd say today will average around 6.6C.

After that, the 12z GFS op run has the CET at

 

6.3C to the 3rd (6.6)

6.1C to the 4th (5.6)

5.9C to the 5th (5.2)

5.4C to the 6th (2.9)

5.1C to the 7th (2.9)

5.2C to the 8th (6.0)

5.3C to the 9th (6.0)

5.2C to the 10th (4.8]

 

So slightly above the 61-90 average and slightly below the 81-10 average to the 10th.

 

Here's how it would look compared to the historical records and averages.

 

Posted Image

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6.7 to the 3rd +0.9 anomaly (61-90)   -0.1 anomaly (81-10)

 

Again they have revised the temps for the first two days, up this time. Not sure what is going on maybe tomorrow it will go down again!

 

Min today of 4.5 and max likely around 8.0 should fall to 6.6 tomorrow.

 

Met office forecasts for 5 days

4th    6.6 (6.2)

5th 6.4 (5.7)

6th 5.9 (3.3)

7th 5.8 (5.0)

8th 5.9   (6.7)

 

10th 6.1  +1.1 (61-90) +0.8 (81-10)  

 

15th 5.9   +1.0 (61-90)   +0.9 (81-10)

 

19th 5.8   +1.0 (61-90) +0.9  (81-10)

 

 

So Ensemble average flipping around a bit, significantly warmer run this time  along with the Met office changes.

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6.4c to the 5th

 

1.2c above the 61 to 90 average

 +0.5 anomaly (81-10)

 

Min today of 3.1 and max likely around 6.5 should fall to 6.2 tomorrow.

 

Met office forecasts for 5 days

6th 6.2 (4.8 )

7th 6.1 (5.9)

8th 6.4   (8.2)

9th   6.6 (8.3)

10th 6.5 (5.9)  +1.6 (61-90) +1.2 (81-10)  

 

15th 6.4   +1.4 (61-90)   +1.3 (81-10)

 

20th 6.1   +1.3 (61-90) +1.3  (81-10)

21st 6.0

 

Warmer than average remains the trend for December.

 

 December CET needs to finish over 5.3 to beat 61-90 annual average for all 2013.

Needs to be over 8 to beat 71-00 annual average.

Needs to be over 11.5 to beat the 81-10 average.

 

Needless to say the latter two are looking unlikely.

 

Didn't they revise upwards at the start of November, too, only to revise back down the following day?

Yes. They seem to have settled now on the current figures. Wether that means they will get larger revisions when they go to the official figues at end of month or not we will just have to wait and see.

Edited by SomeLikeItHot
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Minimum today of 5.5C, while maxima look like reaching above 10.5C, so an an increase to 6.5C is likely on tomorrows update.

 

After that, the 06z GFS has the CET at

6.7C to the 9th (8.3)

6.6C to the 10th (5.6)

6.5C to the 11th (4.9)

6.4C to the 12th (6.0)

6.6C to the 13th (9.1)

6.8C to the 14th (8.9)

7.0C to the 15th (9.1)

 

A fairly mild start, a small risk of reaching the 25 mildest first 15 days (requires 7.3C to the 15th).

 

Here's how we compare to the daily extremes and averages from 1772-2012, the provisional CET data is yellow and forecast from the GFS in orange

 

Posted Image

 

No very mild days yet, but a few are forecast for late next week.

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My punt at the CET value looks out of the question already, unfortunately.

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Yeah. It would take a savage cold spell late in the month to get near my guess, should the expected conditions materialise/continue.

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No very mild days yet, but a few are forecast for late next week.

 

Yes not many very mild days but some had it very mild today- 12C was widespread today and one or two spots saw 13C.

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Didn't expect the cold to be shunted out of the way so easily, my 4.9c has already busted on the cold side and by some distance, expecting above 6c now although it looks like if called the synoptical setup for the second half right.

 

And a record breaker from my own skill (or lack of it) point of view - the earliest time ive called a CET forecast of mine bust, knew i had busted 3 days into the month!!!

Edited by feb1991blizzard

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My punt at the CET value looks out of the question already, unfortunately.

 

It looks as if many of us will be in the same boat. In fact here in the far south east we are still having cold nights so our monthly average is currently lower than places to the north and west of us. I expected HP to be more anchored over the top of us than to our south east and also with a chilly November CET of 6.2C I certainly wasn't expecting a December warmer than this which, based on current model output, could well happen. 

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A 6C+ CET looking likely at the moment for this month?

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Minimum today is 2.3C while maxima look like being near 7C, so a decrease to 6.6C is likely tomorrow.

 

After that, the 06z GFS has the CET at

6.6C to the 12th (6.9)

6.7C to the 13th (8.3)

6.8C to the 14th (7.1)

7.0C to the 15th (9.8]

7.1C to the 16th (9.5)

6.9C to the 17th (4.0)

7.0C to the 18th (7.7)

 

December now shifting into the very mild category methinks. I wouldn't say a 6C+ CET is likely quite yet. If we were on 7.0C to the 18th, just 5 days averaging 0C would send us back down to 5.5C, not to mention the inevitable end of month corrections.

 

Anyway, the month so far compared to historical averages and extremes, with the above daily CET forecast.

 

Posted Image

 

 

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My guess of 5.0c is looking too low

 

Just typical when I go for a high CET it comes in below when I go for a fairly low one its probably going to be a good bit higher

 

Sods law

 

Posted Image

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Would say on current model output, CET will peak near 7.2 around Monday then will drift erratically downward through the sixes perhaps rallying to 6.5 around Christmas Day and slumping back towards 6 end of month with 5.9 (the missing link) very much in play.

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