Model Output Discussion 18th Nov.2013-12z onwards.

[Snowman.]

A lovely cold northerly with -6 uppers covering the whole country and -8 uppers just touching the south coast. This is exactly the sort of chart us coldies have been hoping to see maintained in the charts

That trough spawning off the main low could cause some surprises if it slips east fast enough.

Edited November 29, 2013 by SN0WM4N

[R.P. McMurphy]

ECM is a stormer for cold lovers...If this is shown come Monday/Tuesday.... = Happy Days.

[cooling climate]

A big issue with todays GFS is that its modelling of the PNA pattern is not very good- especially on the 12z

 

http://www.emc.ncep.noaa.gov/gmb/STATS_vsdb/gfs4cyc/

 

The GFS wants to move the Midwest Low up & through any blocking VERY quickly, however as every run passes by so the PNA block ( & ridge that's thrown across the whole of Canada ) becomes Stronger-

 

The UKMO has a 1040MB high flat across Canada from the Aleutian High

http://www.meteociel.fr/ukmo/runs/2013112912/UN144-21.GIF?29-18

 

With this in place the Midwest low has nowhere to go except remain in situ -

GFS at the same time 144-

http://modeles.meteociel.fr/modeles/gfs/runs/2013112912/gfsnh-0-144.png?12

See there is no blocking- so the low ejects towards the pole.

 

 

The GFS is reknown for being

 

* To fast

* To eastward with its flow

* weak on polar blocking-

 

As a result of these tendancies- just like yesterdays 12z its game over straight away-

 

However with none of those tendancies the UKMO shows much better potential as long as we can get that sliding low angled NW/SE-

 

Interesting we are talking about this NOW - as the ECM was modelling this nearly 3 days ago-

http://www.meteociel.fr/modeles/ecmwf.php?jour=27&mois=11&annee=2013&heure=0&archive=1&mode=1&ech=72&map=1Anyone

 

Anyone questioning the ECM really need take this example yet again to see how the GFS has flopped around like a boxer on its last legs -

 

Lets see what tonights ECM brings....

 

S

As I mentioned last night its all to do with how amplified the pattern is. If we see the more

amplified pattern the ECM was showing 3 days ago then a cold spell is more likely where as

if the pattern is less amplified then a couple of day cold snap dependent on timing of phasing

of energy etc etc is the more likely.

From what I am seeling from the ECM 12z this evening the pattern is not looking to be as

amplified as was once modeled a couple of days back, this could of course change though.

[nick sussex]

A wonderfully festive ECM 168hrs output, now can we just get a bit more negative tilt to that troughing would be the icing on the cake. And to celebrate the ECM let me share one of my favourite Xmas tunes, the original is still the best IMO!

 

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=o2uvtl-1V70

[Tim Bland]

Would've to be in Scandinavia nxt weekend! North York mors will probably feel like Norway tho with a deep blanket of snow!!

[bluearmy]

if ecm is wrong, at least it consistently wrong. given the upstream uncertainty, its refreshing to see a model showing good continuity with features that the other models are struggling with.

[Frosty.]

Definately something wintry brewing towards the end of next week, models are upgrading the intensity and longevity..looking forward to darren bett saying it's going to be turning much colder later next week with snow...that will be priceless.

[weatherguy]

Bank the 168h ECM all the way!  Brutal cold coming from the north, quite rare in that regard.

[Joe Levy]

The wintry weather continues at 192 hours! Lovely!

[Captain Shortwave]

Well the shortwave at T166 over Iceland, now over East Anglia by T192

Band of heavy snow moving south across the UK

Got to be worth a BOOM!!!

Edited November 29, 2013 by Captain shortwave

[Mark Neal.]

192hrs. Very cold over the UK.  High edging in from the West however, a good cold outlook from ECM upto now! 

 

 

Heavy Snow heading SE?

Edited November 29, 2013 by Mark N

[radiohead]

Look at that low coming down between 168 and 192 on the ECM.

[Panayiotis]

Look at the extent of the cold over Europe at 192hrs! Small kink in the isobars over Central England? Snow?

[Snowman.]

 

 

That trough did move south...

 

Some serious snow if there was a weather front with it.

[Summer Sun]

The high is further west at t192 compared to the 00z, heavy snow for some quite possibly

 

Edited November 29, 2013 by Summer Sun

[Matty M]

Look at that low coming down between 168 and 192 on the ECM.

Yea that territory to the north is going to be a tinder box for polar low development.

[NorthernRab]

Bank the 168h ECM all the way!  Brutal cold coming from the north, quite rare in that regard.

 

It's actually very rare for a northerly to produce upper air temperatures like that at the beginning of December! 

 

 

[SMU]

http://www.meteociel.fr/modeles/ecmwf/runs/2013112912/ECH1-192.GIF?29-0

 

HEAVY SNOW moving south :0

 

Day 3.

S

Edited November 29, 2013 by Steve Murr

[R.P. McMurphy]

http://www.meteociel.fr/modeles/ecmwf/runs/2013112912/ECH1-168.GIF?29-0

Day 2 of the cold

 

Sees polar low over Iceland & the -8c line into the South

-12c into Scotland

 

http://www.meteociel.fr/modeles/ecmwf/runs/2013112912/ECM0-168.GIF?29-0   -14c into Shetland!!!!!!!!!!!!

 

http://www.meteociel.fr/modeles/ecmwf/runs/2013112912/ECF0-168.GIF?29-0

 

S

Fantasic charts Steve if it's cold you want & lots of snow. Distruption a sure thing in Scotland to say the least,

 

Would buy into any Polar Lows at this stage, we know they are usually anything from 0-24 hours in predicting.

[bluearmy]

can we call that a shortwave JH ?

[I remember Atlantic 252]

be wary though, coming up to first anniversary of 'that ECM' completely different setup I know, but about the same at 168 hours

[SMU]

can we call that a shortwave JH ?

 

No closed circulation - so YES.

[Stuie]

I can`t help thinking about the meltdown in here last December with "That chart" via the ECM. It won`t be far off again if an easterly can develop.

[Summer Sun]

t216 sees the high starting to shift east cutting off any cold from the north less cold air just approaching Ireland

 

Edited November 29, 2013 by Summer Sun

[Frosty.]

No closed circulation - so YES.

lets save some of these ecm charts tonight and see how close it gets to the outcome shown, will be a good test.