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South East & East Anglia Regional Weather Discussion 14/11/13


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Right folks of to bed, That rotten GFS Kills me...Posted Image, Jp will read your post's at 5 am, Hopefully the GFS sorts it's attitude out, Its such a spoilt child. The ECM always has to drag it screaming and kicking.Posted Image Posted Image

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Climbing on to roofs to measure snow, this reminds me of something funny I had to a few winters back!

 

After a night of heavy snow, my mum decided that she wanted the Christmas lights putting up, so my job was to get onto the flat 2 story roof and shift the snow to make it safe to work on, down the street all my neighbours were ploughing their drives clearing the paths, meanwhile I'm 30 foot in the air ploughing all the snow off of the rooftop! 

 

Had a few funny looks that evening Posted Image

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ecm london ensembles

 

Posted Image

 

temps again looking cold ecm main run still not a cold outlier

 

the mean keeping very low as well

 

Posted Image

wind nothing of note

 

Posted Image

rainfall

 

jump on the 20th

 

then mainly dry

 

jump on 26th is a big outlier

 

Posted ImagePosted Image

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Can I bank tonight's nae lol.

 

Has light snow probably from showers in my little corner from 6 am Tuesday till 6 am Wednesday lol. Then the rain from the warm sector in the low takes over.

 

I know it's very unlikely to happen

Edited by alexisj9
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Posted Image

 

gfs

 

fi 24th

 

gfs main run and control run both right at the warm end of the ensembles

 

note a lot of cold ones showing as well

 

tip

 

ignore gfs until the ensembles start making sense

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Posted Image

 

gfs

 

fi 24th

 

gfs main run and control run both right at the warm end of the ensembles

 

note a lot of cold ones showing as well

 

tip

 

ignore gfs until the ensembles start making sense

I think Melissa has scrambled poor GFS's brains.

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Guest bjaykent

Posted Image

 

gfs

 

fi 24th

 

gfs main run and control run both right at the warm end of the ensembles

 

note a lot of cold ones showing as well

 

tip

 

ignore gfs until the ensembles start making sense

Poor old GFS really can't find a way forward beyond 120 hours at the moment, its certainly strugglingPosted Image

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Guest bjaykent

somethings throwing it out

 

the ensembles are so different its basically just an ignore model for now

Posted Image

 

look at moscows ensembles

 

and we think ours are bad Posted ImagePosted Image

Hi Jp was just looking at those, all look just as bad from Dublin to Berlin to Warsaw ,20c spread yikes!

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somethings throwing it out

 

the ensembles are so different its basically just an ignore model for now

Posted Image

 

look at moscows ensembles

 

and we think ours are bad Posted ImagePosted Image

wow why are they so warm, I thought they are supposed to be cold by now. Anyway I still say it's Melissa it's having a problem with, I think other models will have some trouble too. I'm wondering what the 00z's will look like.

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Hi Jp was just looking at those, all look just as bad from Dublin to Berlin to Warsaw ,20c spread yikes!

 

hi alexis

 

the moscow runs are a tad warm

 

from the 25th ( if right) they drop down to very cold

 

i will run with ecm for now and ignore the early runs

 

12z for me everytime Posted Image

 

best bet as normal is to stick with 120-144 max

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Posted Image

 

its all good fun

 

see sea temps are cooler as the storm progresses north

 

thats why i feel it will die in the next few days

 

you are right though they do confuse the models

 

off to bed now

 

more fun and games tomorrow

 

goodnight all Posted Image

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Morning all up early off to our Peterborough office for an interview at 9am, but a breakfast meeting first in bar hill little chef which will be the big decision of the day, bacon bap or Olympic? Dark out, but looks damp, no frost. After interview off to Hatfield for yet another interview, oh the fun of running a company, but at least I don't have to justify my breakfast :-)

Forgot to thank Tom for running the snow cup for us southerners in gods half of the competition, come on the Thames streamer we believe in you.

Edited by Charltonkerry
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