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Model Output Discussion 18th Nov.2013-12z onwards.


phil nw.

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Posted
  • Location: Lytchett Matravers - 301 ft ASL
  • Weather Preferences: Snowy Winters, Torrential Storm Summers
  • Location: Lytchett Matravers - 301 ft ASL

B-E-A-U-T-IF-U-L

 

Posted Image

emphasis on the IF

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Posted
  • Location: Ski Amade / Pongau Region. Somtimes Skipton UK
  • Weather Preferences: Northeasterly Blizzard and sub zero temperatures.
  • Location: Ski Amade / Pongau Region. Somtimes Skipton UK

Whilst the GFS and ECM have provided contrasting model predictions for the past few days, the UKMO  has gone consistently along the lines of showing high pressure building over the UK and low pressure circulation maintained over the Northern Med regions. This situation is going to last up to 144 hours. So not all is lost for the UK cold lovers as most of the UK is going to be cold, especially the SE over the weekend. Beyond that period, still a lot can change. As long as the White Sea upper low circulation continues to feed Arctic air into Eastern and Southern Europe the longer term sinking of the high pressure zone over Britain will be slow and the tap of cold air never too far away. So do not give in cold lovers, not all is lost and just enjoy the next 6 days of cold weather, even if not snowy. 

 C

Hi,

 The GFS 06h is just one run, but shows how quickly the longer term can change. Nobody knows much past 144 hours , even with the most powerful computers. However, the model predictions up to 144 hours have come a long way since my time.

C

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Posted
  • Location: Oyne Aberdeenshire 120m asl
  • Weather Preferences: SNAW
  • Location: Oyne Aberdeenshire 120m asl

Posted Image

The new trend begins at T384!

So the count down to t120 from this chart starts today....will it wont it....more fun and games to come...is a stonking chart tho how many of us would sell their Nan for a chart like this to be t48??

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Posted
  • Location: Croydon. South London. 161 ft asl
  • Weather Preferences: Thunderstorms, snow, warm sunny days.
  • Location: Croydon. South London. 161 ft asl

Yes, certainly the US guys are seeing a very flat jet across their part of the World for December, so as the models indicate by day 9, we should see those low pressure anomalies begin to disappear over S Europe as the High sinks and we enter the next phase of zonality – the last one lasted exactly a month.

 

Zonal my I have a problem!..

 

  Posted Image

 

LOL.. Swear filters again.

Edited by Vivian
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Posted
  • Location: West Sussex
  • Weather Preferences: Extreme cold & snow
  • Location: West Sussex

Wonderful as this chart is, try getting Steve Murr excited over a far distant FI chart from the GFS 06z of all runs - LOL !

 

Posted Image

 

Posted Image

Edited by Purga
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Posted
  • Location: Castle Black, the Wall, the North
  • Weather Preferences: Spanish Plumes, Blizzards, Severe Frosts :-)
  • Location: Castle Black, the Wall, the North

The main part of the Gfs 06z is unsettled with mild air alternating with colder polar maritime, the high pushes away eastwards by next friday allowing the atlantic juggernaut to steam across the uk with stronger winds and rain interspersed by brighter, showery spells and then that incredible finish, I would have loved to see the next few frames.

post-4783-0-56074400-1384945266_thumb.pn

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post-4783-0-33402500-1384945325_thumb.pn

post-4783-0-50041100-1384945346_thumb.pn

post-4783-0-78053400-1384945380_thumb.pn

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Posted
  • Location: Clayton-Le-Woods, Chorley 59m asl.
  • Weather Preferences: very cold frosty days, blizzards, very hot weather, floods, storms
  • Location: Clayton-Le-Woods, Chorley 59m asl.

By looking at greenland, it seems to me that a greenland high is developing. That is good news for us coldies. I hope the runs will trend colder from now on. Posted Image 

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Posted
  • Location: Castle Black, the Wall, the North
  • Weather Preferences: Spanish Plumes, Blizzards, Severe Frosts :-)
  • Location: Castle Black, the Wall, the North

By looking at greenland, it seems to me that a greenland high is developing. That is good news for us coldies. I hope the runs will trend colder from now on. Posted Image

Agreed, i'm actually glad we are probably not going to end up with some middle ground wasteland that the ecm was showing yesterday, it now looks like a quiet period but then trending unsettled by the end of next week with colder shots from the northwest to look forward to, it would have been much worse to be stuck in between the cold to the east and mild to the west in limbo.

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Posted
  • Location: leicester
  • Location: leicester

Look at those cold uppers over Eastern Europe on the 6z! And compared to the previous run below

Posted Image

Posted Image

well well that is a massive difference.are we about to see something stir up again.
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Posted
  • Location: Epsom, Surrey, 100 Meters above sea level
  • Weather Preferences: Anything Extreme
  • Location: Epsom, Surrey, 100 Meters above sea level

Zonal my I have a problem!..

 

  Posted Image

 

LOL.. Swear filters again.

 

 

This chart is just there to bait us....it's a bit like ''Bulls Eye'' ...''Here's what you could have wone'' ...it'll be gone on the next run so best we savour it now for prosperity

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Posted
  • Location: Castle Black, the Wall, the North
  • Weather Preferences: Spanish Plumes, Blizzards, Severe Frosts :-)
  • Location: Castle Black, the Wall, the North

The GEFS 06z mean shows anticyclonic dominance next week with slight frosts so lots of ice scraping each morning I suspect, and thick fog patches which will be stubborn to clear from some areas and where that happens, max temps not much above freezing. Even by the end of next week the mean shows the southern half of the uk under high pressure but unsettled and windier atlantic weather feeding around the top of the slowly sinking anticyclone, so the mean is less keen to lose the heights to the south/se than the op which shows a quicker erosion and flip to unsettled zonality.

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post-4783-0-21321500-1384947589_thumb.pn

Edited by Frosty.
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Posted
  • Location: Lytchett Matravers - 301 ft ASL
  • Weather Preferences: Snowy Winters, Torrential Storm Summers
  • Location: Lytchett Matravers - 301 ft ASL

I think it just goes to show that you can't write off the next 10 days, never mind December/Winter.

 

Yes it is Fl, but the trend has to start somewhere!

 

Posted Image

Edited by karlos1983
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Posted
  • Location: Wellseborne, Warwickshire
  • Weather Preferences: Southerly tracking low pressure in winter. Hot and thundery in the summer
  • Location: Wellseborne, Warwickshire

Where it begins is yet again with an omega block setting up over the pacific . We can see the high forces its way northwards . It buckles the flow and causes big amplification down stream. Along with WAA heading northward into high latitudes which helps dismantle the vortex which promotes the high on our side of the atlantic originally only allowed to form because of the pacific ridge ,then migrating northwards into greenland and behond. . . It will most likely be gone on the 12z but the repeated pacific ridge is something that's a likely feature in the next 4 weeks in my opinion so the knock on effect round the globe shown on the 06z is a very liplausable outlook.post-9095-0-35969300-1384947395_thumb.pn

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Posted
  • Location: Reigate Hill
  • Weather Preferences: Anything
  • Location: Reigate Hill

The ECM members for the 0z for London:

 

post-14819-0-92270200-1384947579_thumb.g

 

Lots of spread after D7 so not convinced yet that the westerly flow is nailed. A few more days will help.

 

GEFS 06z mean tending towards a SW flow after T240: post-14819-0-78042800-1384947753_thumb.p

 

Interesting that the CFS composite of the last 14, 7 and 3 days runs for December have HLB, mainly over Scandi and trending there.

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Posted
  • Location: Leeds/Bradford border, 185 metres above sea level, around 600 feet
  • Location: Leeds/Bradford border, 185 metres above sea level, around 600 feet

Not sure where all the depression is coming from, right through to day 6 all models have a high protecting the UK from any fronts and surface cold..

 

Posted Image

 

Hardly a picture of raging zonality!

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Posted
  • Location: Ireland
  • Location: Ireland

The ECM members for the 0z for London:

 

Posted Imageensemble-tt6-london.gif

 

Lots of spread after D7 so not convinced yet that the westerly flow is nailed. A few more days will help.

 

ECM op was certainly on the milder side in the near term anyway. A considerable cluster of cooler members in the medium term can't be ignored. The spread later on then shows the degree of uncertainty for the start of Decemeber. Some very mild looking members, but I also see some ice days!

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Posted
  • Location: Castle Black, the Wall, the North
  • Weather Preferences: Spanish Plumes, Blizzards, Severe Frosts :-)
  • Location: Castle Black, the Wall, the North

ECM op was certainly on the milder side in the near term anyway. A considerable cluster of cooler members in the medium term can't be ignored. The spread later on then shows the degree of uncertainty for the start of Decemeber. Some very mild looking members, but I also see some ice days!

The Ecm 00z ensemble mean is very bullish about a return to zonal weather by the end of next week onwards.

post-4783-0-85669600-1384950277_thumb.gi

Edited by Frosty.
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Posted
  • Location: st albans
  • Location: st albans

The Ecm 00z ensemble mean is very bullish about a return to zonal weather by the end of next week onwards.

 

you can see from the spread of temps and clustering of solutions for london that nothing is set in stone yet. i was expecting to see those cold clusters drop out by this morning.

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Posted
  • Location: Reigate Hill
  • Weather Preferences: Anything
  • Location: Reigate Hill

The Ecm 00z ensemble mean is very bullish about a return to zonal weather by the end of next week onwards.

 

 

A split set of members would default the pattern to neutral in this case:

 

Mean anomaly at T240: post-14819-0-33592400-1384950387_thumb.g

 

Similar with the 850s: post-14819-0-31221200-1384950432_thumb.g

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Posted
  • Location: Darlington
  • Weather Preferences: Warm dry summers
  • Location: Darlington

The Ecm 00z ensemble mean is very bullish about a return to zonal weather by the end of next week onwards.

 

GFS 06z ensemble going a similar route

 

Posted Image

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Posted
  • Location: ILCHESTER
  • Location: ILCHESTER

you can see from the spread of temps and clustering of solutions for london that nothing is set in stone yet. i was expecting to see those cold clusters drop out by this morning.

One thing is set in stone ba and that is the hunt for cold is again underway....and as per normal it's in earnest.  Not sure we can completely discount the latest ECM mean despite the fact it's showing pretty zonal, but no denying the 'colder' clusters are still present and therefore also cannot be completely discounted...for now.

Edited by shedhead
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Posted
  • Location: Ireland
  • Location: Ireland

The Ecm 00z ensemble mean is very bullish about a return to zonal weather by the end of next week onwards.

 

If you look at the London ENS though the ECM op was milder than all 50 ensemble members, bar 1, on the 29th. I think it would only take a few members showing deep lows over us to cancel out the ones showing moderate high pressure on the mean chart.

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Posted
  • Location: Carryduff, County Down 420ft ASL
  • Location: Carryduff, County Down 420ft ASL

This is my post from the Strat thread which I typed before looking at the GFS 6z.

---

I'm no expert Catacol but I would have thought a poleward Rockies Mountain Torque event coupled with the presence of the Alutian High would serve to exert some extra pressure on the vortex in that local, displacing it to the other side of the pole.

Whilst the vortex is strong it is unlikely we will see any HLB, however we might see a bit more fluctuations in the jet stream, certainly not flat zonal and perhaps the chance of a northerly as the vortex gets pushed towards Siberia due to the MT (if it occurs) and Aleutian High.

One thing is clear in my view, the vortex strength was underplayed by the ECM resulting in the failed HLB. Remember when Steve was saying it was worth noting that the HLB was happening despite the strong vortex? It turns out of course that the HLB never occurred.

----

Whilst the 6z in my view is to extreme, the general synoptics may not be far of the mark. I would think a toppler would however be more likely.

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Posted
  • Location: Lincolnshire - 15m asl
  • Weather Preferences: Frost and snow. A quiet autumn day is also good.
  • Location: Lincolnshire - 15m asl

Deleted. Somehow this post got trashed!

Edited by Catacol_Highlander
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