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Model Output Discussion 18th Nov.2013-12z onwards.


phil nw.

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Posted
  • Location: st albans
  • Location: st albans

FI being driven by the Aleutian High pushing into the Pole and splitting the PV. This has shown up a few times now.Would love to see something backing this up in the Strat thread.

 

too early MS. it looks like any strat response will be reacting to the trop forcing. to expect to see ecm day 10 upper strat charts reacting to a trop ridge that isnt getting going until day 7/8 is a bit premature.  the fi gfs strat charts take the core of the vortex to canada and despite the trop being split, the strat vortex is stretched at best.

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Posted
  • Location: winscombe north somerset
  • Weather Preferences: action weather
  • Location: winscombe north somerset

Well towards the end of the GFS run i find some encouraging signs but at this stage plenty more runs of GFS are needed to see if a pattern emerges .tonights ECM could give us a clue as to whats possibly in the far outlook .so pressure staying high and i expect at this stage to see the end of november still with quiet weather .looking at gfs at around the 12 day range the vortex to our far north is showing a weakness ,Thats my big straw at the moment ,perhaps the models will give us coldies some cheer  soon .And 13 wks of winter to come .Posted Image

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Posted
  • Location: Eastbourne and Larnaca,Cyprus .
  • Location: Eastbourne and Larnaca,Cyprus .

The UKMO certainly looks more interesting or lets say less boring at 144hrs! not great but has at least a little bit of potential. Not to drone on too much regarding the upstream pattern but for those who read my morning NOAA update, again here we see this will it or won't it phase saga with upstream energy. I know people might think why is some shortwave energy being ejected ne out of Mexico so important, well the uncertainty is whether this phases with a shortwave running east out of Canada.

 

Compare the eastern USA at 144hrs between the GFS and UKMO.  At the time the PV is moving towards Siberia we need to see early phasing and more amplification upstream.

 

All coldies out there start praying that the ECM phases those shortwaves like the UKMO producing one deeper feature, in turn a bit more amplified!

Edited by nick sussex
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Posted
  • Location: hertfordshire
  • Location: hertfordshire

To much despondancy in here. Alright it does not look to good from a cold perspective in

the near future but its only the 21 of November which is still Autumn. What should be blatently

obvious now though is the fact that any local wave breaking, heat flux etc will have little effect

blocking wise unless it has the amplitude to effect mid stratosphere (30mb) at least. Anything

less will probably result in two or three day topplers at best with the unlikely hood of any cold

blocked pattern developing.

The latest run by the GFS out in deep FI with blocking over the Arctic would only come about

with enough amplitude to do just this. But for what its worth I am still confident of a severe

winter and therefore expect to see much stronger stratosphere interference from wave

breaking etc.

 

Just seen the UKMO t144 chart that looks more hopefull of something more interesting.

Edited by cooling climate
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Posted
  • Location: Beccles, Suffolk.
  • Weather Preferences: Thunder, snow, heat, sunshine...
  • Location: Beccles, Suffolk.

And, just like it usually does; the change - when/if it occurs - will catch nearly everyone by surprise...How often do FI charts ever come to pass?

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Posted
  • Location: Essex, Southend-On-Sea
  • Weather Preferences: Warm, bright summers and Cold, snowy winters
  • Location: Essex, Southend-On-Sea

ECM

 

Posted Image

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Posted
  • Location: Essex, Southend-On-Sea
  • Weather Preferences: Warm, bright summers and Cold, snowy winters
  • Location: Essex, Southend-On-Sea

ECM at 168

 

Posted Image

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Posted
  • Location: Essex, Southend-On-Sea
  • Weather Preferences: Warm, bright summers and Cold, snowy winters
  • Location: Essex, Southend-On-Sea

If this were the GFS I would say it was about to set-up one of it's outrageous Northerlies ! 

So would I,

 

But the ECM isn't as loopy as that in FI.

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Posted
  • Location: Essex, Southend-On-Sea
  • Weather Preferences: Warm, bright summers and Cold, snowy winters
  • Location: Essex, Southend-On-Sea

Bit of a toppler.

 

Posted Image

Posted Image

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Posted
  • Location: Cardiff/Reading Uni
  • Weather Preferences: Snow, Sun, Heat, Cold,T/storms via Spanish plumes *rare*
  • Location: Cardiff/Reading Uni

This is quite interesting from the ECM:

Posted Image

 

50% of the GFS ensembles were going for a similar setup at the same time period (the ECM is kind of a mid way solution):

Posted ImagePosted Image

Not much support from the other models apart from the NAVGEM and BOM though.

Edited by Panayiotis
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Posted
  • Location: Darlington
  • Weather Preferences: Warm dry summers
  • Location: Darlington

Both GFS and ECM in agreement that Wednesday should be a mild day for many with temps widely in double figures (10 and 11c for a lot of England and wales maybe as high as 13c in the south west)

 

Posted ImagePosted Image

Posted Image

 

t216 from ECM sees the high moving across once more

 

Posted ImagePosted Image

Edited by Summer Sun
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Posted
  • Location: STEVENAGE, HERTS (100M ASL)
  • Location: STEVENAGE, HERTS (100M ASL)

Both GFS and ECM in agreement that Wednesday should be a mild day for many with temps widely in the low teens

Posted ImagePosted Image

Posted Image

t216 from ECM sees the high moving across once more

Posted ImagePosted Image

I love your enthusiasm for warm weather Gav but how is that widespread low teens? Not a single 13 as far as I can see!
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Posted
  • Location: Darlington
  • Weather Preferences: Warm dry summers
  • Location: Darlington

I love your enthusiasm for warm weather Gav but how is that widespread low teens? Not a single 13 as far as I can see!

 

Corrected now should have put double figures

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Posted
  • Location: st albans
  • Location: st albans

Both GFS and ECM in agreement that Wednesday should be a mild day for many with temps widely in the low teens

 

 

 

 

 

i wouldnt assume anything re temps under a block at the back end of november. could be cold and foggy or warm and sunny. or just cloudy, average and damp.

 

ecm NH plot shows the west siberian vortex fighting to send energy back towards the pole and canada beyond. this is where it begins to get interesting on a macro scale. currently, i would say the vortex will prove to be too strong. however, it wouldnt  take much to flip to those gfs fantasy NH set ups we saw on the ops and ens over the past few runs.

 

and nick, i admire you trying to make a 'silk purse out of a sows ear', but i think you'd be better watching the cricket highlights and playing a longer game than that particular shortwave. even if it behaves, it hardly makes a massive difference this side.

Edited by bluearmy
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Posted
  • Location: Darlington
  • Weather Preferences: Warm dry summers
  • Location: Darlington

Next Wednesday looks like a mixed day with some pockets of cloud but also some clearer spells especially in the east not wall to wall sun by any means but certainly clear enough for the sun to get through providing it isn't foggy

 

Posted ImagePosted Image

Edited by Summer Sun
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Posted
  • Location: Morecambe
  • Location: Morecambe

i wouldnt assume anything re temps under a block at the back end of november. could be cold and foggy or warm and sunny. or just cloudy, average and damp.

 

I suspect look at the charts, it will be the latter, looks cloudy and wet for midweek hence the words high pressure dominating is a bit surprising too see but we should see some influence from the high through the weekend at least and maybe into Monday also. 

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