Model Output Discussion 18th Nov.2013-12z onwards.

[Duane S.]

No sign of a zonal flow up to T384 (and onwards seemingly). MLB start to finish with, as usual the severe cold east and west to us:

gfs-1-144.png gfs-1-216.png

In fact the anomaly for higher heights over the UK strengthens during the run:

T180: gfsnh-12-180.png T384: gfsnh-12-384.png

A clear signal from GFS FI op that cold is spilling south, a close call at the moment for the UK: gfs-1-384.png

However the mean is less cold, so that FI not convincing with a trend yet:

gens-21-0-372.png

 

MLB, cold occasionally spilling down into the Med I think will be a common theme going through December and well into the first half of winter.

 

Not disasterous for us by any means and it does mean we could well be on the cusp at times. Depending on the exact location of the UK block  it will likely be on the cold side for us but very dry to boot.

Edited November 21, 2013 by s4lancia

[Nick F]

Looks like our weather will be dominated by a mean ridge close to our west for the reliable - which may pull over the UK for a time, before retreating SW or S. Any big changes may hinge on whether the large pool of low heights way to the north in the arctic circle can fragment/split to allow amplification in the flow. As the jet look to stay rather flat for a while to the north - which doesn't allow deep cold air to sink south our way.

 

There are signs at the end of the 00z ECM deter of a trough amplifying south over central/eastern Europe - as cold air finally escapes south, helped by the presence of troughing already present over SE Europe. This maybe the most feesible way to a change from the short-term position, though the trouble is with this route, is that the deep cold often ends up further east of the UK.

Edited November 21, 2013 by Nick F

[YorkshireLiving]

Excellent post I'm dreaming of cold tantalisingly close but not reaching the U.K. There is no sign of zonal weather either. Looking way into the future what do people think of the PV split. is  this significant? 

[Polar Maritime]

Excellent post I'm dreaming of cold tantalisingly close but not reaching the U.K. There is no sign of zonal weather either. Looking way into the future what do people think of the PV split. is this significant?

It could be "IF" it happens. Certainly something the models have been toying with at that range.

Yes nothing zonal in the models once again with temps staying below average. A nice crisp sunny weekend coming up, perfect for the great outdoors !

Edited November 21, 2013 by Polar Maritime

[Frosty.]

The GEFS 00z mean shows high pressure building in strongly during the coming days with frost and fog becoming more widespread but outside of the foggy areas there will be a good deal of sunshine but it won't do much for the temperatures, low to mid single digits celsius maxima but closer to freezing in the foggy areas. During next week the high looks less in control and tends to become centred to the west or southwest of the uk and the result of this is to allow cloudier and slightly milder atlantic air to spill across the north and then down the eastern side of the uk with less frost and fog risk due to more cloud and breeze. Towards the end of the 0z mean there is a suggestion of an early december arctic cold snap. 

Edited November 21, 2013 by Frosty.

[Summer Sun]

Last night I said that the north or north easterly between t216 and t240 would be short lived ECM this morning shows this

 

 

Cooler in the east at the very end before the high would push east and cut the flow off

 

[joggs]

Well personally im very happy with the modelr showing settled cool weather and hopefully clear days,frosty nights and maybe help view comet ison in december.Could be alot worse!.

[nick sussex]

Not much change this morning from the models, high pressure close by upto 240hrs. The ECM is similar to last nights run but we can see the apparent problem for those wanting to see something more wintry. The pattern upstream remains flat so even though there is a small window of opportunity this comes to nothing with any cold moving south to the east of the UK.

So its a case of hoping the models might scrape a bit more amplification upstream, even if we see a northerly this is unlikely to hang around for too long but still it would give us some interest going forward.

[Cecil Hogmanay Melchett]

Well personally im very happy with the modelr showing settled cool weather and hopefully clear days,frosty nights and maybe help view comet ison in december.Could be alot worse!.

In one way i agree,certainly the part about settled colder weather.

The NH profile however looks pretty poor for coldies with little or no prospect of blocking up north  as far as the eye can see.

[BLAST FROM THE PAST]

MR I agree and have mentioned in the seasonal forecast thread.  The propensity for the HP not to sink way SE allows at times very cold air to flood into Scandi and Europe.  If correct, and they seem reasonable, this IMO bodes well as we progress through winter.  IB is correct that no imminent signs we'll tap into it, but better it be on our doorstep than say east of Black Sea.

Models show potential for more flirting cold shots.......not uninteresting

 

 

BFTP

[Frosty.]

High pressure dominates the Ecm 00z ens mean from start to finish although it very slowly drifts further south allowing atlantic weather to eventually spill across the far north of the uk, but for many areas the next 10 days would be largely fine with light winds, sunny spells by day but with fog and frost overnight and early mornings, the frost should lift but in any stubborn foggy areas, temps could hover close to freezing all day. By T+240 there are signs of changes afoot with a deep low swinging southeast from the southern tip of Greenland which could bring a spell of unsettled weather into early december.

[Man With Beard]

Not much to say at the moment except that the ground will get a nice dry out next week and take care on those slippery pavements first thing in the morning! Still think this isn't too bad a position, a brief weakness in the PV flow to our north and heights can get sucked up quite quickly.

[Summer Sun]

Latest from Gibby on the 00z models

 

All models show High pressure to the NW gradually gaining total control over the UK weather for the foreseeable future. Today will see the remnants of yesterday's Low still affect England and Wales with some showers but these will decay with time and from tomorrow on it really is just a case of how much cloud gets caught up in the circulation of our slow moving anticyclone which will totally determine what weather results at the surface. It looks increasingly likely that there will be a fair amount of cloud at times with the best breaks across the West and South. As a result frosts will be most likely here but  elsewhere too where skies clear but freezing fog patches will be more restrictive place to place and day today as the variability of cloud continues next week. Daytime temperatures may recover to average without the presence of fog but very much below where this persists.

 

GFS then shows a rather cloudy NW flow towards midweek before a return to High pressure continues the variable nature of cloud cover and frost and fog chances. In fact most areas are shown to become milder and cloudy for a time under a West breeze as the High slips South to France. Then at the end of the run a push of cold air South over Europe grazes Eastern Britain with a renewed strengthening and colder High pressure covering the UK at the end of the run.

 

UKMO maintains High pressure to the WSW of Britain at it's term and while fog and frost would be likely a lot of cloud would be rounding the High to the North and toppling down over the UK in the light Northerly drift restricting the risk at times and removing the chance of much in the way of sunshine too. Temperatures would gradually respond to less frost by reaching average levels at times during the day.

 

GEM today keeps a UK based High for much of next week before slipping it away to the South with a strong Westerly flow across the UK by next weekend. This would mean the fine and dry spell with patchy frosts would be replaced by mild and overcast weather with rain and drizzle near Northern and Western hills and coasts.

 

NAVGEM shows a strong Atlantic anticyclone over Ireland late next week and with warm uppers there will be a lot of cloud in it's circulation meaning 'anticyclonic gloom' for many with dry weather and temperatures close to average and only very restricted amounts of fog and frost at night due to cloud cover.

 

ECM today too shows a cloudy High developing next week as the frosts and cold air of the weekend dissolve into 'anticyclonic gloom' next week. As a result temperatures will rise to average levels by day especially. Longer term there are hints of a flirtation with a cold surge over Europe but being on the periphery only minor changes to a brighter and colder phase looks likely in the East before milder and cloudy air topples back across from the West at the end of the run.

 

The GFS Ensembles show a period of sustained normality and average conditions for the next 10-14 days with little chance of significant weather of any kind. Instead most members show High pressure in the wrong place to deliver clear blue skies and sunshine but instead are likely to infill with cloud and with little or no wind a period of 'featureless' weather is indicated. Things are hinted at becoming a little more unsettled late in the run as Low pressure makes some inroads into the UK.

 

The Jet Stream continues to be programmed to be powering East well to the North of the UK over Iceland and Northern Scandinavia for the reliable future.

 

In Summary it looks pretty bleak for weather observers of any kind this morning as the position of High pressure becomes condusive in preventing anything other than bland and benign conditions across the UK for the foreseeable future. With High pressure to the West or WSW the UK will come under the influence of warmer uppers and atmosphered filled cloud rounding the Northern flank of the High and down over Britain next week. So after a chilly weekend with frost and fog possibilities it looks like next week could become cloudy and mostly dry with little day/night variance in temperatures as the term 'anticyclonic gloom' becomes borne out. Should skies clear then fog and frost is still possible of course and is impossible to predict at this range. However, with just the far reaches of extended outputs showing anything different to this pattern we are going to have to be very patient over the next few weeks of model watching and search for model to model and run to run support for trends.

 

http://www.norton-radstockweather.co.uk/Model-Analysis(2859336).htm

Edited November 21, 2013 by Summer Sun

[shedhead]

Another HP dominated overnight model suite, with no sign at all that HLB is likely to develop any time soon. As a straw ECM at least offers a root to getting some cold air into Eastern Europe at T+240hrs, but at the same time GFS has that most unwelcome relative Uncle Barty walking up the drive....what we can't see atm though is if he's dragging a massive suitcase, or just carrying a small overnight bag...

[shedhead]

Not much to say at the moment except that the ground will get a nice dry out next week and take care on those slippery pavements first thing in the morning! Still think this isn't too bad a position, a brief weakness in the PV flow to our north and heights can get sucked up quite quickly.

Not sure frosts will be much of a featured during next week rjbw, in fact it currently appears they will become an increasingly rare beast as more and more cloud gets trapped under the HP.

[Gavin Hannah]

TFINZM is all i have to say this morning. See if you can work that out lol. This pattern of weather is a next best if you ask me. If we're not getting an arctic blast with snow, i'd settle for this over zonal atlantic any day of the week.

It puts us in a much better position as we enter winter. And we arent getting drowned in rain or blasted by gales.

[Summer Sun]

A few places in the south could reach double figures (just) this weekend

 

 

Then into the new working week parts of Scotland could also reach double figures (especially in the far north and East)

 

 

With all the cloud probably around overnight temps hold up quite well north of the Midlands

 

 

Wednesday has double figures quite widely with parts of the south coast pushing towards the mid teens

 

 

Thursday is slightly cooler in the north but temps in the south continue around 9c to 12c

 

Edited November 21, 2013 by Summer Sun

[I remember Atlantic 252]

TFINZM is all i have to say this morning. See if you can work that out lol. This pattern of weather is a next best if you ask me. If we're not getting an arctic blast with snow, i'd settle for this over zonal atlantic any day of the week.It puts us in a much better position as we enter winter. And we arent getting drowned in rain or blasted by gales.

 

agree with that, does it stand for thank f-k its not zonal muck

[erv]

Morning all

I see over last week or two there have been post's on similar weather patterns as years gone by.

Well I have came across this.

History repeating itself november 1963 V's 2013.

Its a good read enjoy.

http://www.weather.com/news/history-repeating-itself-november-1963-2013-thanksgiving-20131120?hootPostID=a3a68f098203706bd027f5c9f6884555

[shedhead]

Morning allI see over last week or two there have been post's on similar weather patterns as years gone by.Well I have came across this.History repeating itself november 1963 V's 2013.Its a good read enjoy.http://www.weather.com/news/history-repeating-itself-november-1963-2013-thanksgiving-20131120?hootPostID=a3a68f098203706bd027f5c9f6884555

Not really the right thread, but can I ask what point you are trying to make? 

[Biensie]

Not really the right thread, but can I ask what point you are trying to make? 

 

I thought it was interesting!

[stewfox]

A few places in the south could reach double figures (just) this weekend

 

 

Then into the new working week parts of Scotland could also reach double figures (especially in the far north and East)

 

 

 

 

Yes the Isle of Scilly but the fast majorly of areas showing below average in the 1c-7c range and of course where fog persist we could have some freezing days

 

Bleak is a word that has been used ?

 

Depending on the position of the high of course but we are looking at temps below the long term average in the foreseeable

 

Cloud cover will have an impact in the diurnal range but in the short term freezing fog and some really cold days are likely in some favoured spots.

 

I don’t see any Bartlett or any South Westerly flows or any +10c way out and beyond FI for the fast majority of the UK.

 

The cold pool to our East has left the Black sea and heads west and there is plenty of interest popping up in F1.

 

Bleak to me is +14c light rain on 1st December

[Summer Sun]

The ECM ensemble is closer to the GFS Op and its own ensemble this morning by building pressure across mainland Europe and the UK

 

ECM Op seems to be on its own

 

 

ECM ensemble

 

 

GFS Op and Ensemble

 

 

If the ECM Op run back tracks to GFS this evening it won't be a surprise

Edited November 21, 2013 by Summer Sun

[swfc]

On the 6z the colder 850s creep a bit further west at the 84 hr mark.nothing drastic but still a small move!

[Frosty.]

I wonder if we are getting closer to a cold blast early next month, the Ecm 00z op run is looking promising at T+216 hours, hopefully it can build on this with a full on blast with more of a NE'ly tilt with the atlantic high adjusting further west.

Edited November 21, 2013 by Frosty.