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Model Output Discussion 18th Nov.2013-12z onwards.


phil nw.

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Posted
  • Location: sheffield
  • Weather Preferences: cold ,snow
  • Location: sheffield

It is a forecast of a bit of warming in the strat - a long way out but if you remember, this chart (at +384) from last year was the harbinger of great things further down the line.

 

Posted Image

Its a fairly bog standard chart to be honest.check the latitude where the warmer temps are!!

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Posted
  • Location: Dublin
  • Location: Dublin

Terrific run to run consistency in the GFS now and an overwhelming sense that things have turned extremely grim all of a sudden.

 

Appears we are about to watch a slow car-crash of our early winter cold prospects, however it is only after mid November and a whole winter to go.

 

But we are set to move from a position where things had potential to a position 7-10days down the road of having a nightmareish set-up!

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Posted
  • Location: Newhey, Lancashire ( 165m a/s/l )
  • Weather Preferences: Snow
  • Location: Newhey, Lancashire ( 165m a/s/l )

Terrific run to run consistency in the GFS now and an overwhelming sense that things have turned extremely grim all of a sudden. Appears we are about to watch a slow car-crash of our early winter cold prospects, however it is only after mid November and a whole winter to go. But we are set to move from a position where things had potential to a position 7-10days down the road of having a nightmareish set-up!

Which should tell you that it is possible to move back again.
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Posted
  • Location: Royston, Herts 76m asl
  • Location: Royston, Herts 76m asl

Terrific run to run consistency in the GFS now and an overwhelming sense that things have turned extremely grim all of a sudden.

 

Appears we are about to watch a slow car-crash of our early winter cold prospects, however it is only after mid November and a whole winter to go.

 

But we are set to move from a position where things had potential to a position 7-10days down the road of having a nightmareish set-up!

 

Yes, that's the fun of model watching.

 

A week ago, Frosty and Steve Murr (for example) were saying EPIC, BOOM, BANK etc, because that is indeed what many of the model runs said.  It was all 2010 again.  Guess what?  It didn't happen.  Although zonal charts tend to be a bit more reliable than very cold ones, nevertheless things can and do change very quickly.

 

Who's to say that FI can't be built on so that we start to get cold synotics nearer the reliable time frame in the next few days?  The reality is that nobody knows what the weather will be like after next weekend, beyond the vaguest teleconnective hints that are so often wrong.

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Posted
  • Location: Darlington
  • Weather Preferences: Warm dry summers
  • Location: Darlington

The low at t288 north of the UK is further south on the 12z run from GFS

 

Posted Image

 

All down to the high pressure now a battle would commence its a case of who would win

 

For most it looks like the high will win the battle Scotland would be a bit more unsettled

 

Posted ImagePosted Image

 

Slightly cooler

 

Posted ImagePosted Image

Edited by Summer Sun
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Posted
  • Location: Exeter, Devon
  • Weather Preferences: Snow, thunderstorms
  • Location: Exeter, Devon
Posted (edited) · Hidden by Joe Levy, November 21, 2013 - I can't work out how to delete my post!
Hidden by Joe Levy, November 21, 2013 - I can't work out how to delete my post!

That doesn't matter too much. The key matter is if that warming then extends to higher latitudes i.e. Siberia

Its a fairly bog standard chart to be honest.check the latitude where the warmer temps are!!

Edited by Joe Levy
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Posted
  • Location: Dublin
  • Location: Dublin

Which should tell you that it is possible to move back again.

Yes indeed but i'd say with this slow toppling of the high and tightening up of the PV/lack of amplification in the flow. We can write off the next 15-20days.

Edited by Matty M
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Posted
  • Location: Cardiff/Reading Uni
  • Weather Preferences: Snow, Sun, Heat, Cold,T/storms via Spanish plumes *rare*
  • Location: Cardiff/Reading Uni

Arctic high on the 12z at 288hrs edging into Greenland...

Posted Image

Edited by Panayiotis
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Posted
  • Location: Newhey, Lancashire ( 165m a/s/l )
  • Weather Preferences: Snow
  • Location: Newhey, Lancashire ( 165m a/s/l )

I agree on this day in 62

Posted Imageimage.jpg

Then late November

Posted Imageimage.jpg

Then dec 10th 62

Posted Imageimage.jpg

So having a high floating around like around on charts at the moment carn't be a bad thing at all. Like said few post ago better than zonal .

Never know dec 62 might just make a visit lol

Posted Imageimage.jpg

Imagine the model thread in melt down writing off the winter of 62/63, as the route from that set up would be weeks of Zonal.

Oh wait.

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Posted
  • Location: Darlington
  • Weather Preferences: Warm dry summers
  • Location: Darlington

GFS has something more unsettled though it is 15 and 16 days away

 

Posted ImagePosted Image

Posted ImagePosted Image

 

But for the next 7 to 12 days high pressure is set to dominate for most

Edited by Summer Sun
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Posted
  • Location: Cardiff/Reading Uni
  • Weather Preferences: Snow, Sun, Heat, Cold,T/storms via Spanish plumes *rare*
  • Location: Cardiff/Reading Uni

Nice chart in FI again but that's the problem its staying in FI!

Posted Image

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Posted
  • Location: sheffield
  • Weather Preferences: cold ,snow
  • Location: sheffield

well at least the pv is split at "cough"360 hrs!Posted Image .Im quite happy for some dry weather tbh if theres nothing cold and wintry in the mo

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Posted
  • Location: Essex, Southend-On-Sea
  • Weather Preferences: Warm, bright summers and Cold, snowy winters
  • Location: Essex, Southend-On-Sea

That's close to a boom.

 

Posted Image

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Posted
  • Location: Ireland
  • Location: Ireland

Fantastic chart for the first week of winter. Arctic high (not the first time we've seen that crop up in deep FI), vortex being split. If that went on past T384 it would only get better. Shame it's only FI.

 

Posted Image

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Posted
  • Location: North East Cotswolds, 232m, 761feet ASL
  • Location: North East Cotswolds, 232m, 761feet ASL

November 2010 was a one off, if we want proper cold winter weather , we are better hoping that something happens mid December onwards anyway, sea temps also will be lower then which will aid any cold that may come our way.

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Posted
  • Location: Carryduff, County Down 420ft ASL
  • Location: Carryduff, County Down 420ft ASL

FI being driven by the Aleutian High pushing into the Pole and splitting the PV. This has shown up a few times now.

Would love to see something backing this up in the Strat thread.

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Hmm if you have nothing else to look forward to in recent outputs then have a look at this... http://modeles.meteociel.fr/modeles/gfs/runs/2013112106/gfsnh-10-384.png?6what a very very strong vortex in the places we dont want it? Or a warming thats 1:never gonna happen . Or 2: the fact the warming is in the wrong place?! Obviously its in the VERY FAR reaches of FI but its something to look forward to if you have nothing else to look at.

 

That would filter through as a wet and windy Christmas eve.

 

 

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Posted
  • Location: Lincoln
  • Weather Preferences: Winter
  • Location: Lincoln

Imagine the model thread in melt down writing off the winter of 62/63, as the route from that set up would be weeks of Zonal.Oh wait.

Haha yes .not to different to from now .? High around or on top of uk .
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Posted
  • Location: sheffield
  • Weather Preferences: cold ,snow
  • Location: sheffield

 

That would filter through as a wet and windy Christmas eve.

 

 

 

Posted Image Posted Image Posted Image Sorry mods but thats class

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Posted
  • Location: Ireland
  • Location: Ireland

Patience will be required for at least the next 7-10 days. Then, who knows....but at least it should be mostly dry and fine with high pressure dominating while we await the possibility of something more interesting in early Decemeber.

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