Model Output Discussion 18th Nov.2013-12z onwards.

[Cheshire Freeze]

Not a big difference between ECM and UKMO at 120h. I think this will be fairly close to the final outcome for day 5.

 

Subtle but potentially important differences around the west coast of Greenland. Let's see what effect that has on the outcome of the day 6 chart.

[Summer Sun]

ECM has the high moving over the uk at t144

 

 

Less cold in the west

 

Edited November 18, 2013 by Summer Sun

[tight isobar]

Out 144 and HP heading sislap bang over ourselves...

[IDO]

ECM yesterday 12z:

Today:

GFS T144 as well:

[Geordiesnow]

Still see the trend of the high trying to edge in although the ECM is still kind of more or less is sticking to its original output that a Northerly flow won't be too far away at least. 

 

Be interesting what the output will show in a few days time, can't ever rule out changes that may favour a more cold outlook with snow but the likely set up and my opinion has not changed is for the high to very slowly topple in. 

[Joe Levy]

Trust me on this one. This pattern will stick for a while. Eventually the high will allow in the west or south west.

This is a model output forum. You need evidence to back up claims like that! There is a very large area of low pressure to the west and a sinking area of the vortex to the east. Who can possibly say what will happen, even if this particular chart came true!

[Timmytour]

Few weeks....? Got any evidence to suggest it will last that long apart from assumptions?

O

Once you get high pressure sitting over the UK at the end of November you know that winter's not going to amount to very much

 

Edited November 18, 2013 by Timmytour

[Summer Sun]

t168 sees the high shifting a bit further east

 

 

Coldest in the east

 

[snowmadchrisuk]

AT 168 The High is extending NE, Has to be a good thing .

[Cheshire Freeze]

O

Once you get high pressure sitting over the UK at the end of November you know that winter's not going to amount to very much

 

 

Yeah....an absolutely terrible omen......or not...

 

 

 

We all know what happened following on from these charts....

Edited November 18, 2013 by CreweCold

[Mucka]

Blocked but as long as the jet is going over the top we are going to struggle to drag in any Arctic air. Not sure even the low pressure on the continent can help us drag in a decent Easterly, at least not for a good while. Still, a very seasonal chart with plenty of frost  and hopefully sunny or foggy days if that is your thing.

 

Edited November 18, 2013 by Mucka

[Chris K]

O

Once you get high pressure sitting over the UK at the end of November you know that winter's not going to amount to very much

Hmm it COULD take a while to shift but that depends on the over NH pattern in my opinion. I certainly don't think it would last 3 months....

[Joe Levy]

Hmm it COULD take a while to shift but that depends on the over NH pattern in my opinion. I certainly don't think it would last 3 months....

I could be wrong, so someone correct me if I am, but I am pretty sure that was sarcasm in the original post haha!

Edited November 18, 2013 by Joe Levy

[Cheshire Freeze]

Blocked but as long as the jet is going over the top we are going to struggle to drag in any Arctic air.

 

 

I think you may be underestimating how cold it would be at the surface. -4 to -6 uppers combined with a slack flow and minimal solar heating= temps not far above freezing for some. Festive at least.

[shaky]

What is happening at 168 hours??looks like the low in the atlantic is trying to undercut and heights elongating north to south.maybe an easterly on this run?

[Summer Sun]

t192 sees the high strengthening

 

 

Remaining cold for many

 

 

With low pressure to the north and south of the UK the high could only really move NE

Edited November 18, 2013 by Summer Sun

[Chris K]

I could be wrong, so someone correct me if I am, but I am pretty sure that was sarcasm in the original post haha!

Well forgive me if so but it is hard to tell from forum text! :PPersonally if the high settles over the UK it could at least provide some crisp sunshine if set up inour favour...I just hope it doesn't end up with raw cloudy easterlies... Edited November 18, 2013 by Chris K

[karlos1983]

positives are this is miles from Zonal and the continent is cooling nicely

 

[Mucka]

I think you may be underestimating how cold it would be at the surface. -4 to -6 uppers combined with a slack flow and minimal solar heating= temps not far above freezing for some. Festive at least.

 

I should of been clearer. It will be cold at the surfaace and the uppers will be chilly but we will struggle to pull in any Arctic air from such a set up.

Edited November 18, 2013 by Mucka

[snowmadchrisuk]

as I thought, dragging in an Easterly by +192

[tight isobar]

Cold and dry sums up ecm...intrest how she ends!!!??

[karlos1983]

as I thought, dragging in an Easterly by +192

 

and its cold there by then, so a better chance of wintry precip, warm seas as well will help generate big showers I'd imagine? Could be wrong, I'm no expert.

[Snowy L]

Low pressure building over Spain, that High's going to get sucked Northeast and all it takes is a shortwave to cut off our high from the Atlantic high.

[MR EXTREMES]

yep my slider idea was of the mark its funny at one point it looked like high pressure over us was going to be in a not so good position but the flipped round to give almost and easterly with cold from Europe not mega but like cold crew suggest wintry enough.

[Smiler1709]

The most encouraging thing out of the ECM run is the cold really setting in across Europe, quality cold to tap into. But also keeping us in a very seasonal spell on settled weather and nice sharp frosts.