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Skullzrulerz

Cold Spell Next Week Discussion. (18 November) Onwards.

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Hello Guys and Good afternoon to you all :)

 

There Will be a change next week.Making things nicely cold and Some snow (MAYBE)

 

Lets begin the Discussion Right here and right now.

 

Enjoy Ladies and Gentlemen....Posted Image

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Not really interested in snow or cold myself but it looks like it won't be quite as cold as the models were showing yesterday.

 

I have been checking the Model thread these past few days and there are definately a few slight downgrades.

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Not really interested in snow or cold myself but it looks like it won't be quite as cold as the models were showing yesterday.

 

I have been checking the Model thread these past few days and there are definately a few slight downgrades.

Yes some EVIL Downgrades today.But it could upgrade.Wait and see....

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Upgrades as far as i/m concerned, last nights models looked very wet for low levels in the south, now only Tuesday looks wet through the cheshire Gap, downgrade though for those above 300m asl

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The general trend last winter was that it was a huge BOOM around 5 days and gradually downgraded each day, until they massively upgraded again about 24-36 hours out.

 

Anecdotal evidence anyway.

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The general trend last winter was that it was a huge BOOM around 5 days and gradually downgraded each day, until they massively upgraded again about 24-36 hours out.

 

Anecdotal evidence anyway.

Will it happen this time?

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A few tweets from Chris Fawkes this evening

 

longevity of cold snap determined by trough extension & formation of cut off low, here's latest EC for Thursday http://twitpic.com/dle0bs

 

Latest Ecmwf has the cut off process further east which would bring UK temperatures up a bit more after Wednesday. Heavy snow for alps.

 

BBC weather outlook on the cold still talking of temps peaking at the lowest on Tuesday and Wednesday before recovering but probably staying below average for quite some time

 

http://www.bbc.co.uk/weather/features/24961087

Edited by Summer Sun
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Being rapidly downgraded at the moment. Looks more like a period of dull /cold grey rubbish from the east after the initial burst. Hopefully I'm wrong the air is dry enough to bring some sunshine along. Then it should be nice n crisp.

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Met office hae me down for rain on Tuesday for some odd reason unbeknown to me.

 

Looking at uppers it would easily suggest snow.

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Met office hae me down for rain on Tuesday for some odd reason unbeknown to me.

 

Looking at uppers it would easily suggest snow.

The symbol forecasts have a tendency to rarely show snow for some reason. The text forecast for your area mentions snow showers though.

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November 16th and the words 'upgrades' and 'downgrades' are being used already. That has to be a good thing!

 

Don't think anyone's expecting a repeat of 2010 but am I right in saying that all of us at lower levels would take a few wintry showers and frosty nights at this early stage? Even just for a day or two?

 

Interesting start to the season anyway.

Edited by Gord
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My location is forecast for sleet and light snow showers for Tuesday

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Met office hae me down for rain on Tuesday for some odd reason unbeknown to me.

 

Looking at uppers it would easily suggest snow.

 

Its sea surface temperatures which are still quite high after a hot summer and mild Autumn the uppers are not everything for snow.

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Well a cold spell coming up. Just a pity we can't hold onto the northerly flow a bit longer. All eyes on how that secondary low behaves. If that doesn't come off and for once we need it too it could make the cold spell a single day affair.

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November 16th and the words 'upgrades' and 'downgrades' are being used already. That has to be a good thing!

 

Don't think anyone's expecting a repeat of 2010 but am I right in saying that all of us at lower levels would take a few wintry showers and frosty nights at this early stage? Even just for a day or two?

 

Interesting start to the season anyway.

 

your elevation not that low!

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your elevation not that low!

 

Compared to parts of the Peak District it is!

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So far this afternoon only Tuesday will be the coldest day UK wide

 

Posted Image

 

Wednesday temps are back up to 5 or 6c for many with double figures possible for the far south west of England and Ireland

 

Posted Image

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Yes and 5C/6C is still below average for November and with heavy precipitation it will feel very raw indeed with temps dropping especially on high ground where a dusting can't be ruled out, snowfall and snow lying is not that common to low levels in November.

Edited by Nick L
No need for the personal snipes

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Posted Image

 

 

STonking UKMO run prolonging the cold all week.

 

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When looking at upper levels for indications of snow, perhaps the 850hpa theta-w is worth paying more attention to rather than 850hpa temp or 500-1000hpa thickness. A general rule of thumb for the UK is that an 850hpa theta-w of 2C or below can allow for snowfall down to penetrate down to all elevations (with a large number of caveats obviously).Based on the 12Z run of GFS, we are likely to see most favourable theta-w temps on Tuesday evening.post-17326-0-78879100-1384620761_thumb.g

However no significant precip is forecast for this period..maybe some flurries across Wales and the East Coast..

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Not bad, snow opportunities sporadically from Tuesday morning through until Thursday, just click and hold the slider and move it along,

 

http://www.metoffice.gov.uk/public/weather/forecast/city-of-london-greater-london#?tab=map&map=SignificantWeather&zoom=9&lon=-2.04&lat=53.55&fcTime=1385013600

 

Use arrow keys to move locations and zoom to get more detail locally.

Edited by feb1991blizzard

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