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South East & East Anglia Regional Weather Discussion 14/11/13


Snowangel-MK

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Posted
  • Location: Redbourn,Herts AL3. 122M ASL
  • Weather Preferences: Hot summers, Storms and epic cold snowy winters
  • Location: Redbourn,Herts AL3. 122M ASL

Right folks of to bed, That rotten GFS Kills me...Posted Image, Jp will read your post's at 5 am, Hopefully the GFS sorts it's attitude out, Its such a spoilt child. The ECM always has to drag it screaming and kicking.Posted Image Posted Image

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Posted
  • Location: west croydon (near lombard)
  • Location: west croydon (near lombard)

friday

 

Posted Image

 

a cold north east flow

 

temps

 

Posted Image

 

around 5 degrees

 

tod might be colder

 

rainfall

 

Posted Image

 

some drizzly bits around but mainly dry

 

expect a hard frost friday night

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Posted
  • Location: west croydon (near lombard)
  • Location: west croydon (near lombard)

saturday

 

Posted Image

a strong north east wind

 

uppers

 

and details to be finalised later

 

ukmo raw

 

Posted Image

 

lets see

 

what shall i put in there Posted Image

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Posted
  • Location: St rads Dover
  • Weather Preferences: Snow, T Storms.
  • Location: St rads Dover

wow, not sure what would happen if something like that happened over here, especially in the south.  We can't even keep moving with just a few inches on the roads.

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Posted
  • Location: Benfleet, Essex
  • Weather Preferences: Snow events / Wind storms
  • Location: Benfleet, Essex

Climbing on to roofs to measure snow, this reminds me of something funny I had to a few winters back!

 

After a night of heavy snow, my mum decided that she wanted the Christmas lights putting up, so my job was to get onto the flat 2 story roof and shift the snow to make it safe to work on, down the street all my neighbours were ploughing their drives clearing the paths, meanwhile I'm 30 foot in the air ploughing all the snow off of the rooftop! 

 

Had a few funny looks that evening Posted Image

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Posted
  • Location: west croydon (near lombard)
  • Location: west croydon (near lombard)

ecm london ensembles

 

Posted Image

 

temps again looking cold ecm main run still not a cold outlier

 

the mean keeping very low as well

 

Posted Image

wind nothing of note

 

Posted Image

rainfall

 

jump on the 20th

 

then mainly dry

 

jump on 26th is a big outlier

 

Posted ImagePosted Image

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Posted
  • Location: St rads Dover
  • Weather Preferences: Snow, T Storms.
  • Location: St rads Dover

Can I bank tonight's nae lol.

 

Has light snow probably from showers in my little corner from 6 am Tuesday till 6 am Wednesday lol. Then the rain from the warm sector in the low takes over.

 

I know it's very unlikely to happen

Edited by alexisj9
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Posted
  • Location: west croydon (near lombard)
  • Location: west croydon (near lombard)

Posted Image

 

gfs

 

fi 24th

 

gfs main run and control run both right at the warm end of the ensembles

 

note a lot of cold ones showing as well

 

tip

 

ignore gfs until the ensembles start making sense

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Posted
  • Location: St rads Dover
  • Weather Preferences: Snow, T Storms.
  • Location: St rads Dover

Posted Image

 

gfs

 

fi 24th

 

gfs main run and control run both right at the warm end of the ensembles

 

note a lot of cold ones showing as well

 

tip

 

ignore gfs until the ensembles start making sense

I think Melissa has scrambled poor GFS's brains.

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Guest bjaykent

Posted Image

 

gfs

 

fi 24th

 

gfs main run and control run both right at the warm end of the ensembles

 

note a lot of cold ones showing as well

 

tip

 

ignore gfs until the ensembles start making sense

Poor old GFS really can't find a way forward beyond 120 hours at the moment, its certainly strugglingPosted Image

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Posted
  • Location: west croydon (near lombard)
  • Location: west croydon (near lombard)

somethings throwing it out

 

the ensembles are so different its basically just an ignore model for now


Posted Image

 

look at moscows ensembles

 

and we think ours are bad Posted ImagePosted Image

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Guest bjaykent

somethings throwing it out

 

the ensembles are so different its basically just an ignore model for now

Posted Image

 

look at moscows ensembles

 

and we think ours are bad Posted ImagePosted Image

Hi Jp was just looking at those, all look just as bad from Dublin to Berlin to Warsaw ,20c spread yikes!

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Posted
  • Location: Nymburk, Czech Republic and Staines, UK
  • Weather Preferences: Sunny and warm in summer, thunderstorms, snow, fog, frost, squall lines
  • Location: Nymburk, Czech Republic and Staines, UK

Thank you Tom and Chris for organising the snow cup...my first year in it, hope there are some exciting 'games' hehe:)

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Posted
  • Location: St rads Dover
  • Weather Preferences: Snow, T Storms.
  • Location: St rads Dover

somethings throwing it out

 

the ensembles are so different its basically just an ignore model for now

Posted Image

 

look at moscows ensembles

 

and we think ours are bad Posted ImagePosted Image

wow why are they so warm, I thought they are supposed to be cold by now. Anyway I still say it's Melissa it's having a problem with, I think other models will have some trouble too. I'm wondering what the 00z's will look like.

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Posted
  • Location: west croydon (near lombard)
  • Location: west croydon (near lombard)

Hi Jp was just looking at those, all look just as bad from Dublin to Berlin to Warsaw ,20c spread yikes!

 

hi alexis

 

the moscow runs are a tad warm

 

from the 25th ( if right) they drop down to very cold

 

i will run with ecm for now and ignore the early runs

 

12z for me everytime Posted Image

 

best bet as normal is to stick with 120-144 max

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Posted
  • Location: west croydon (near lombard)
  • Location: west croydon (near lombard)

Posted Image

 

 

Posted Image

 

 

 

 

http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/refresh/graphics_at4+shtml/204724.shtml?hwind120#contents

 

i will say i reckon this will die very soon

 

however the runs above are both from noaa Posted Image

Edited by john pike
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Posted
  • Location: St rads Dover
  • Weather Preferences: Snow, T Storms.
  • Location: St rads Dover

Posted Image

 

 

Posted Image

 

 

 

 

http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/refresh/graphics_at4+shtml/204724.shtml?hwind120#contents

 

i will say i reckon this will die very soon

 

however the runs above are both from noaa Posted Image

My point exactly, till she's resolved everything will be pairshaped in the models.

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Posted
  • Location: west croydon (near lombard)
  • Location: west croydon (near lombard)

Posted Image

 

its all good fun

 

see sea temps are cooler as the storm progresses north

 

thats why i feel it will die in the next few days

 

you are right though they do confuse the models

 

off to bed now

 

more fun and games tomorrow

 

goodnight all Posted Image

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Posted
  • Location: west croydon (near lombard)
  • Location: west croydon (near lombard)

CET:  (Nov 1-17)   7.2°C  (-0.8 degC)                     E&W Rain:  (Nov 1-17): 49.7mm  ( 83%)                     E&W Sun:  (Nov 1-17): 50.1hr  (115%)

 

 

http://www.climate-uk.com/

 

 

Posted Image

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Posted
  • Location: Dartford Kent
  • Location: Dartford Kent

Morning all up early off to our Peterborough office for an interview at 9am, but a breakfast meeting first in bar hill little chef which will be the big decision of the day, bacon bap or Olympic? Dark out, but looks damp, no frost. After interview off to Hatfield for yet another interview, oh the fun of running a company, but at least I don't have to justify my breakfast :-)

Forgot to thank Tom for running the snow cup for us southerners in gods half of the competition, come on the Thames streamer we believe in you.

Edited by Charltonkerry
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Posted
  • Location: Northwood. NW London. 68m asl
  • Location: Northwood. NW London. 68m asl

Posted Image

 

 

Posted Image

 

 

 

 

http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/refresh/graphics_at4+shtml/204724.shtml?hwind120#contents

 

i will say i reckon this will die very soon

 

however the runs above are both from noaa Posted Image

Thats one huge big slug out there in the Atlantic JP !

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Posted
  • Location: Headington,Oxfordshire
  • Weather Preferences: Snow
  • Location: Headington,Oxfordshire

Morning all! A rather chilly -0.3c currently with clear skies. Gonna be a lovely sunny day though!

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