Model Output Discussion 18th Nov.2013-12z onwards.

[shaky]

Ecm is slightly different to this mornings at 168 hours.the cold pool to our east is closer and also upper air temps are cooler across england and Wales

[Summer Sun]

The high still clinging onto the UK blocking any attacks from the north, becoming cooler for Scotland

 

Edited November 20, 2013 by Summer Sun

[Chess01]

You can see from the 168 and the 192 chart that The high is starting to move north towards Greenland

[Jonan92]

Nor'easter in United States, maybe it moves the energy up to the north at t216 letting the vortex to sink in Europe

[Matty M]

ECMWF going for serious cold plunge for United States. Early winter for them.

[swfc]

On both ecm and gfs the only change from this morning is that between the 72-96 hour period when the high is ridging and slightly more amplified.Also the colder air is slight;y further west but no impact on the uk.Otherwise pv,mlb ete is as you were atm.

[Don]

Yes John, when people talk of a reset ie to zonality they need to be careful what they wish for as such set-ups can last weeks and months.

I fully agree. This has happened before when people have wished for a zonal 'reset' only for it to last for ages and ages, sometimes scuppering the rest of Winter!

[Summer Sun]

Slightly more unsettled for Scotland at t216, elsewhere remains under high pressure

 

 

Looking at the bigger picture parts of eastern USA could be in for a taste of winter next week

 

[nick sussex]

There is one positive to take from tonights output if you're hoping to avoid the pain of mild sw'erlies and zonal mush. The movement east of the main vortex towards Siberia.

 

Rather there than stuck over southern Greenland which would be a one way ticket to mild.You can see at 192hrs the ECM is desperate to bring some colder weather south but theres no trigger, ie not enough amplification upstream so the key area once again is the eastern USA, as the PV moves east watch that area to see what sort of amplification there is.

 

If we can find some more amplification you might get a northerly, but that's way into the future and regardless of what the ECM goes onto show over the next few days  we've seen its bias over the last week so we need to bear that in mind.

[Summer Sun]

Short lived northerly or north easterly at t240 before the high pushes across the UK once more

 

 

Low pressure remains anchored over Greenland

Edited November 20, 2013 by Summer Sun

[Captain Shortwave]

Day 10 Northerly on the ECM

 

Please stop teasing us ECM 

[swfc]

Short lived northerly or north easterly at t240 before the high pushes across the UK once more

 

 

Low pressure remains anchored over Greenland

yep id agree.looks like a ongoing set up with the mid atlantic block moving into or over the uk while ever the pv stays in situ.Never really mild but standard late autumn early winter fair imo

[Gael_Force]

Short lived northerly or north easterly at t240 before the high pushes across the UK once more

 

 

Low pressure remains anchored over Greenland

 

How can you say it is short lived when the run ends at that point?

[swfc]

How can you say it is short lived when the run ends at that point?

Looking to the strength of the pv to the north the high would more likely than not be pushed ese on that run

Edited November 20, 2013 by swfc

[Summer Sun]

How can you say it is short lived when the run ends at that point?

 

Look at the high there is only one way its heading, it can't go north with all the low pressure up there, it would force the low east thus it would be bang over the UK once more

Edited November 20, 2013 by Summer Sun

[Ian Brown]

How can you say it is short lived when the run ends at that point?

 

It's going to topple over the UK as the core of heights is too far South in the Atlantic. Not that it matters at T240.

[Cecil Hogmanay Melchett]

Kinda of a nomans land moving forward with a mid Atlantic high and low pressure across SE Europe.

 

We desperately need some amplification upstream and its game on for a Northerly,the problem is that strong jet raging to the north.

[Gael_Force]

Look at the high there is only one way its heading, it can't go north with all the low pressure up there, it would force the low east thus it would be bang over the UK once more

 

You could have said the same thing at 192, yet the ridging still managed to extend far enough north to allow the northerly at 240.

Of, course it is far ahead but it is there and valid for discussion.

[Frosty.]

GEFS 12z mean looks even more anticyclonic than the 06z with the southern half of the uk continuing fine and chilly with fog and frost with daytime temps struggling in the low single digits celsius and where fog persists, temps close to freezing with some ice days. Those temperatures shown here will only be reached in areas not affected by stubborn fog patches.

[nick sussex]

I think the modeled pattern is not bad for cold lovers Nick.

Atlantic blocking continues to show into week 2 indicating with some of the jet being sent south into S.Europe.

http://modeles.meteociel.fr/modeles/gfs/runs/2013112012/gfsnh-5-144.png?12

 

Noticeable how some quite cold air is heading into Scandinavia and then south into C and E. Europe over the next few days.

http://www.meteociel.fr/modeles/ecmwf/runs/2013112012/ECM0-120.GIF?20-0

 

If the block orientates more in our favour we could tap into that off a south easterly- the ECM t144hrs get close to that.

Yes I think its encouraging to see still some energy heading into southern Europe, also the PV reluctant to set up shop in its normal resting place, in that run of hideous mild winters we often saw only one outcome with this type of mid latitude high, an eventual sinking to usher in a spell of mild sw'erlies. I'm not sure how long we can sustain it without some change in the upstream pattern. But as long as the PV doesn't enter into courtship with southern Greenland then we can view this as a holding pattern.

[Summer Sun]

Latest from Gibby on the 12z models, It is hard to see anything other than a sustained and prolonged period of quiet weather with light winds, frost and fog at night and some sunshine by day over the coming week to 10 days

 

All models look very similar in synoptic set-up for the next week or so as High pressure settles across the UK and nudges away Low pressure from the SE over the next few days removing the shower risk as it goes. Instead variations in the weather over the next week will be on a much more local scale with varying amounts of frost and fog jostling with otherwise sunny and bright days. Overall temperatures will be on the low side of average with daytime values entirely dependant on whether freezing fog patches form and become resistant to clearance through the day or not.

 

GFS then shows High pressure persisting across the UK for the majority of the run tonight with only small day to day movements of the position of the centre. Late in the run a temporary breakdown takes place with a period of rain at times in rather chilly conditions with the threat of something rather colder weather persisting with frost and fog at night.

 

UKMO shows High pressure over Southern Ireland with a moderate Westerly flow over Northern areas. Fog and frost would gradually become more restricted to Southern areas as cloud moves in from off the Atlantic across the North then slips slowly South. Temperatures would be close to average across the North but rather chillier in the South.

 

GEM tonight, like this morning shows High pressure over the South gradually slipping further South later in the run opening the door to the Atlantic wind and rain moving across the North and then areas further South as a cold front passes. Temperatures will recover to nearer the average at the onset of the more unsettled conditions.

 

NAVGEM shows High pressure just about holding control over the UK for the next week with the end of the run suggesting more cloud cover and perhaps a little rain as weak fronts cross SE down over the UK. Frost and fog would become rather less of a problem should this evolve and daytime temperatures as a result could approach the average.

 

ECM tonight shows High pressure either over or to the West of the UK with fine and settled weather but with overnight frost and fog patches to clear away at first each day which could prove problematical at times. The run ends with High pressure still out to the West of the UK and with a colder plunge over Europe the UK could be on the periphery of this maintaining temperatures below average but removing the fog risk with the extra wind flow.

The GFS Ensembles tonight show a sustained period of High pressure over or near the UK with light winds throughout and little in the way of rain shown by most members throughout. Temperatures remain close to average at the 850 level and somewhat below in stagnant surface air.

 

The Jet Stream remains at high latitudes for the foreseeable future forced North by the presence of High pressure over or near to the UK.

 

In Summary it's another set of High pressure based model output tonight. It is hard to see anything other than a sustained and prolonged period of quiet weather with light winds, frost and fog at night and some sunshine by day over the coming week to 10 days. As one would expect some cracks in the pattern do begin to turn up late in the run from various outputs but there looks unlikely to be any significant or noteworthy events to mark anything other than a partial breakdown.

 

http://www.norton-radstockweather.co.uk/Model-Analysis%282859336%29.htm

[tight isobar]

Nick Sussex..(fab statement) pv matchment with southern most Greenland (or not) is paramount..lots to watch for. Current output is imo most certain taking things on differencial alignment, to what we may have thought!!!!

[Snowman.]

Please not again I still haven't recovered from last time.

[Frosty.]

I love this teasing chart from the Ecm 12z op run, it shows that cold shots are never far away and it's a cold run with frost and fog, nothing mild, can't complain about that.

[Grimsby Snow Lover]

I love this teasing chart from the Ecm 12z op run, it shows that cold shots are never far away and it's a cold run with frost and fog, nothing mild, can't complain about that.

I agree Frosty, plus having looked through the GFS 12z 850 ensembles they too paint a fairly cool to cold prolonged spell. I would not use the term 'mild' to describe the weather over the next two weeks.

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/MT8_Manchester_ens.png