Model Output Discussion 18th Nov.2013-12z onwards.

[Captain Shortwave]

What would you give for this mlb in july   seems endless!!!!

We had one in July, can't be too greedy now

[Summer Sun]

Once the high builds in a few days all signals show it hanging around for a while out to t216 and its not shifting from the UK

 

 

t264 it remains in place, less cold 850's approaching from the west for a short time

 

 

Frost and freezing fog becoming an increasing risk, temps remaining below average

 

Currently this high could last a good 7 to 10 days maybe longer keeping our weather very quiet other than some stubborn fog

Edited November 20, 2013 by Summer Sun

[swfc]

We had one in July, can't be too greedy now

Indeed,fi but that 264 hr chart is one of the worst ive seen !!!

[Tamara]

I had hoped with the new servers that this would be a thing of the past?

 

 

Looks like some weak height anomalies appearing in the mid-atlantic from day 10

onwards which would take us into a cool unsettled pattern for the start of Winter.

 

ECM240..EDH101-240.gif  naefs360..naefsnh-0-0-360.png

Yes, I've had this in mind over the last day or two. A rinse and repeat is possible with High pressure leading to a westerly spell and then just perhaps renewed amplification in the atlantic. With the upper vortex as strong as it is though, I am not sure that we are likely to fare any better than what we currently see in any repeat scenario, should that occur However that would be better than any tradional mild and zonal pattern and there is no evidence for that at the moment. Before any of those possibilities, for the time being it looks like High pressure will take over - its been a while since that happened to any particular extent

[Summer Sun]

First signs of this high breaking up are at t300 (December 3rd)

 

 

Northerly

 

 

Its all down to the high now and where it goes

 

EDIT

 

Back over the UK is where it goes though it remains cold

 

 

GFS ends settled though a northerly could arrive again if we went on a few more runs

 

 

GFS 06z at t384 to show the difference

 

Edited November 20, 2013 by Summer Sun

[radiohead]

Another interesting T384 from the GFS...

 

[stodge]

In deepest FI, a small LP draifts up from Iberia - Spanish Plume anyone ?

 

Thunderstorms, where's the bbq ??

[Matty M]

Not a really bad UKM 96hrs

 

Still potential to feed some cold air into the east of England i feel:

 

[Ali1977]

FI looks good with the high heading North, however it's FI and will no doubt change "a lot"

[Panayiotis]

4th run to show high building in the Atlantic and ridging to Greenland! A trend or just coincidence? 

NH view also shows the PV disorganised

Edited November 20, 2013 by Panayiotis

[Matty M]

I think perhaps we are looking way too far ahead.

 

Lets keep an eye on things nearer 96/120hrs for the moment, still some crucial changes could occur which could feed in an easterly to some parts of the UK.

Edited November 20, 2013 by Matty M

[Summer Sun]

Overall this afternoon we have 7 to 10 days of settled and frosty weather and potentially some stubborn freezing fog from Friday before we get to any more potential snowy spells

 

All over to ECM now to see what that brings

 

UKMO has high pressure dominating

 

 

UKMO remains unavailable from t6 to t36 for the 6th day running

Edited November 20, 2013 by Summer Sun

[swfc]

I think perhaps we are looking way too far ahead.

 

Lets keep an eye on things nearer 96/120hrs for the moment, still some crucial changes could occur.

yes id agree.better ridging on gfs and ukmo within that period!!!

[Matty M]

Not a very pretty UKM 144hrs !
 

[snowangel32]

so a few hints from the gfs in fi of a trend emerging lets hope it continues to show up and it might be in fi but it has to start somewhere, personally if i would of had to pick i would prefer a cold spell in december than november, more cold hopefully to tap into, I expect more changes though.

Edited November 20, 2013 by snowangel32

[Matty M]

The short-wave southwest of Iceland has been delayed and reduced in strength around 96hrs compared to yesterday's runs but it still runs over the high forcing the high pressure south.

[Captain Shortwave]

4th run to show high building in the Atlantic and ridging to Greenland! A trend or just coincidence? 

NH view also shows the PV disorganised

hmm perhaps. I think I will take a few days break I think, I hope it will still be there (of course down below T300 by then  )

[gottolovethisweather]

Not a very pretty UKM 144hrs !

 

 

Yes but the most realistic solution I'm afraid as it's also backed up by the GFS. The upside is that today's low plunges into the med (not good for them given recent events), that then dissipates and allows for a reload from the North, at least according to the GFS it does. Let's get a colder near continent and then see what happens to the High over the UK by this time next week, i.e. at the start of FI.

Edited November 20, 2013 by gottolovethisweather

[bluearmy]

crazy user numbers on meteociel - 7000+.  no doubt all the europeans looking for their cold being brought south by our block. the 12z gfs low res stretches the upper strat vortex a tad and like the 06z reamplifies in two weeks.

 

the UKMO might look tedious this side of the pole but t'other is anything but and keep your eyes on the possibility of a deep trough being ejected of the siberian vortex in about a weeks time that may well dig down around kamchatka. that could well throw some seious WAA towards the pole and is likely the dynamic for the amplified ending we've seen on the past two gfs ops.

Edited November 20, 2013 by bluearmy

[Frosty.]

wow what a run from the Gfs 12z op, incredibly anticyclonic with lots of frost and probably a lot of freezing fog, cold and crisp for the next 2 weeks.

[PolarWarsaw]

I think I'd happily take a breakdown from the west so we can reset a couple of weeks down the line at this point. I like cold, but snow - not dry weather, frost and endless days of repetitive conditions. I fear if we get stuck in 2 weeks of anti-cyclonic that by the time the pattern does breakdown we may then have to suffer a couple of weeks of zonality before we can reset and look for something cooler - let's hope not - that's 3-4 weeks out of the window (not saying that's what will happen before I get cries of - writing 1 month off). 

 

Let's get this high pressure block removed and ASAP, even if we require a week of rain that's fine by me - we can look potentially towards a seasonal festive period.

Edited November 20, 2013 by PolarWarsaw

[MR EXTREMES]

I cant keep up with these models more  flip flops than club 18 in Cyprus.......

 

but im keeping my feet firmly on the ground as my post this morning in regards to a ec32 dayer from the strat thread was deleted!

and to be honest there have been four or five word posts being allowed which I was a little bemused by but hey ho.

 

there is certainly some interest in the extended runs from the models as suggested!

the pv is showing signs of a wobble and blocking holding firm over the uk,

 

 if anything over the last few days there seems to be a trend pointing towards a plume of higher pressure pushing south to north or sw to ne so the models are toying with the idea of trying to block Greenland,

which I like to drop that idea straight away!,

or a scandi ridge perhaps leading to and easterly perhaps a north easterly of coarse there is a more realistic look of just block holding over uk extending into the alantic and nothing showing in regards to above average.

 

there was a lot of talk about the ecm and its ramps from lastweek only to fail!.

 

but can it nail a more reasonable progression later to something a little more wintry although with caution as I look at these charts as long as theres no deep low pressure bang over us all in all looking ok for fresh dry feeling to things,

if not cloudy in places.

 

perhaps the wave 2 breaking episode will help to perhaps push things into a more slightly favourable option for us in the uk.

 

im not over excited but interested to see where this is all going to end up,

going into December!

 

perhaps I could even take back my winter over comments last night or should I say no winter this side of Christmas.

[Frosty.]

Well the way I see it, if we can't have snow let's have lots of frost instead, that looks guaranteed with cross model agreement on an anticyclonic and rather cold outlook.

[MR EXTREMES]

the jma looks interesting aswell navgem showing interest they really are showing some surface cold and the worst model tonight goes to the gem.

 

nearly all models though show cold sliding nicely into Europe then flowing east some very close to our shores interesting

Edited November 20, 2013 by model rollercoaster

[John Cox]

The 12z GFS run does not let the atlantic get aboard at all and builds the mid Atlantic high nicely in FI.

 

I know its FI but it may well be the start of a trend. Fingers crossed