Model Output Discussion 18th Nov.2013-12z onwards.

[East_England_Stormchaser91]

One of the best Northerly charts yet! 

If we can keep this trend going, and place the high further up more into Greenland, then it could be an early winter whiteout big time.

[Methuselah]

Well the shortwave at T166 over Iceland, now over East Anglia by T192

Band of heavy snow moving south across the UK

Got to be worth a BOOM!!!

Then again, should the models do their usual, we might enjoy optimal conditions for seeing whatever's left of Comet ISON?

[SMU]

http://www.meteociel.fr/modeles/ecmwf/runs/2013112912/ECF0-216.GIF?29-0

Day 4 still V cold.  - Although the shower train will be gone- Any snow cover would remain

 

Midwest low at 144 was a lot faster on the ECM than the UKMO- so still time to change.

 

Interesting to see any scandi push at 244 for heigher heights.

 

S

Edited November 29, 2013 by Steve Murr

[Don]

be wary though, coming up to first anniversary of 'that ECM' completely different setup I know, but about the same at 168 hours

 

 

That's exactly what I was just thinking!  Never forgiven the ECM for that but lets see if it can make up for it a year later lol!

Edited November 29, 2013 by Don

[Panayiotis]

At 216hrs with the high over/near us ie clear skies possible and light winds there could be lows of -10C in those places which saw the snowfall at 192hrs especially higher ground:

[BeastFromTheEast]

http://www.meteociel.fr/modeles/ecmwf/runs/2013112912/ECH1-192.GIF?29-0

 

HEAVY SNOW moving south :0

 

Day 3.

S

and grinding to a halt or petering out before it reaches East Anglia knowing my luck lol

[radiohead]

That snow bringing low could very, very easily vanish again on the 0Z, but the overall output from the ECM is very good, and as long as we get a setup like that then at least the potential for a polar low type of feature to develop will be there anyway.

[Summer Sun]

t240 sees the coldest air gone into eastern Europe, high pressure back in control with clear sky at night some sharp frosts would occur especially in any rural areas with snow cover, surface temps would remain cold given the cold air proceeding it

 

Edited November 29, 2013 by Summer Sun

[Barry12]

UKMO 144 should be very interesting tomorrow

[SMU]

http://www.meteociel.fr/modeles/ecmwf/runs/2013112912/ECH1-240.GIF?29-0

 

Whilst the UK gets some slightly warmer uppers the 'toppler' crew will need to be wary that this isn't toppling..

 

Best run of the winter thus far tonight from the ECM....

 

S

That snow bringing low could very, very easily vanish again on the 0Z, but the overall output from the ECM is very good, and as long as we get a setup like that then at least the potential for a polar low type of feature to develop will be there anyway.

 

Did you know that low is on the ECM @ 96 hours?

S

[Joe Levy]

That was a very good run of the ECM and more than I would expect at this time of year. As a child of the mid-late 90s and early 2000s, 3-4 days of cold would be mega long in my books if it were not for the last 4 or 5 years, so these charts are exactly what I am looking for this winter! Even in the last chart there is long term potential as high pressure ridges into Scandinavia

[R.P. McMurphy]

t240 sees the coldest air gone into eastern Europe, high pressure back in control with clear sky at night some sharp frosts would occur especially in any rural areas with snow cover

 

 

Yes, HP back in charge for a couple of days before moving on again...

Edited November 29, 2013 by Glenn W

[Captain Shortwave]

Well that's not too bad, not going anywhere near a return to zonality with a deep Atlantic trough, decent chance to at least make an attempt to build heights to the north east.

Great run overall.

Edited November 29, 2013 by Captain shortwave

[nick sussex]

Now that we've seen this northerly next step in operation cold extension is to plot a route to an easterly or ne from the northerly. A work of fiction or a possible reality?

 

IMO a reality because as you can see even the ECM 240hrs is digging energy south into the Atlantic, what goes down must come up, ooh Matron!!! More amplification upstream then theres every chance, if you follow the ECM from 192 you can see the fluid anti clockwise motion as the PV heads west, if you get enough energy heading  south into the Atlantic this will help kick the high further ne.

[Joe Levy]

Yes, HP back in charge for a couple of days before moving on again...

Clear skies and long nights, combined with cold surface air and snow fields in places means that frosts will be inevitable. Obviously clear skies are needed for this to happen

 

EDIT - Glenn for some reason it didn't quote your whole post but I hope you get what I was directing my remark at haha!

Edited November 29, 2013 by Joe Levy

[weatherguy]

Yes, HP back in charge for a couple of days before moving on again...

 

Excuse me if I'm wrong, more experienced posters may correct me, but it's mainly due to inversion I think - The cold air is more dense so sinks below the warmer upper air temperatures, leaving us cold at ground level.  This happens when very cold air is particularly entrenched

 

Edit - Oops, not sure what happened there!

Edited November 29, 2013 by weatherguy

[stewfox]

Can we get a new thread for the ECM this one is getting a bit big.

 

For the Newbies

 

28 hrs and 58 minutes away from the start of winter I don't think we will see a new thread yet, its currently Autumn and things are calm and quite on here at present.

 

1st December is the start of the 'winter proper' and then we get Aspirations/desperations/hopecasting/IBMY/

Cannon fodder/poor/epic/bin/FI wont happen/will happen/shortwave/depression/call it longwave/T384 charts/upgrades/downgrades/  and utter mayhem /sleepless nights/other half who doesn't understand types of model watching.It gets serious

 

By the 2nd December it starts all over again.

Edited November 29, 2013 by stewfox

[R.P. McMurphy]

Clear skies and long nights, combined with cold surface air and snow fields in places means that frosts will be inevitable. Obviously clear skies are needed for this to happen

 

EDIT - Glenn for some reason it didn't quote your whole post but I hope you get what I was directing my remark at haha!

Haha, Sorry Joe it was a tongue in cheek remark :-P

[Great Plum]

http://www.meteociel.fr/modeles/ecmwf/runs/2013112912/ECH1-240.GIF?29-0 Whilst the UK gets some slightly warmer uppers the 'toppler' crew will need to be wary that this isn't toppling.. Best run of the winter thus far tonight from the ECM.... S

Complete conjecture at this stage of course, but would you expect the high to take a trip to see Father Christmas in Lapland?

[Stuie]

@T240 all the polar vortex is being sucked towards Canada. Can`t remember the last time I saw that. Have no idea what that means in weather terms for us. thanks in advance for any input!

[SMU]

Complete conjecture at this stage of course, but would you expect the high to take a trip to see Father Christmas in Lapland?

 

THe angle & split flow is huge-

 

Atlantic trough digging towards the azores, high pressure ridging towards Svalbard & a couple of trigger shortwaves in central Europe to push the cold west-

I think the 264 chart would see as a MINIMUM the 0c line sitting in the SE corner with a continental drift, its after that we would need to see it develop.

 

A good ECM tonight- & plenty of excitement in the output- If I lived in Western Scotland or the NW I would expect to at least see some of the white stuff next week!S 

[Joe Levy]

THe angle & split flow is huge-

 

Atlantic trough digging towards the azores, high pressure ridging towards Svalbard & a couple of trigger shortwaves in central Europe to push the cold west-

I think the 264 chart would see as a MINIMUM the 0c line sitting in the SE corner with a continental drift, its after that we would need to see it develop.

 

A good ECM tonight- & plenty of excitement in the output- If I lived in Western Scotland or the NW I would expect to at least see some of the white stuff next week!S 

Anyone who has ever studied geography and tectonics will know that continental drift can mean something completely different if we need tectonics to get cold air then we have no chance...  

[Davey80]

I'm here in Budapest, Austria and Prague till next Sunday so hopefully I'll be guaranteed some snow somewhere either here or the UK.

[cooling climate]

ECM t240 chart full of eastern promise but at 10 day range it could be very different

come the morning. Very cold and snowy run from the ECM tonight and if these charts

verified most of the country would be affected by the wintry weather.

[Whether Idle]

Upgrades are required as we move into the reliable for a northerly of disruptive power