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Model Output Discussion 18th Nov.2013-12z onwards.


phil nw.

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Posted
  • Location: St Albans, 95m asl
  • Location: St Albans, 95m asl

The change of GM feed seems due to a move from GRIB 1 to GRIB 2 datasets last week. It was circulated by UKMO. However I'm awaiting further info on this issue.

 

Thanks Ian as always :)

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Posted
  • Location: Darlington
  • Weather Preferences: Warm dry summers
  • Location: Darlington

UKMO fixed and high pressure is sat over the UK from Friday

 

Posted Image

Posted ImagePosted Image

 

A different route to ECM

Edited by Summer Sun
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Posted
  • Location: lowestoft
  • Location: lowestoft

The change of GM feed seems due to a move from GRIB 1 to GRIB 2 datasets last week. It was circulated by UKMO. However I'm awaiting further info on this issue.

 

if you scroll through the times on the left of the ukmo on metrociel it runs the 12z for 18/11/13 , is that not the one we are waiting for?????????????

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Posted
  • Location: Brighton, East Sussex
  • Location: Brighton, East Sussex

Expecting a backtrack from the ECM tonight, given the consistency of the GFS I'm inclined to go with it now a few more of the lesser models back it also.

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Posted
  • Location: Darlington
  • Weather Preferences: Warm dry summers
  • Location: Darlington

if you scroll through the times on the left of the ukmo on metrociel it runs the 12z for 18/11/13 , is that not the one we are waiting for?????????????

 

Yes 12z UKMO for tonight is now out http://www.meteociel.fr/modeles/ukmo2.php?ech=6&carte=1021

 

Returned data, it looks like there was just a bug in transmission.

Usual data are back, it looks like there was a wrong Earlier data transmission.

Edited by Summer Sun
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Posted
  • Location: Scottish Central Belt
  • Location: Scottish Central Belt

Something I found a bit interesting here. 

This is the model output for the GFS 8 days ago for Wednesday.

Posted Image

And this is it today
Posted Image


Now sure, it's not identical, but it does have the same features in the same places, all be it downgraded. Bear in mind that first chart was out in FI when I saved it a week back Sunday.

Fluke or actual prediction?
 

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Posted
  • Location: Castle Black, the Wall, the North
  • Weather Preferences: Spanish Plumes, Blizzards, Severe Frosts :-)
  • Location: Castle Black, the Wall, the North

big difference garbagebags, this wednesday is a mixed out less cold n'ly with heavy rain and gales, the other was undiluted /  colder with wintry  showers. 

post-4783-0-86882900-1384796431_thumb.pn

post-4783-0-70479700-1384796448_thumb.pn

post-4783-0-45419300-1384796465_thumb.pn

Edited by Frosty.
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Posted
  • Location: Ireland
  • Location: Ireland

ECM is a great model, but it doesn't win every "round", as we saw last winter. A "backtrack" looks likely, but the 12Z ECM could still present something different from both it's own previous run and the GFS. We don't have too long to wait now anyway.

 

Good to see that the UKMO problem seems to have been resolved.

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Posted
  • Location: Redhill, Surrey
  • Weather Preferences: Southerly tracking LPs, heavy snow. Also 25c and calm
  • Location: Redhill, Surrey

Now, let's see what ECM 12z brings.  I think the run last night was and is OTT and we won't see the jam come to fruition.  GFS has been keeping away from that only 'edging' towards it and thus IMO when only see edging then the other end ie ECM is 'too good' an outcome. Let's enjoy this cold feed for now, I didn't expect it so I for one am looking forward to it

 

BFTP

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Posted
  • Location: st albans
  • Location: st albans

Something I found a bit interesting here. This is the model output for the GFS 8 days ago for Wednesday.

And this is it todayNow sure, it's not identical, but it does have the same features in the same places, all be it downgraded. Bear in mind that first chart was out in FI when I saved it a week back Sunday.

Fluke or actual prediction? 

 

looks impressive but then it did bring the depression in w-e across southern ireland whereas the ecm run from the same timeframe brings it down more slowly from ne  of scotland.  still, if you can freeze the maps at a point in time and a model has a feature in the rght place then it isnt complete rubbish, especially at T240.

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Posted
  • Location: portsmouth uk
  • Weather Preferences: extremes
  • Location: portsmouth uk

garbagebags that's good post I will say something ive notice of the gfs look at the block over Russia then block in the alantic and even stronger pulse of higher pressure moving up from the azores, now where can them deep low pressures go surely they slide down through scandi area into Europe surely this can be a good thing if the gfs is right????????

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Posted
  • Location: Dunblane, 108m asl
  • Location: Dunblane, 108m asl

Something I found a bit interesting here. 

This is the model output for the GFS 8 days ago for Wednesday.

Posted Image

And this is it today

Posted Image

Now sure, it's not identical, but it does have the same features in the same places, all be it downgraded. Bear in mind that first chart was out in FI when I saved it a week back Sunday.

Fluke or actual prediction?

 

A classic example of how the shortwave changes things and in the majority of cases leads to downgrades. The long wave pattern is about right, looking at the height ridges and troughs, however with smallish low the flow to the UK now comes from mid Norway as opposed to somewhere deep in the Arctic. Sadly models cannot accuately predict SW's that far in advance hence why dream charts if FI are rarely as extreme as T0 approaches!

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Posted
  • Location: Cambridge
  • Location: Cambridge

Something I found a bit interesting here. 

This is the model output for the GFS 8 days ago for Wednesday.

Posted Image

And this is it today

Posted Image

Now sure, it's not identical, but it does have the same features in the same places, all be it downgraded. Bear in mind that first chart was out in FI when I saved it a week back Sunday.

Fluke or actual prediction?

 

I'm confused as ever... they look very very different in terms of the end weather result to my untrained eye??

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Posted
  • Location: warwick 74m. asl
  • Weather Preferences: WHITE GOLD
  • Location: warwick 74m. asl

This explains the diff between gfs and ecm well. weatherwebdotnet, its Simon Keeling. sorry cant post link.

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Posted
  • Location: Gillingham, Kent
  • Weather Preferences: Snow, Thunderstorms,
  • Location: Gillingham, Kent

T72 and already it seems the ECM isn't going to be backing down.

 

post-7073-0-01867100-1384798154_thumb.gi

 

Heights building Northwards behind the PV lobe to the East of Greenland rather than building into the PV Lobe like the GFS does sending energy in the Atlantic under the block. Encouraging early signs

Edited by Daniel Smith
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Posted
  • Location: Essex, Southend-On-Sea
  • Weather Preferences: Warm, bright summers and Cold, snowy winters
  • Location: Essex, Southend-On-Sea

ECM wants none of it

Posted Image

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Posted
  • Location: Lytchett Matravers - 301 ft ASL
  • Weather Preferences: Snowy Winters, Torrential Storm Summers
  • Location: Lytchett Matravers - 301 ft ASL

looking good at 96, hights into Greenland, lows going under

 

Posted Image

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Posted
  • Location: Burton-on-Trent (90m), Larnaka most Augusts
  • Location: Burton-on-Trent (90m), Larnaka most Augusts

ECM still going for the link up between the two highs. Shortwave in the Atlantic getting very close to Spain. Can't believe the differences at just 96 hours away. It's setting up to be a crazy couple of days of model watching. While UKMO ended up bad, it's still very close to joining the highs. It's just GFS that just completely goes against a link up between the two highs.

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Posted
  • Location: Manchester
  • Weather Preferences: Sunny and warm in the Summer, cold and snowy in the winter, simples!
  • Location: Manchester

Not a big difference between ECM and UKMO at 120h. I think this will be fairly close to the final outcome for day 5.

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