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Roger J Smith

December 2013 CET forecasts -- 2013/14 Competition

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It never ends, does it?

 

 

 

CET averages and extremes

12.9 ... warmest daily mean, 12th 1994

8.1 ... warmest Decembers 1834 and 1974
7.7 ... third warmest 1852

5.1 ... average for 1971-2000

4.8 ... Dec 2012
4.7 ... average for 1961-90
4.6 ... average for 1981-2010, also 1901-2000
4.4 ... average for 2001-2012
4.1 ... average for 1659-2012
4.0 ... average for 1801-1900
3.9 ... average for 1701-1800
3.4 ... average for 1659-1700

-0.5 ... third coldest 1676
-0.7 ... second coldest 2010
-0.8 ... coldest December 1890

-10.8 ... lowest daily mean 25th 1796
_____________________________________

The cold December of 2010 left a mark, it is unusual in the other months to find 1981-2010 or 2001-2012 below other earlier periods.

The mean December CET temperature for each date ranges from 5.12 on the 5th to 3.40 on the 26th (from all data 1772-2011, have not updated this yet for 2012 but changes would be very small) ... in the more recent 30-year period 1981-2010, the highest daily mean was 6.26 on the 5th, and the lowest was 3.75 on the 20th. In that same period the coldest day of any month was 14 Feb at 3.36 followed by 7 Jan at 3.45 C.  

Edited by Roger J Smith

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4.7 please.

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I'm going against all the long range guesses and models and going for 2.9c A cold start followed by a mild blip before coming colder again in the final week or so.

Edited by Sceptical Inquirer

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I'm going in at  3.9c think it's going to be cold

Edited by BARRY

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4.2ºC

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4.4C please, just below average I think, the second half milder than the first. Unfortunately I think a white Christmas is unlikely, unless frost counts

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If I had to choose now I would go high, but I really don't understand why anyone would make a prediction right now with such a volatile situation, which should be at least some way to being resolved by the 30th November!

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