Model Output Discussion 18th Nov.2013-12z onwards.

[SE Blizzards]

I'm still buzzin in the after glow of the Ecm 12z op run. Can today be even better? This forum is the BEST.

Totally agree Frosty. A great day. Lets just hope for more of the same tomorrow.

 

This forum is the best, and also your posts are always a joy to read. Keep up the good work mate, you're a breath of fresh (or should that be arctic) air to this thread 

Edited November 30, 2013 by SE Blizzards

[weatherguy]

I'm still buzzin in the after glow of the Ecm 12z op run. Can today be even better? This forum is the BEST.

 

I love you Frosty, your enthusiasm is so infectious! 

 

Edit to include some analysis, so I don't incur the wrath of the mods...

 

GFS takes us a different route with a much deeper LP flattening the ridge, which eventually leads to the formation of a scandy high, bringing in a lovely easterly ended by an undercutting low which would bring heavy snow to many (my favourite - a battleground scenario!).  So different route, still cold...Will be interesting to see what tomorrow brings

 

Who doesn't love this sort of set up? 

 

Edited November 30, 2013 by weatherguy

[Dancerwithwings]

I love you Frosty, your enthusiasm is so infectious! 

 

Edit to include some analysis, so I don't incur the wrath of the mods...

 

GFS takes us a different route with a much deeper LP flattening the ridge, which eventually leads to the formation of a scandy high, bringing in a lovely easterly ended by an undercutting low which would bring heavy snow to many (my favourite - a battleground scenario!).  So different route, still cold...Will be interesting to see what tomorrow brings

 Thank goodness you Edited that when you did... I love you Frosty.... Blimey!... Remember we have to keep up this so called masochism up you know

Or its either you've had too much pop.... I love you "hic" lol

[Weathizard]

An excellent day for cold potential, particularly for the north. Knowing weather models though, we'll probably wake up in the morning to some rubbish output, I've noticed they have a rather bad habit of biting is all on the bottoms during the overnight runs so we all wake up with a bit of 'model hangover' after the pub run in the evening. Hope the trend continues in the morning mind just think we need to temper expectations a little.

[Bristawl Si]

SM - well let's see if he's 'ahead of the curve'. Somehow i think he might be.

Anyone that's prepared to sway from the norm is worth taking notice of imo.

[Gael_Force]

Over the last few GFS runs, FI has shown just about every regime in the DECIDER repertoire - something is afoot when the models are lurching round with solutions - let's hope the wheel stops at the jackpot!

 

EDIT. Nice little cluster of easterlies appearing for the coast of Holland at the end of the  ECM ensembles now.

 

Edited November 30, 2013 by Gael_Force

[Steve C]

After a brief northerly toppler which will bring some welcome cooler weather neaxt weekend, the default mild pattern of High pressure over Europe and Low pressure strongly centred over Greenland looks the form horse.

 

 

At least the far end of FI shows the jet displaced south and has a bit of promise.

The ENS show the brief cool down before a strongly mild and zonal type regime exerts its grip in the run up to mid month.

I'm glad you've reappeared I thought you were a WUM in the Spring, but your recent posts seem nicely balanced. Carry on.

[Panayiotis]

Over the last few GFS runs, FI has shown just about every regime in the DECIDER repertoire - something is afoot when the models are lurching round with solutions - let's hope the wheel stops at the jackpot!

 

EDIT. Nice little cluster of easterlies appearing for the coast of Holland at the end of the  ECM ensembles now.

 

Hi GF, where are you getting these charts from? Thanks.

Edited November 30, 2013 by Panayiotis

[Mucka]

GFS 00z completely different to previous runs again so I'm not going to analyse it, I'll just compare it with the UKMO at 144h

 

 

AS you can see GFS is incredibly flat while  UKMO is an improvement and brings in a deeper Northerly but it looks as though it would be fairly brief though if the low disrupted energy SE down the Easter side of the ridge we may get a snow event but we would better of with an ECM type run with a better ridge as a more amplified pattern would give us better chance of prolonging the cold.

 

GFS never really gets the cold air South at all with its shallow trough and what cold air there is, is leaving by the 7th Dec so pretty much a non event for depth of cold and longevity. Let's be thankful GFS has absolutely no clue at the moment and it is likely wrong. 

 

Edited November 30, 2013 by Mucka

[Great Plum]

Methinks that the 0Z ensembles are broken... The op run is practically an outlier from the start...

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/MT8_London_ens.png

???

[That ECM]

Methinks that the 0Z ensembles are broken... The op run is practically an outlier from the start... http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/MT8_London_ens.png???

Agreed. ECM att120 and looking good.

[lamppost watcher]

http://images.meteociel.fr/im/272/ECM0-144_zjy1.GIF

T144 850 temps Looking good

Edited November 30, 2013 by RoryHennessy

[Mucka]

Here it is guys, sweet ECM 1t 144 with the GFS next to ti for comparison, staggering difference.

 

 

 

and 168

 

Edited November 30, 2013 by Mucka

[Great Plum]

Yup,

ECM 144hr is looking great -5 line nearly at the south coast... It's going to be a cold wind!

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Recm1441.gif

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Recm1442.gif

[lamppost watcher]

Crazy difference Mucka...Please God let the ECM be correct

V cold uppers down to Birmingham area at t168

<img src='http://images.meteociel.fr/im/4712/ECM0-168_qkg5.GIF' border=0>

[TSNWK]

Nice 168 ECM amazing difference between and the GFS. On the ECM the high looks like it is difting towards the uk, although I'm wondering if the low heading of the eastern seaboard will go under

Edited November 30, 2013 by TSNWK

[cold snap]

ECM wants somehing epic here unlike GFS

192 could be extreme cold

Edited November 30, 2013 by cold snap

[Great Plum]

ECM 168...

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Recm1681.gif

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Recm1682.gif

Notice how it has picked up the 'kink' (shortwave?) in the flow again - mucho snow perhaps?

-10 air into the midlands -5 half way through France!

[Mucka]

Crazy difference Mucka...Please God let the ECM be correct

V cold uppers down to Birmingham area at t168

<img src='http://images.meteociel.fr/im/4712/ECM0-168_qkg5.GIF' border=0>

 

Yeah le's hope, it is probably much closer than GFS though given that it has been consistent and GFS is all over the place. I would of prfeered for it to have better support from UKMO  but hopefully that will happen this evening.

 

Edited November 30, 2013 by Mucka

[cold snap]

Some cracking uppers on the ECM

Something between GFS and ECM maybe I feel

[lamppost watcher]

At t216 the south holding on to the cold uppers

[TSNWK]

ECM 192 and 216 show the high toppling towards the uk, actually 216 looks like we would be drawing in a westerly. So in my view its a short sharp shock to kick of winter, far worse ways to start it

[That ECM]

Going to be very interesting to see how this pans out. When you think that this a week away which in many ways is no time, yet in weather terms , it is a huge amount of time. 28 more runs from the GFS between then an now. I am sure it will get one right!! Only joking all you GFS fans.

[Great Plum]

ECM 192...

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Recm1921.gif

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Recm1922.gif

-5 air clearing the south of France and nick sussex's house...

Looks like to me that the high May move over us but it will still be very cold!

Edited November 30, 2013 by Great Plum

[TSNWK]

ECM 240 could be worse, does anyone think its flirting with thr idea of setting up a scadi high, nice nose of high pressure coming in from the east?