Model Output Discussion 18th Nov.2013-12z onwards.

[Mucka]

Familiar theme from GFS, it will be interesting to see if it has correctly picked up the signal for height rises to our NW in the first week of December so far out.

 

[Snowman.]

Nice icelantic wedge pushing north to meet heights on the other side with an LP slipping down under.

 

Edited November 20, 2013 by SN0WM4N

[Weathizard]

Eagerly awaiting to see the Ensembles between 72-108, you never know, if it corrected the same amount west in the next 12 hours.. Certainly interesting... 95% won't but I still think it could be onto something, correcting that far west is quite significant really in that time range.

[Jason M]

Familiar theme from GFS, it will be interesting to see if it has correctly picked up the signal for height rises to our NW in the first week of December so far out.

 

 

 

This happened a lot last year where the models keep picking out longer range Greenland blocks only to replace them with weak scandi heights as day zero approached. It seems like a quirk of the longer range GFS outputs.

 

Having watched from afar over recent days I actually think GFS has performed okay in terms of its medium range output. It was never buying into the 'cold spell'. I know not everyone will agree though which is fair enough.

 

Jason

[Cloud 10]

A perfect illustration of the short term modelling changes when comparing the old fax chart for Sunday with tonight's.

 

yeserday..  today..

Edited November 20, 2013 by Cloud 10

[radiohead]

Eagerly awaiting to see the Ensembles between 72-108, you never know, if it corrected the same amount west in the next 12 hours.. Certainly interesting... 95% won't but I still think it could be onto something, correcting that far west is quite significant really in that time range.

 

Yes it's hard to imagine an even further correction on the 0Z, and yet that been the trend today. Reminds me a little of those annoying downgrades where you'd see a gradual movement in the wrong direction on every single run as you got closer to the day.

[Frosty.]

I think the gfs is performing pretty well actually, its the ecm with egg on its face. A nice calm frosty spell is almost here, it should last between 7-10 days, maybe longer.

[bluearmy]

just the hint of a cool down on the london ecm ens in a fortnights time. would co incide with nceps amplification.

[Matty M]

Looks like no ensembles for us!

[weirpig]

what time does the ensembles come out, i thought they started to trickle out by now, any cause for the delay?

[radiohead]

Today's 18Z GFS ensembles have been canceled.

 

http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod/prodstat_new/prdst_18_UTC_GLOBAL_ENSEMBLE.html

 

Edit : It's updated and starting to roll out now.

Edited November 21, 2013 by radiohead

[Matty M]

Today's 18Z GFS ensembles have been canceled.

 

http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod/prodstat_new/prdst_18_UTC_GLOBAL_ENSEMBLE.html

Cheers, typical!

[John Cox]

The improvement continues in FI over 12z

The Hi pressure is further north

 

[Panayiotis]

Many more ensembles going for colder outcomes in FI! Again like ive been saying its definitely one to watch!

For my area:

http://modeles.meteociel.fr/modeles/gens/graphe_ens3.php?x=205&ext=1&y=142&run=18&runpara=0

[Gaz1985]

Looking rather snowy in East France. 

 

http://modeles.meteociel.fr/modeles/gens/graphe_ens3.php?x=592&ext=1&y=270&run=18&runpara=0

[radiohead]

The 18Z GEFS mean shows the westward correction of colder air, it wasn't just the operational run. The -8 line is much further west.

 

12Z :

 

 

18 Z :

 

[alexisj9]

May be this could explain the westward movement of tonight's 18z, to my eye the low is further west. I am no expert so could be wrong.

 

http://www.sat24.com/de/de?ir=true

[Panayiotis]

FI on the 18z ensembles is the best out since I have spotted the trend of the ridge in the Atlantic (yesterdays 18z). I say this because 60% of the ensembles bring colder weather to the UK at 348hrs:

The other 40% are these:

At 372hrs, 65% of the ensembles maintain a cold flow:

We are not even in winter but to see these charts early on are for me a nice sign...

Edited November 21, 2013 by Panayiotis

[mpkio2]

You like many are somewhat dissapointed about the "Failed" servre(sp?) cold spell many models were predicting in their output (Gotta give it to the GFS for getting some of the mid-term pattern right even when all models were against it - When I say "right", I mean it is the most "favoured" pattern predicted by all the Top dog models (i.e. UKMO and ECM). There was always a little voice telling me to keep my head grounded from getting excited, telling myself that it may never happen (I just remember "That ECM" from December 2012 - ). So all in all, I'm not as dissapointed as I might have been if I really did believe the model output - (If anything I was dubious and considered anything over t96 to be FL.

 

However, its still the end of November - AUTTUM!!- and to have a cold/chilly/frosty/settled spell will be most welcomed in my books - anything but zonal dross! Anything other than this is good:

 

So the hunt fopr the next northerly/cold spell begins as the 18z GFS ensemble just crocked out some cracking FL chrats! Agin, nothing to take seriously but hopefully, a new trend to follw and to watch evolve:

 

P4: (Bounds of potential here!):

 

P5 (Not exactly "cold" but the PV looks disrupted at least):

 

P6 (Col polar northerly incoming!):

 

P8 (There's even potential here; another disrupted PV!):

 

P10 (Speaks for itself really):

 

P17 (And my favourite: Split vortext with a cross polar flow with a UK-wide snowfall! ):

 

Again, I most emphasis that all these are hand selected and are in the far reaches of FL (Half members were going mildish-cool, some cold and some really cold). Like before, these may not even come off and probably won;t with our luck, but its always good to see that the models are outputting us with something optimistic than all members going mild and zonal type weather. Just thought I would brighten up the mood in this place a bit.

 

Cheer up people; its not even Winter yet!!!

[MR EXTREMES]

incredible amount of cold sjowing across the board cold to our north east west and southeast in latter out puts now surely something is brewing.

[shaky]

incredible amount of cold sjowing across the board cold to our north east west and southeast in latter out puts now surely something is brewing.

has the gfs carried on from the 18z by flinging those cold 850s from the east further west.

[That ECM]

has the gfs carried on from the 18z by flinging those cold 850s from the east further west.

No not really. It's only in the later output ie T 300 plus. There is a lot of cold air about but we miss out at this time. Happy to continue to see this type of set up moving forward because it gives us chances with a few small movements here and there. I for one do not want a reset pattern to emerge as some have suggested because it could be a long time from there to cold. If, as shown, the high stays over or near to us, at least we have seasonal and mainly dry weather.

[Ian Brown]

incredible amount of cold sjowing across the board cold to our north east west and southeast in latter out puts now surely something is brewing.

 

It's only brewing for us if we can see High latitude blocking, which at the moment is not on the cards.

[IDO]

No sign of a zonal flow up to T384 (and onwards seemingly). MLB start to finish with, as usual the severe cold east and west to us:

In fact the anomaly for higher heights over the UK strengthens during the run:

T180: T384:

A clear signal from GFS FI op that cold is spilling south, a close call at the moment for the UK:

However the mean is less cold, so that FI not convincing with a trend yet:

[Duane S.]

ECM on Wetterzentrale is a case of spot the difference. Obviously something's not quite right there. Either that or our weather is just about to grind to a halt!