Model Output Discussion 18th Nov.2013-12z onwards.

[East_England_Stormchaser91]

Have to agree Ian,the 06z really ramps up the jet.Absolutely zero chance of anything approaching Northern blocking if that run verifies.The trouble is,i see little or no positives in any of the output this morning.On a positive note i'd rather get these grim synoptics out of the way now than say mid January!

Every chance is still possible of a sudden block happening to the North whatever the synoptics are. 1947 saw conditions as zonal as you could get before Uncle Barty trundled North without any warnings or signs at all. 1962 is also very similar to the current patterns at the moment. Also, the cold that we are seeing now was not featured in FI, and instead started trending less than 7 days out. We can never be certain on what the weather may be even as close as 5-7 days out. Only a very small minority of FI charts verify anyway, all it takes is a slight unprojected path of a system, then that changes things significantly in the long run.

[Frosty.]

Agree Karl but with High pressure parked to our south its difficult to see cooler or cold zonality.

The PFJ would still dig south at times hd with occasional amplification, I don't think we will be staring down the barrel at a prolonged sw / ne aligned jet with weeks and weeks of sw'ly mush.

[snow freak]

The dreaded Bartlett High.  Pity this system can't be blown out of the water and cease to exist forever.

[Matty M]

It's all looking pretty grim today.

 

Models going for return of strong PV and the HP settling in towards Europe.

 

Goes well with the hypothesis that we will have a very AO+ winter.

[Frosty.]

The GFS 06z op run is generally rather cold with below average temperatures for most of the run, just a couple of days when temps struggle back to average but there is nothing I would call mild, it's a generally settled run with frosts and fog and an ongoing chance of a more wintry blast popping up. I don't understand some of the comments re the 6z.

[Summer Sun]

High pressure pretty much dominates the 06z run from GFS from start to finish with the exception of Scotland for a few days, other than that a lot of dry weather is in store for a while now frost and fog will be the only hazards overnight at times

 

 

The 06z also shows temperatures getting back into double figures for a lot of us at some point next week, Tuesday night and into Wednesday looks fairly mild for most as well

 

Edited November 21, 2013 by Summer Sun

[shedhead]

As far as the next 7 days are concerned the models offer a case for both sides of the slightly below/slightly above average temps on a local basis, but in general I think slighty above is probably the more likely of the two. Without question some large variations look likely for the next 3 or 4 days, with double digit maxes in some southern coastal areas and possibly sub zero maxes where fog persists.  However, as more and more cloud gets into the system next week the coldest places look set to become milder, whilst the mildest spots look set to become colder, but overall the trend is likely to be slightly upwards imo.  The one thing the period does not have is extremes in either direction on a national basis, so there is really no point in trying to make a case for either, but that does look set to change in the longer term as all areas probably become significantly milder. 

Edited November 21, 2013 by shedhead

[Purga]

Excluding any false spin - the outlook is bad for cold lovers with a mediocre  mild possibly coolish cloudy high pressure area taking residence mostly to the SW of the BI feeding in mild gunk around the top. Cloudy mild days and mild nights with the odd pocket of frost or fog in favoured spots if the sky deigns to clear for a few milliseconds - LOL.

Otherwise hopeless charts like this

 

 

Roll on a zonal reset for about 6 weeks and then see what happens in the new Year.  

[nick sussex]

The GFS lower resolution hopefully remains just there never to see the light of day!

 

In terms of the GFS operational I should draw attention to comments from NOAA because they do have some impact on the pattern to our west.

 

STARTING WITH A BLEND OF THE 18Z GEFS/12Z ECMWF MEANS PROVIDESREASONABLE CONTINUITY FROM PREVIOUS CYCLE FOR RESOLVING DETAILISSUES WITHIN THE ERN NOAM MEAN TROUGH... ITS PSBL INTERACTION BYTUE-WED WITH THE CLOSED LOW TRACKING EWD FROM THE SWRN STATES...AND HANDLING OF HGT FALLS NEARING THE WEST COAST LATE IN THEPERIOD.  WHILE THERE IS GOOD CONSENSUS IN THE EXPECTED LARGE SCALEPATTERN THERE IS A FAIR AMOUNT OF MODEL/ENSEMBLE SPREAD WITH THEFINER DETAILS OF THE FCST.

 

RECENT GFS RUNS...INCL THE NEW 00Z VERSION WHICH APPEARS PARTICULARLY QUESTIONABLEWITH ITS SHRTWV CROSSING THE NORTHEAST EARLY TUE... ARE FLATTERTHAN CONSENSUS WITH THE NRN STREAM TROUGH BY MID-LATE PERIOD.  ASA RESULT THE GFS BECOMES MORE SUPPRESSED WITH THE SRN TIER LOWPRESSURE AND ASSOC MSTR.  AT THE MOMENT THERE APPEARS TO BE ASTRONG ENOUGH UPSTREAM RIDGE TO SUPPORT THE CONSENSUS REPRESENTEDBY THE ENSEMBLE MEANS AND IN PRINCIPLE BY RECENT ECMWF RUNS.

 

 

With the movement of the bulk of the PV towards the Siberian side there is a small opportunity as this happens to bring some colder air southwards. Realistically the best IMO that can be got out of this is a brief northerly toppler but something is better than nothing!

 

 

 

 

Edited November 21, 2013 by nick sussex

[Methuselah]

Who or what is a 'zonal reset'? And, more to the point, why would we want one?

[carinthian]

Snowfalls and at times increasingly cold arctic sourced air mass forecast for the next 10 days in the Eastern Alps. Our snow computer forecasts 50 cm by the end of this month. The solid UK block is great for us at our longitude regarding winter wonderland conditions. Longer term I think the UK will tap into the real cold mass, never that far away. Better you having dry and fairly chilly conditions rather than SWly moisture laden flow.

 C

[Bristawl Si]

 

Like it or not there is no denying the excellent inter run consistancy of GFS, even at T+240hrs....with Barty still very much in place.

 

 

This is a pretty good indication of what was said earlier this week regarding weather from the S or W being much more likely (but of course by no means guaranteed) to verify post T+144hrs than anything from the N or E.

 

Time will tell of course, but even now I suspect there is a pretty good chance that this 'general pattern' will be in place come Dec 1st.

And i think this is what Ian F was alluding to in his posts earlier this week,info supplied by Meto to him.

[Frosty.]

The GEFS 06z mean is anticyclonic just about all the way through, at least for the southern half of the uk, there is some ebb and flow between low pressure to the north and high pressure across the south but in terms of unsettled weather, it's only the northern third of the uk at risk of stronger winds and occasional rain from time to time, most of the uk continues settled with frost and fog and some sunshine.

[EML Network]

Can't see why everyone is so dispondant , those ''mean height'' anomaly positions mean diddly squat at 10 days out.

 

They hardly ever come off as analoged during Winter.

 

All I can see is a continued cool set up which will help to reduce the SST and aid colder weather further down the line , Europe looks to finally get cold as well so there's the added advantage there too.

 

It's the 21st November !!! you don't want it to be freezing cold with tonnes of snow in November, in years gone by when that's happened the rest of Winter has sucked.

 

I think December is going to surprise many later on in the month and I'm putting a 20 quid bet on it being a white one this year at the local bookies

[Carl46Wrexham]

Have to agree Ian,the 06z really ramps up the jet.Absolutely zero chance of anything approaching Northern blocking if that run verifies.

The trouble is,i see little or no positives in any of the output this morning.

 

On a positive note i'd rather get these grim synoptics out of the way now than say mid January!

Trouble with these kind of synoptics, as we all know only too well....is that once they become established they have an unpleasant tendency to stick around for weeks on end. Weeks of gloomy skies, above average temperatures night and day, copious rainfall with the attendant muck, mud and local floods, and worst of all, the jaw clenching annoyance of having to watch and listen to grinning forecasters banging on about "how mild it is" on another grim wet technically "mild" day which feels cold because of the relentless gusty west/south west winds.

 

Ugh! Can feel my S.A.D symptoms readying themselves........

Edited November 21, 2013 by Carl46Wrexham

[Summer Sun]

For the new members on here who struggle to read the models there is 3 excellent learning sections here http://forum.netweather.tv/forum/5-the-netweather-guides/ here http://forum.netweather.tv/forum/69-learners-area/ and here http://forum.netweather.tv/forum/68-advanced-discussions/

 

 

 

[Radiating Dendrite]

Trouble with these kind of synoptics, as we all know only too well....is that once they become established they have an unpleasant tendency to stick around for weeks on end. Weeks of gloomy skies, above average temperatures night and day, copious rainfall with the attendant muck, mud and local floods, and worst of all, the jaw clenching annoyance of having to watch and listen to grinning forecasters banging on about "how mild it is" on another grim wet technically "mild" day which feels cold because of the relentless gusty west/south west winds.

 

Ugh! Can feel my S.A.D symptoms readying themselves........

 

There won't be copious amounts of rainfall not with the high over us from here to infinity according to the models.

[Catacol]

Morning allI see over last week or two there have been post's on similar weather patterns as years gone by.Well I have came across this.History repeating itself november 1963 V's 2013.Its a good read enjoy.http://www.weather.com/news/history-repeating-itself-november-1963-2013-thanksgiving-20131120?hootPostID=a3a68f098203706bd027f5c9f6884555

 

 

It's also true to say if you flick through the archives that the latter part of november and much of december 62 was characterised by high pressure hanging around the UK with occasional drifting south and allowing cold zonality in over the top. The HP then migrated to Scandy as Xmas approached... and the rest is history. The point is that at this time of year having HP around the uk is no bad thing... and as has been suggested by some observers we are actually in a rather interesting global pattern where ridging is occuring despite the strong vortex, and the pattern is meridional from the pacific round to the atlantic. This too isnt a bad thing at all if cold is what you want. If HP continues to show its hand north of Europe then we are potentially in business. IB is right - we need it at high latitude to get the really cold temps across us - and the november we have had so far would suggest that this is very possible as the season goes on.

 

Another 62/63? Yes please. I wasnt alive then - but now that Examination modules have disappeared from January (hooray!!) I would not be unhappy to have some snow inspired disruption. Sorry for an IMBY perspective there - I am aware that for many such disruption is bad news....

[Frosty.]

Hey people..i'm searching for a major cold spell during early winter and I won't give up...chance of a cold blast through early december, a few very wintry GEFS 06z perturbations...and even before that, it's a rather cold and settled outlook with frost & fog, nothing mild at all.

Edited November 21, 2013 by Frosty.

[Catacol]

A most progressive 06z, and we would be looking down the zonal barrel for some time should this verify.

 

Zonal arrives here on 30 Nov according to GFS 06z

 

 

 

but is then well and truly blocked out by 5 Dec

 

 

Prior to 30 Nov 06z shows no zonal at least at our latitude. Greenland pressure has fallen by 26 or 27 Nov but HP stays far enough north for the UK to be unaffected until 30 Nov.

 

06z therefore suggests a temporary zonal flow.

[Captain Shortwave]

Hey people..i'm searching for a major cold spell during early winter and I won't give up...chance of a cold blast through early december, a few very wintry GEFS 06z perturbations...and even before that, it's a rather cold and settled outlook with frost & fog, nothing mild at all.

again it's all down to the orientation of the high, but that statement is a little misleading, for example the GFS op shows double figures widespread over England and Wales in 6 days time for example with a high of 13C in south west Wales

By this time of year getting double figures is pretty mild to be honest.

 

Again there is nothing zonal within the reliable but we are entering weather purgatory with high pressure close to the UK. Many examples of cold and zonal end games from here so there is still plenty to debate longer term. The models we have seen do suggest that the high sinks slowly introducing a more general westerly flow (except the ECM which has a northerly toppler). Worth noting the CFS still wants some form north easterly flow setting up into December with strong low heights over the Med and higher heights to the north of the UK. The polar vortex is not fully in charge here so it's just a case of seeing how things land for us.

Edited November 21, 2013 by Captain shortwave

[Frosty.]

I'm not misleading anyone captain, I said there were a few very wintry 6z perturbations and that is precisely what I have described and shown, I said there is a chance as opposed to no chance.and there really isn't anything mild showing..scraping average here or there at times but not a blowtorch in sight.

 

I didn't understand all the despondency about the 6z op run either, 90-95 % of that run shows below average temps and a lot of frosts.

Edited November 21, 2013 by Frosty.

[shedhead]

again it's all down to the orientation of the high, but that statement is a little misleading, for example the GFS op shows double figures widespread over England and Wales in 6 days time for example with a high of 13C in south west Wales

By this time of year getting double figures is pretty mild to be honest.

 

Again there is nothing zonal within the reliable but we are entering weather purgatory with high pressure close to the UK. Many examples of cold and zonal end games from here so there is still plenty to debate longer term. The models we have seen do suggest that the high sinks slowly introducing a more general westerly flow (except the ECM which has a northerly toppler). Worth noting the CFS still wants some form north easterly flow setting up into December with strong low heights over the Med and higher heights to the north of the UK. The polar vortex is not fully in charge here so it's just a case of seeing how things land for us.

The problem is (as often the case in Winter) if you take any of the big 3's T+144hr the route to mild SW'elies looks smooth and easy, whilst the route to cold N'erlies or E'erlies looks long and tourtuous. Clearly a colder pattern can and obviously will develop eventually, but I think the chances of it happening without us having to go through a mild zonal phase first is pretty slim tbh. How long any mild, zonal phase is remains very much open to question, but again playing the %'ages you would not expect it to be a 2 or 3 day affair in early winter as the PV is firing up, in fact 2 or 3 weeks is probably a lot more likely....perhaps even longer.

Edited November 21, 2013 by shedhead

[karlos1983]

 

Anyway, it certainly isn't looking great for coldies for the foreseeable,

 

but as we saw with the Atlantic onslaught in October and early November, it will come to an end at some point, who knows what the models might be showing in 3 or 4 days, I'll be glued to them that's for sure.

[Methuselah]

I don't like personal snipes any more than anyone-else does; but, merely disagreeing with what one person states (as though it were a fact) is hardly personal...

 

Sometimes, we just need to 'agree to disagree'?