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phil nw.

Model Output Discussion 18th Nov.2013-12z onwards.

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OK a new thread ready for the 12z runs.

 

The 00z forecasted  anomalies continue to favour some blocking around or just north/north west of the UK after the Polar air has cleared south.

 

http://176.31.229.228/modeles/gens/naefs/run/naefsnh-0-0-168.png?12

http://www.meteociel.fr/modeles/ecmwf/runs/2013111800/EDH101-168.GIF?18-12

 

The actual placement of the main features still uncertain going forward which will decide what the surface conditions will be.The ECM op seemed more bullish on a sharper wave pattern inducing more cold so let's see what the 12z models show.

 

Usual requests please keep all comments confined to what the models are actually showing and respect other members posts,especially if they support their views.

 

Your hopes and dreams/disappointments/general chat etc are for the numerous other related threads,so please think before you post in this thread.

 

Thanks all.

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Interesting by Fergie there.

Come on 12z's give us something exciting and not downhearting.

Please also can some in here be slightly more optimistic rather than pessimistic. Usual caveats......

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Just thought it would be a good idea to copy Ian F's post from old thread.

 

Yup, to be clear (and allow more meaningful model discussion to continue!), the UKMO view is for good agreement on high to NW to then migrate E to Scandinavia, in turn allowing an initially NE flow to veer more SE. Perhaps something more developmental thereafter, but they emphasise timing uncertainty on return to temps "nearer average" (which by definition are declining anyway, so not 'mild'). There's no current suggestion of some full-blown swing to zonality (as many others on the forum have already indicated). But given the vagaries in NWP outcome even into this week, it's hardly surprising that Ops Centre barely mention latest 00z EC DET. Either way - and again as others here have stressed - I see nothing for any of the cold aficionados to wig-out about, albeit more likely a fog/frost outcome at least into the reliable(ish) timeframe. Whatever will happen will happen...!

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The Atlantic low we've been watching on the model runs has now become Subtropical Storm Melissa. I'm on my phone, can't post links properly, but you can see the forecast and track on the NHC website. It will be interesting to see how the models handle this with regard to what happens in the north Atlantic and beyond!

Edited by radiohead

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Track of Melissa below, can anyone explain based on current forecast track how that plays into potential HLB?

Posted Image

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Track of Melissa below, can anyone explain based on current forecast track how that plays into potential HLB?

Posted Image

more waa into greenland reinforcing the northern blocking!!maybe even a full on greenland high!!

GFS at 48 hours

Posted Image

a nice north northwesterly wind on that chart!!hopefully enough cold air for a bit of snow

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GFS 12z vs ECM 0z at 72 hours (ECM 12 hours behind)

 

Posted ImagePosted Image

Edited by Barry95

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well if ex tropical storm does track like that then that certain will help block that area.

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GFS 12z vs ECM 0z at 72 hours (ECM 12 hours behind)

Posted ImagePosted Image

looks very similar to the ecm.ecm could be leading the way on this one.

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I would have thought we wanted to see that storm push under any high into Europe to push up the high and give lower heights. If it goes to Greenland doesn't that scupper this surely!

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Track of Melissa below, can anyone explain based on current forecast track how that plays into potential HLB?

Posted Image

 

on that track none whatsoever-

that is not to say its arrival will not have any effect on what actual surface or indeed upper air pattern will be created if it does track as indicated.

All models are notorious at waorking out how these systems interplay once into the northern Atlantic

Edited by johnholmes

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Well at least GFS is consistent.

GFS/UKMO/ECM

 

 Posted ImagePosted Image

Posted Image

 

So far almost identical to its 06z run only with the pattern a touch further South or slightly less amplified if you prefer.

Edited by Mucka

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Well at least GFS is consistent.

GFS/UKMO/ECM

Posted ImagePosted Image

Posted Image

So far almost identical to its 06z run only with the pattern a touch further South.

I think we are seeing the backtrack towards the ecm solution slowly but surely.can steve murr back me up on this? Or am I wrong?

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I am quite intrigued by a section of the vortex in this chart that is sliding into Scandinavia. I have no idea what will happen, but I wonder if it will become more important for cold prospects in future output. And it seems to mean that the cold uppers are a little further west and a bit more substantial.

Posted Image

Edited by Joe Levy

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Seen enough of 12z.

 

Remember the GFS doesn't do a complete turn around its gradual and for this low to be nailed it needs to be within 3 day away.

 

Long time yet before this is sorted.

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well if ex tropical storm does track like that then that certain will help block that area.

In the last few runs, the models have become in better agreement on the cyclone curving back toward Greenland, while 2 days ago half of the models were forecasting the cyclone would continue its recurve toward Spain.

Posted Image

 

Though the hurricane models are still struggeling on the definite track (the angle of the recurve is far from set in stone), all models (except the LBAR) agree on a curve back toward Greenland, and therefore enhancing Warm Air Advection toward Greenland. My knowledge about that phenomenon is quite lacking, but it seems to me that the fact that this system came from the tropics (and containing a warm core), will imply a quite vigorous WAA event Greenland.

 

The GFS is actually forecasting the core to remain warm in its tour toward Greenland (though it will become much more shallow during its extratropical transition).

Posted Image

 

A note for caution is that the models haven't initialized Melissa as a subtropical cyclone yet in the 12z runs, and therefore, the forecast track (and the future when it nears greenland) could change quite strongly in the near future.

 

And finally, an analysis of how close FI is actually in this situation, with comparison of the GFS and ECWMF runs at T96H

 

EC:

Posted Image

 

GFS:

 

Posted Image

 

While posting this, the 12z run of the GFS came out. It appeared that it converged toward the ECWMF solution (00z run). Therefore, uncertanity seems to have decreased some, with both models now indicating the low pressure area to almost skirt Newfoundland on Friday.

 

Sources: 

http://moe.met.fsu.edu/cyclonephase/gfs/fcst/index.html

http://www.ral.ucar.edu/hurricanes/realtime/plots/northatlantic/2013/al982013/track_early/aal98_2013111812_track_early.png

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/topkarten/fsfaxsem.html

Edited by Vorticity0123

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12Z GFS seems to be "worse" than the 06Z run in terms of building heights into Greenland at T120, but we'll see what happens later in this run.

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"I think we are seeing the backtrack towards the ecm solution slowly but surely.can steve murr back me up on this? Or am I wrong?"

 

Well I'm not sure you want my opinion and Steve will have his own take but since you quoted my post I will give it. It ain't tracking toward the ECM this evening for me although it could be said it has moved slightly toward it today overall.

Then again ECM was nearly 12 hours ago, who knows what it will show this evening?

I think the biggest clue will be tonight's MetO which shouls be coming out soon.

 

 

Edit

Mods, what is going on with the quotes not working (Google Chrome Windows 7)

I think it is when I go back and edit the quotes disappear.

Edited by Mucka

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I am quite intrigued by a section of the vortex in this chart that is sliding into Scandinavia. I have no idea what will happen, but I wonder if it will become more important for cold prospects in future output. And it seems to mean that the cold uppers are a little further west and a bit more substantial.

Posted Image

 

Yes - it is catching my eye too...

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12Z GFS seems to be "worse" than the 06Z run in terms of building heights into Greenland at T120, but we'll see what happens later in this run.

Its increased the PV lobe that sits over Canada as it travels north more 'umff' is directed into the storm and sends it flying.

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"I think we are seeing the backtrack towards the ecm solution slowly but surely.can steve murr back me up on this? Or am I wrong?"Well I'm not sure you want my opinion and Steve will have his own take but since you quoted my post I will give it. It ain't tracking toward the ECM this evening for me although it could be said it has moved slightly toward it today overall.Then again ECM was nearly 12 hours ago, who knows what it will show this evening?I think the biggest clue will be tonight's MetO which shouls be coming out soon.EditMods, what is going on with the quotes not working (Google Chrome Windows 7)I think it is when I go back and edit the quotes disappear.

nice one mucka!!!hopefully ecm sticks to what it showed earlier.

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GFS sticking to its guns really ramping up the jet coming off the Eastern seaboard,little or zero chance of anyblocking at high latitudes if this model is correct for the forseeable.

The METO update is a bit of a setback after viewing the ECM this morning.

Odds IMO are now stacked against the ECM solutiuon and im reluctantly expecting a climb down this evening.

The strat thread is giving grounds for cautious optimism though so still a lot of uncertainty moving forwards.

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Very poor GFS TBH

 

Posted Image

 

In fact it sends so much energy over the block it will probably give us a raging Northerly in FI and a Greenland high at T384 Posted Image

Posted Image

Edited by Mucka

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Hmm 12z has flattened the upstream pattern and also powered up the vortex...

 

Posted Image

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