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Skullzrulerz

Cold Spell Next Week Discussion. (18 November) Onwards.

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Front clearing here now....brighter to the nw and low cloud clearing.... Can see showers forming in irish sea, on radar, and heading in this direction....

I was on walney island today seen some good anvils over the sea , also some warmish sun ,nice for time of year !..

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I might have some snow if this is right...

Posted Image

 

With GFS showing temps in the south west ranging from 6c to 9c I'd take that with a big pinch of salt

 

Posted ImagePosted Image

 

Paul Hudson summed up this week on twitter this morning

 

Stand-by this week for the most ridiculously over-hyped cold snap on record.

Edited by Summer Sun

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This is from james madden...

 

Snow & Cold Update + What Will Really Happen? & What Next?

 

The predicted period of cold and wintry weather is now upon us, and this evening will see wintry showers spreading southwards across some northern and western parts of the country, in particular, in parts of northern Ireland and Scotland. Some of these snow showers are also likely to be particularly heavy at times across higher ground, with some temporary accumulations of snow and further wintry showers in some low lying areas. There is also the additional risk of some further wintry showers developing in some southern and eastern parts of the country, as an area of rain clears these parts throughout this evening.

 

Tuesday will feel exceptionally cold across the whole of the country, with a continuation of wintry/snow showers in some northern and western parts of the country. Some wintry showers may also develop in certain parts to the east of the country at times. A number of these snow showers may also turn heavy for a short duration over various parts of Wales/North-West England throughout the early part of Tuesday.

 

Tuesday evening and into Wednesday will then see an area of rain spreading southwards through parts of the north to begin with. This pattern will bring some further heavy snow showers across higher ground in parts of Scotland, Northern England, and Northern Ireland. There will also be some additional and brief wintry showers developing at times to some lower levels of the country, as that area of rain spreads southwards. It will also become very windy across the country on Wednesday, especially in some parts of northern England and later in eastern England.

 

As we progress throughout Wednesday and into the early hours of Thursday morning, there will be the risk of some wintry showers developing across a large swathe of the country, from the far north to far south. The heaviest snow showers will be in parts of the far north/Scotland throughout Wednesday. However, there is also the additional risk of some temporary accumulations in some low lying northern and eastern parts of the country, in particular, in some parts of north-east England. However, some lower levels of north-west England, north-east England, Yorkshire, the Midlands, and even some parts of the south are likely to see some periods of settling snow for this part of the forecasting period in places, as temperatures dip to below the seasonal average. This will also lead to the development of some widespread icy conditions and lingering fog patches across the country for the remainder of this forecasting period.

 

The rest of this week will also remain cold with further wintry showers developing across the country at times, whilst the foreseeable will bring a continued risk of even colder air being dragged in across the whole of the country from the north, with the additional risk of some significant and widespread snow events.

 

The UK & IRE month ahead forecast for the November period (21st-30th November) stated:

 

 
This part of the forecasting period is likely to see a continuation of rather cold conditions for many parts of the country. This will bring the risk of further widespread and even harder frosts, especially in parts of the north. It will also be particularly foggy at times, and some of this fog may persist throughout the days. There is also the ever increasing risk of some major and widespread snow events for this part of the forecasting period, especially in some parts to the north and east of the country. These snow events are also not likely to be restricted to high ground, and some lower levels are also likely to see rain turning to snow, as colder air from the north sinks further south. Coupled with the cold conditions, some lasting and notable accumulations are likely in parts of the north and east, whilst some lower levels may see some temporary accumulations at times. Some parts of the south may also be at risk of snow/overnight snow for this period.
 
(when others were forecasting a mild November/Indian summer with the reduced risk of any frosts and no mention of snow for this period!)
 
A significant and widespread snowy period has been clearly defined within the long-range forecasts for in or around the 23rd - 30th November and the majority of the above forecasting elements for a cold and snowy November, since the issue of the autumn forecast in April 2013 (almost 8 months in advance of actual events).

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I might have some snow if this is right...

Posted Image

As SS mentions, don't hang on to those precip-type charts, they can be very misleading. Here is the 6KM resolution from the NMM

post-15177-0-40935200-1384798490_thumb.p

As you can see, they're quite different from each other.

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Got a good dusting of snow,more than expected covering trees with leaves on too 1.3c

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Sleet odd wet flake of snow..of the non-disruptional variety! Posted Image

 

And no school shuts? It's beggars belief! :D

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Apparently there's another 99 days worth to come? According to some sources!

There can't be many schools up the Nevis lol..

 

Nah its only a month now

 

We had a 2 month downgrade yesterday - http://www.express.co.uk/news/uk/443672/Arctic-blast-to-last-a-month-Warning-as-freezing-winds-bring-snow-and-ice-chaos

 

Posted Image

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It looks like a nice period of heavy snow in Scotland overnight, a good early start to the skiing season I should imagine?

post-15177-0-50974600-1384862557_thumb.p post-15177-0-73489500-1384862567_thumb.p post-15177-0-28520200-1384862580_thumb.p

The other area of interest is Weds into Thurs, as those winds begin to turn to the northeast, there could be a dusting of snow for a few lucky people, unlikely to be problematic itself but obviously a risk of it freezing afterwards. I know those charts shouldn't be taken at face value but it it does highlight the possibility. Posted Image

post-15177-0-24232500-1384863110_thumb.p post-15177-0-56241900-1384863138_thumb.p post-15177-0-81958900-1384863147_thumb.p

Edited by Mapantz

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We have snow here in Scarborough at the moment. Honestly thought we'd be the wrong side of marginal for any today so that's good!

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Delighted to report lying snow this morning .. 62 days earlier than last winter .. 3rd earliest in my life!

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Increasing Snow Risk into Central/SE UK tomorrow(wednesday) late aftn/eve. zone from Cheshire+Staffs to Sussex, higher ground: Warwick+Bucks, Oxford, Berkshire, Surrey, north/west London, and down to Gatwick area. North downs and possibly South Down hills, perhaps wider snow zone into London east, Beds+Herts. Very fine line and likely hill snow 200m+ also depending on ppn intensity. Risk of sleet perhaps wet snow low level in places, this more likely north and west of London. A light covering if the snow does happen(hills)

ESS

Edited by ElectricSnowStorm

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Delighted to report lying snow this morning .. 62 days earlier than last winter .. 3rd earliest in my life!

 

bloody hell, ive seen lying snow on numerous occasions in November.

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This is from james madden...

 

Snow & Cold Update + What Will Really Happen? & What Next?

 

The predicted period of cold and wintry weather is now upon us, and this evening will see wintry showers spreading southwards across some northern and western parts of the country, in particular, in parts of northern Ireland and Scotland. Some of these snow showers are also likely to be particularly heavy at times across higher ground, with some temporary accumulations of snow and further wintry showers in some low lying areas. There is also the additional risk of some further wintry showers developing in some southern and eastern parts of the country, as an area of rain clears these parts throughout this evening.

 

Tuesday will feel exceptionally cold across the whole of the country, with a continuation of wintry/snow showers in some northern and western parts of the country. Some wintry showers may also develop in certain parts to the east of the country at times. A number of these snow showers may also turn heavy for a short duration over various parts of Wales/North-West England throughout the early part of Tuesday.

 

Tuesday evening and into Wednesday will then see an area of rain spreading southwards through parts of the north to begin with. This pattern will bring some further heavy snow showers across higher ground in parts of Scotland, Northern England, and Northern Ireland. There will also be some additional and brief wintry showers developing at times to some lower levels of the country, as that area of rain spreads southwards. It will also become very windy across the country on Wednesday, especially in some parts of northern England and later in eastern England.

 

As we progress throughout Wednesday and into the early hours of Thursday morning, there will be the risk of some wintry showers developing across a large swathe of the country, from the far north to far south. The heaviest snow showers will be in parts of the far north/Scotland throughout Wednesday. However, there is also the additional risk of some temporary accumulations in some low lying northern and eastern parts of the country, in particular, in some parts of north-east England. However, some lower levels of north-west England, north-east England, Yorkshire, the Midlands, and even some parts of the south are likely to see some periods of settling snow for this part of the forecasting period in places, as temperatures dip to below the seasonal average. This will also lead to the development of some widespread icy conditions and lingering fog patches across the country for the remainder of this forecasting period.

 

The rest of this week will also remain cold with further wintry showers developing across the country at times, whilst the foreseeable will bring a continued risk of even colder air being dragged in across the whole of the country from the north, with the additional risk of some significant and widespread snow events.

 

The UK & IRE month ahead forecast for the November period (21st-30th November) stated:

 

 
This part of the forecasting period is likely to see a continuation of rather cold conditions for many parts of the country. This will bring the risk of further widespread and even harder frosts, especially in parts of the north. It will also be particularly foggy at times, and some of this fog may persist throughout the days. There is also the ever increasing risk of some major and widespread snow events for this part of the forecasting period, especially in some parts to the north and east of the country. These snow events are also not likely to be restricted to high ground, and some lower levels are also likely to see rain turning to snow, as colder air from the north sinks further south. Coupled with the cold conditions, some lasting and notable accumulations are likely in parts of the north and east, whilst some lower levels may see some temporary accumulations at times. Some parts of the south may also be at risk of snow/overnight snow for this period.
 
(when others were forecasting a mild November/Indian summer with the reduced risk of any frosts and no mention of snow for this period!)
 
A significant and widespread snowy period has been clearly defined within the long-range forecasts for in or around the 23rd - 30th November and the majority of the above forecasting elements for a cold and snowy November, since the issue of the autumn forecast in April 2013 (almost 8 months in advance of actual events).

 

 

 

Oh i so wish i had his crystal all telling balls!!!!!!

 

would be no point in having the met office or any of the forecasting systems !!!!

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Not much in here on tonights snow potential then?? could have snow into the SE later heading down from northern England where snow is likely this eve/tonight, and if heavy then some disruption most likely for the higher ground due to falling/lying snowfall, 200m+ for snow risk perhaps lowering elevation later for risk later as colder air sweeps down from north. Low level snow risk more likely later tonight then this eve.

Earlier today had very heavy rain and hail, sure heard thunder too. Had sleety shws this eve, certaintly feels much colder now!

Edited by ElectricSnowStorm

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heavy rain alternating with sleet here. Temps going the right way so if it continues there should be some snow soon.

Temp 2.7C dew-point 0.9C

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Not much in here on tonights snow potential then?? could have snow into the SE later heading down from northern England where snow is likely this eve/tonight, and if heavy then some disruption most likely for the higher ground due to falling/lying snowfall, 200m+ for snow risk perhaps lowering elevation later for risk later as colder air sweeps down from north. Low level snow risk more likely later tonight then this eve.Earlier today had very heavy rain and hail, sure heard thunder too. Had sleety shws this eve, certaintly feels much colder now!

just  looking  at  my rain alarm looks  like  some  very heavy rain or  sleet heading down from the  north

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Should we make a new thread about next weekend cold snap/spell by now or shall we wait a day or two?

Edited by pip22

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