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Model Output Discussion 18th Nov.2013-12z onwards.


phil nw.

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Posted
  • Location: ILCHESTER
  • Location: ILCHESTER

Is there a lack of interest? Posted Image  Posted Image I'm still popping in on a daily basis, sometimes too many times for my own sanity Posted Image , but I see no reason for those folk whom wish to chase down the FI charts, to not continue to do so.  Yes, this working week is much a case of "Play it again, Sam" but there is a change a coming and that's what folk will be watching. I suggest this change in weather type, wherever it comes from might not occur until the 3rd December.

 

see my regional based post from yesterday.

 

So definitely a case of, patience grasshopper. Whatever, the EPIC charts may well not be delivering until we head deeper in Winter proper.

Neither do I GTLTW, but equally I see no reason why people can't post what the charts are actually showing too....and if that is not cold then so be it.  After all, that is supposed to be what the MDT is forPosted Image

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Posted
  • Location: ILCHESTER
  • Location: ILCHESTER

i'm really confused on 1hand frosty banging his drum about a cold blast at the start of winter and yet others r talking about zonality. It's confusing for some of who cant read charts properly also for new comers too.

Also worth reading Gibbys summery (kindly posted by SS) on a daily basis, it's normally well grounded and lacks the kind of emotion often displayed in here.

Edited by shedhead
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Posted
  • Location: Near Keele, North Staffs
  • Location: Near Keele, North Staffs

The lack of interest in here speaks volumns for the overnight outputs and the lack of cold prospects in general.  ECM is a real shocker, showing a slow, inexorable sinking of the high and eventual development of 'Bartlett like' pattern, whilst GFS is already steering the weekend 'plunge' well east of us and then rebuilding pressure across the south in particular. So once again this morning a switch to colder weather seems a long way off, with even the latest 'cold zonality' call for early Dec already looking on rather shaky ground.  

Yes, still at the stage where more runs are needed but it wouldn’t surprise to see a change in the METO update to average to above average certainly in Southern areas for early December.

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Posted
  • Location: Newbury, Berkshire. 107m ASL.
  • Weather Preferences: Summer:sunny, some Thunder,Winter:cold & snowy spells,Other:transitional
  • Location: Newbury, Berkshire. 107m ASL.

Neither do I GTLTW, but equally I see no reason why people can't post what the charts are actually showing too....and if that is not cold then so be it.  After all, that is supposed to be what the MDT is forPosted Image

 

Did you not misinterpret what I just stated. Posted Image Anyway, I have no more to add and I'll let the others continue to report their own findings and see if the anticipated changes in output come about sooner than I suggest. As I speak the GFS 6z must be rolling, anything new to report guys n gals. Posted Image

Edited by gottolovethisweather
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Posted
  • Location: ILCHESTER
  • Location: ILCHESTER

Yes, still at the stage where more runs are needed but it wouldn’t surprise to see a change in the METO update to average to above average certainly in Southern areas for early December.

Once this week of anticyclonic gloom is out of the way Ian I think most of us won't be too disappointed to see the gradual onset of zonality....at least there will be some weather around.  The only real question for me remains what type of zonality will we see as we move into Dec, will it be cold dominated, mild dominated or just average?  At this stage I think your call for average to above average in the south is probably where we'll end up, but central areas should be close to average and maybe the far north even slightly below.  So to answer my own question probably no clear domination of either cold or mild zonality, just pretty average for most of us, at least geographically if not demographically.

Edited by shedhead
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Posted
  • Location: Epsom, Surrey, 100 Meters above sea level
  • Weather Preferences: Anything Extreme
  • Location: Epsom, Surrey, 100 Meters above sea level

this coming weekend looks very similar to what we've recently had, with Low pressuer sliding down from the North, just to the East of the UK and enough to push the High pressure back out to our West and we end up in the same situation were in now with High pressure to the South West slowly filling out ..and from there who knows.....probably going to repeat the process all over again for a 3rd time.

 

I think it's going to be a long winter.

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Posted
  • Location: Essex, Southend-On-Sea
  • Weather Preferences: Warm, bright summers and Cold, snowy winters
  • Location: Essex, Southend-On-Sea

Last three runs (Yesterdays 12z CFS wasn't loading for some reason) have shown below average temps for the UK in December.

 

http://modeles.meteociel.fr/modeles/cfs/run/monthly/archives/2013112318/cfs-1-12-2013.png?18

http://modeles.meteociel.fr/modeles/cfs/run/monthly/archives/2013112400/cfs-1-12-2013.png?00

http://modeles.meteociel.fr/modeles/cfs/run/monthly/runs/2013112406/cfs-1-12-2013.png?06

 

 

However there is no consistency on the pressure anoms so its more of a case of guessing the pattern rather than the temperature.

 

But the latest CFS run is craziest run in a long time.

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Posted
  • Location: Cork, Ireland.
  • Weather Preferences: Storms frost snow heatwaves
  • Location: Cork, Ireland.

this coming weekend looks very similar to what we've recently had, with Low pressuer sliding down from the North, just to the East of the UK and enough to push the High pressure back out to our West and we end up in the same situation were in now with High pressure to the South West slowly filling out ..and from there who knows.....probably going to repeat the process all over again for a 3rd time.

 

I think it's going to be a long winter.

For a third time as in the high moving back in over us yet again?

I suspect that's what you mean and so leading to the winter of our discontent. Posted Image

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Posted
  • Location: Essex, Southend-On-Sea
  • Weather Preferences: Warm, bright summers and Cold, snowy winters
  • Location: Essex, Southend-On-Sea

Well then..

 

Posted Image

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Posted
  • Location: North East Cotswolds, 232m, 761feet ASL
  • Location: North East Cotswolds, 232m, 761feet ASL

Big changes at 240 ish with the low positioning, much deeper and should lead to very cold air on its back edge

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Posted
  • Location: Essex, Southend-On-Sea
  • Weather Preferences: Warm, bright summers and Cold, snowy winters
  • Location: Essex, Southend-On-Sea

7 Days into December and this is the state of the vortex.

 

Posted Image

 

2 Years ago.

 

Posted Image

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Posted
  • Location: Essex, Southend-On-Sea
  • Weather Preferences: Warm, bright summers and Cold, snowy winters
  • Location: Essex, Southend-On-Sea

Posted Image

 

Posted Image

Low res but still insane.

Well at least the warming is back over USA

 

Posted Image

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Posted
  • Location: Lincolnshire - 15m asl
  • Weather Preferences: Frost and snow. A quiet autumn day is also good.
  • Location: Lincolnshire - 15m asl

The lack of interest in here speaks volumns for the overnight outputs and the lack of cold prospects in general.  ECM is a real shocker, showing a slow, inexorable sinking of the high and eventual development of 'Bartlett like' pattern, whilst GFS is already steering the weekend 'plunge' well east of us and then rebuilding pressure across the south in particular. So once again this morning a switch to colder weather seems a long way off, with even the latest 'cold zonality' call for early Dec already looking on rather shaky ground.  

 

I dont think it will be long before long range ensembles pick up more meridionality in the pattern, probably with a mid atlantic ridge once again. Berlin data this mornning shows wave 2 activity picking up again and increasing at the 240 hour mark, and wave 1 is also building slowly. The vortex is so tight and cold and well formed now that such attacks are like chucking pebbles in a river, hoping to change its course... but pressure on the vortex will be the result and this transmits to increased wave amplitude at tropospheric level.

 

Not sure that the 06GFS is the best model run to use, but it is the most recent at the mo. I'm pretty certain that we wont have a highland blizzard like the one shown in this chart for a few days into December

 

Posted Image

 

but I think the overall gist is right. The slight warming in the strat is forecast to be mainly over asia thus helping push the vortex back across to the greenland sector, but ongoing wave amplification will help push some of that energy south resulting in arctic air getting into the mix. More snow for Scotland... cold rain for the rest of us. :-(

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Posted
  • Location: Near King's Lynn 13.68m ASL
  • Weather Preferences: Hoar Frost, Snow, Misty Autumn mornings
  • Location: Near King's Lynn 13.68m ASL

The Pacific/Aleutian ridge is playing havoc with the vortex run to run, so until that gets sorted in the modelling it's hard to tell what the downstream effects here will be. A procession of slowly sinking mid-Atlantic ridges does seem to be the pattern we are stuck in, but I suppose it's better than a conveyor belt of depressions.

Edited by Yarmy
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Posted
  • Location: Weston Super Mare , North Somerset
  • Location: Weston Super Mare , North Somerset

Just to add I Gibby's summery really helps me , as with work I don't get very much time at this time of year to view all the output. Gibby explains what's showing in each model without displaying any bias .

 

Regarding current output , I would say High in charge in the South for at least the next 7 days , I feel the Northerly shown on some models for the end of the week will probably end up to far East , and then as the P/V sorts it self out a little , then a break down to more unsettled , but with a flow probably more NW rather than SW . 

C

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Posted
  • Location: portsmouth uk
  • Weather Preferences: extremes
  • Location: portsmouth uk

I agree shed head no way over yet its nearly winter and a pattern change just in time as for gibbys posts I enjoy them and the lack of emotional comment can also be said the professional met office outlooks and this normally means that there doing there job in a professional manner with no bias towards any type of weather as if they did then the likely hood would be that the real ideas that the models are showing become one sided.

 

and can at times mean a repeat of the drama of the recent failed cold spell.

 

as it stands there is a pattern change ahead in that a more west nw low will dominate for awhile how long it lasts is anyones guess I think the remaining vortex and pattern shift in the states plus more wave activity is needed before a true trend for cold can evolve, but at this moment in time im not seeing a great deal happening other than a northwest flow swinging between west flow.

 

what is also clear to see the model are starting to point towards heights sinking into Europe but not in a favourable area more so for anyone living in the east se or southern areas of the uk with a more average feel but the northwest could have something of a more wintry flavour as uppers are always going to be chiller up there.

 

the mjo is still a weak signal and wave breaking has some work to still do but over all above average I don't see at all and its a case of wait until wed we will have a slightly clearer picture I expect.

what is good news there is a lot of cold going into Europe now and maybe this will help with feedback futher on.

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Posted
  • Location: ILCHESTER
  • Location: ILCHESTER

Are you basing the end of ridge domination and the return of zonality on the ensembles Shed? Because that is not what I see, more a continuance of the ridge after a brief weakening. And why do you say that most of us won't be too disappointed to see the gradual onset of zonality when you jolly well know that most of us would much prefer cold synoptics to show - or have you completed a private poll of MOD members wishes that only you are privy too?

Hi Chiono...the point I was making is I think most would prefer the return of zonality over anticyclonic gloom type synoptics, as at least zonality gives us a chance to develop something colder further down the line. As for the private poll, the answer is no.

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Posted
  • Location: winscombe north somerset
  • Weather Preferences: action weather
  • Location: winscombe north somerset

Im still finding plenty of interest in the further outlook charts ,we do i feel have a building block for some cold arctic air to grace our Shores come later this week and next .it will be interesting to see if ECM later picks up on what GFS is hinting at ,its picking it up i feel as a result of some very cold air being injected s/east into the North Atlantic and although its projected super low centre is the usuall GFS Dartboard it does give us i feel a possible clue as what may be a lurking .from a coldies perspective i hope to see other modells and long range charts starting to show this very soon .certainly the possibility of some action weather on the horizon .Posted Image

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Posted
  • Location: Cambridge
  • Location: Cambridge

Posted Image

 

Posted Image

Low res but still insane.

Well at least the warming is back over USA

 

Posted Image

Could you explain this a little more please SNOWM4N (or someone else) for those of us who don't understand what it shows? Thank you.

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