Jump to content

Model Output Discussion 18th Nov.2013-12z onwards.


Recommended Posts

I wonder if we are getting closer to a cold blast early next month, the Ecm 00z op run is looking promising at T+216 hours, hopefully it can build on this with a full on blast with more of a NE'ly tilt with the atlantic high adjusting further west.

post-4783-0-87665700-1385028033_thumb.pn

post-4783-0-37523700-1385028040_thumb.pn

post-4783-0-48188800-1385028063_thumb.pn

Edited by Frosty.
  • Like 3
Link to post
Share on other sites
  • Replies 2.9k
  • Created
  • Last Reply

Top Posters In This Topic

Yes the Isle of Scilly but the fast majorly of areas showing below average in the 1c-7c range and of course where fog persist we could have some freezing days

 

Bleak is a word that has been used ?

 

Depending on the position of the high of course but we are looking at temps below the long term average in the foreseeable

 

Cloud cover will have an impact in the diurnal range but in the short term freezing fog and some really cold days are likely in some favoured spots.

 

I don’t see any Bartlett or any South Westerly flows or any +10c way out and beyond FI for the fast majority of the UK.

 

The cold pool to our East has left the Black sea and heads west and there is plenty of interest popping up in F1.

 

Bleak to me is +14c light rain on 1st December

 

Posted Image

 

No Barty??  Bleak it will be then for you IF this verifies....Posted Image

Link to post
Share on other sites

The ECM ensemble is closer to the GFS Op and its own ensemble this morning by building pressure across mainland Europe and the UK

ECM Op seems to be on its own

Posted Image

ECM ensemble

Posted Image

GFS Op and Ensemble

Posted ImagePosted Image

If the ECM Op run back tracks to GFS this evening it won't be a surprise

more like if the gfs op run backtracks towards its 00z mean then that would not be a surprise cos the op is showing the high to be a little to far south.
Link to post
Share on other sites

No sign of any drastic change to the MLB outlook. naefs gradually pulls the blocking west through week 2 as a mean north scandi trough deepens and begins to affect most of nw europe, the jet taking a nw/se tilt. the end of week 2 sees that amplification to our west continue to show in the spreads. those steller gfs fi ops from yesterday may not have been so outlandish !!

Link to post
Share on other sites

Not really the right thread, but can I ask what point you are trying to make?

Thought it was interesting how before the use of supper computers etc. how patterns from the past was looked at to predicted possible up and coming weather. Point is what ever the charts show in fl a weather pattern in the past can give us a clue of an up and coming weather event!
Link to post
Share on other sites

Thought it was interesting how before the use of supper computers etc. how patterns from the past was looked at to predicted possible up and coming weather.Point is what ever the charts show in fl a weather pattern in the past can give us a clue of an up and coming weather event!

Fair enough erv and an interesting read it is. To be honest I thought you might be trying to draw parallels with the bitter Winter of 63, but of course that was 62/63 and not 63/64. 

  • Like 1
Link to post
Share on other sites

Well, there is a little change in the 06z run, but I don't know how much it could affect to our weather.

 

We can see a change in the jet stream profile

 

00z

 

Posted Image

 

 

06z

 

Posted Image

 

 

 

 

It's moving upwards now, and the change comes from a little low that can be seen here

 

Posted Image

 

Due to the tilt of the low instead of pushing the High to the east it helps it to move upwards

Edited by Jonan92
Link to post
Share on other sites

more like if the gfs op run backtracks towards its 00z mean then that would not be a surprise cos the op is showing the high to be a little to far south.

It's 9 days away!! You can't say anything is a little to n, s e or w at that kind of range.

Link to post
Share on other sites

Not really the right thread, but can I ask what point you are trying to make? 

 

Come on Shed, that is hardly helpful and welcoming for a new member. Posted Image

 

Point him to the right thread and let us discuss there as it is interesting. Personally I find the analog method of model watching has been quite useful for this year anyway.

  • Like 7
Link to post
Share on other sites

Come on Shed, that is hardly helpful and welcoming for a new member. Posted Image

 

Point him to the right thread and let us discuss there as it is interesting. Personally I find the analog method of model watching has been quite useful for this year anyway.

 

Perhaps you missed my reply to erv....which he incidentally 'liked'

 

Posted 18 minutes ago

erv, on 21 Nov 2013 - 10:06, said:Posted Image

Thought it was interesting how before the use of supper computers etc. how patterns from the past was looked at to predicted possible up and coming weather.

Point is what ever the charts show in fl a weather pattern in the past can give us a clue of an up and coming weather event!

Fair enough erv and an interesting read it is. To be honest I thought you might be trying to draw parallels with the bitter Winter of 63, but of course that was 62/63 and not 63/64. 

Link to post
Share on other sites

 

Perhaps you missed my reply to erv....which he incidentally 'liked'

 

Posted 18 minutes ago

erv, on 21 Nov 2013 - 10:06, said:Posted Image

Fair enough erv and an interesting read it is. To be honest I thought you might be trying to draw parallels with the bitter Winter of 63, but of course that was 62/63 and not 63/64. 

 

 

I did indeed. Posted Image Writing at the time - incidentally the analogs pointed to this month being below average when at the beginning of the month it all looked as is the figure would be well above.

 

I do think it has a place alongside our other tools in model discussion - maybe not this fast moving thread though.

  • Like 5
Link to post
Share on other sites

I did indeed. Posted Image Writing at the time - incidentally the analogs pointed to this month being below average when at the beginning of the month it all looked as is the figure would be well above.

 

I do think it has a place alongside our other tools in model discussion - maybe not this fast moving thread though.

No probs GF...not been a big fan of pattern matching myself, at least not longer term, but to each their own I guess.  To be fair though I was never a fan of strat or solar influences, but I've had to have a rethink there, so never say never I guess...

  • Like 1
Link to post
Share on other sites

Like it or not there is no denying the excellent inter run consistancy of GFS, even at T+240hrs....with Barty still very much in place.

 

Posted Image

 

This is a pretty good indication of what was said earlier this week regarding weather from the S or W being much more likely (but of course by no means guaranteed) to verify post T+144hrs than anything from the N or E.

 

Time will tell of course, but even now I suspect there is a pretty good chance that this 'general pattern' will be in place come Dec 1st.

Edited by shedhead
  • Like 2
Link to post
Share on other sites

A most progressive 06z, and we would be looking down the zonal barrel for some time should this verify.

Have to agree Ian,the 06z really ramps up the jet.Absolutely zero chance of anything approaching Northern blocking if that run verifies.

The trouble is,i see little or no positives in any of the output this morning.

 

On a positive note i'd rather get these grim synoptics out of the way now than say mid January!

  • Like 2
Link to post
Share on other sites

Like it or not there is no denying the excellent inter run consistancy of GFS, even at T+240hrs....with Barty still very much in place.

 

Posted Image

 

This is a pretty good indication of what was said earlier this week regarding weather from the S or W being much more likely (but of course by no means guaranteed) to verify post T+144hrs and anything from the N or E in that timeframe.

 

Time will tell of course, but even now I suspect there is a pretty good chance that this 'general pattern' will be in place come Dec 1st.

So your happy to post anything past 144 (240 in this case) and say YES to that pattern because its not showing cold? If the GFS was showing cold in that timeframe time after time you would just say its FI (infact it is but just not quite our island). When this weeks colder pattern was hinting in FI you kept saying it wouldn't happen and here we are.

Edited by MPG
  • Like 9
Link to post
Share on other sites

Have to agree Ian,the 06z really ramps up the jet.Absolutely zero chance of anything approaching Northern blocking if that run verifies.

The trouble is,i see little or no positives in any of the output this morning.

 

On a positive note i'd rather get these grim synoptics out of the way now than say mid January!

Indeed HD...what will probably happen now across the next few days is the HP window will slowly but surely close, with what now looks like a 10 day quiet, settled spell eventually reducing to around a week.

Link to post
Share on other sites

So your happy to post anything past 144 (240 in this case) and say YES to that pattern because its not showing cold? If the GFS was showing cold in that timeframe time after time you would just say its FI (infact it is but just not quite our island). When this weeks colder pattern was hinting in FI you kept saying it wouldn't happen and here we are.

Unfortunately it is the most likely outcome, backed up by both it's own ensembles and the ECM ensembles. The ECM op shows a more amplified pattern, but then it's always showing a more amplified pattern by day 10. It's burnt us over the past couple of weeks and to be honest it was doing the same thing throughout the summer as well. Hope we do get more amplification as this pattern isn't exactly awe inspiring.

Edited by Captain shortwave
  • Like 1
Link to post
Share on other sites
Guest
This topic is now closed to further replies.
×
×
  • Create New...