Model Output Discussion 13/11/13 >

[Jonan92]

ECm heading to a vortex split

 

[The Northern Ramper]

t192 see's the high staying put

 

 

Becoming colder -8 uppers down to humberside

 

Flooding Europe with cold until we undercut and tap in to it.

[Snowy L]

i don't see how anything other than an undercut can occur from that chart.

 

Refer to +192

[SMU]

http://www.meteociel.fr/modeles/ecmwf/runs/2013111712/ECH1-192.GIF?17-0

 

Nearly nearly !!!!!!!!

 

expect the 216 to show the high tilting east at the top end swinging the winds more NE over the UK

 

S

[Barry12]

Cold

 

[Panayiotis]

JMA very similar to the ECM, which ends on a cold easterly!

I can see the ECM ending the same but later on, and possibly colder than the JMA. ECM at 192hrs:

[That ECM]

http://www.meteociel.fr/modeles/ecmwf/runs/2013111712/ECH1-144.GIF?17-0 Critically ECM sending the atlantic low under the high building heights north.. LOOK AT THE SPLIT FLOW - always a tell tale sign- teleconnects with the pacific ridge- UKMO wasnt sure but transitioned to the ECM at 12z GFS.- Possibly another fail coming up.

Just goes to show why viewing NH profile is so much more useful and gives a clear picture to why the cold is a loud to flood back in.But is it correct?

[Snowy L]

http://www.meteociel.fr/modeles/ecmwf/runs/2013111712/ECH1-192.GIF?17-0

 

Nearly nearly !!!!!!!!

 

expect the 216 to show the high tilting east at the top end swinging the winds more NE over the UK

 

S

 

Yep definitely a more positive swing from the ECM. ECM will always be the first to catch on to weak vortex events with GFS trailing behind in typical fashion with a 100-150 hour handicap. I expect further upgrades and we should see the undercut happening in the next few runs. That atlantic shortwave was a nice addition that almost got us the undercut in this run.

Edited November 17, 2013 by Snowy L

[cold snap]

Painfully slow this run from ECM with regards heights getting tucked up into Greenland with a potential split of the vortex down the line

Nice to see the vortex dropping down ,216 surely has to see mission accomplish

Ah mr murr beat me to it with previous post

Edited November 17, 2013 by cold snap

[radiohead]

Great potential on the 12Z ECM. Obviously we're into deep FI now with changes from the GFS as early as T96.

 

[Ali1977]

Is the ECM more or less reliable at the T168 range onwards than the GFS? Massive differences in outcomes tonight.

Edited November 17, 2013 by Ali1977

[Panayiotis]

Look at the cold flooding into Europe at 216hrs! Easterly should end this run...

Edited November 17, 2013 by Panayiotis

[Mucka]

Certainly nice to see ECM not only back up its 00z run but go a little further. Manana.

[The Northern Ramper]

Refer to +192

I'm confident it will go under.

[Paul]

Latest week ahead forecast from Jo Farrow - a wintry one on the way.

 

 

http://www.netweather.tv/index.cgi?action=news;storyid=5525;sess=

 

[cold snap]

ECM still not there at 216

Heights not fitting well into Greenland ,240 could still do it

[Snowy L]

 

Arctic high completely in control of the North pole, the only logical solution after today's stratospheric charts. ECM very much leading the way.

[cooling climate]

ECM t216 chart not bad but could have been a lot better.

Have to say though the northern hemisphere profile is so different

and much more amplified than the other two models and I have to

wonder is the ECM over doing this.

[Snowy L]

ECM t216 chart not bad but could have been a lot better.

Have to say though the northern hemisphere profile is so different

and much more amplified than the other two models and I have to

wonder is the ECM over doing this.

 

I'd say it's pretty representitive of what's going to happen over the high lattitudes. The things that will win it or lose it for us in the mid-lattitudes are shortwaves.

[Captain Shortwave]

ECM t216 chart not bad but could have been a lot better.

Have to say though the northern hemisphere profile is so different

and much more amplified than the other two models and I have to

wonder is the ECM over doing this.

My worry too, didn't we just have this situation for the coming week, only for the high to be corrected from the Iceland region to being close to the UK. I think our sanity will be well and truly tested this week 

[swfc]

The ecm 240 is a cracker all be it in deep fi 

[SMU]

http://www.meteociel.fr/modeles/ecmwf/runs/2013111712/ECH1-240.GIF?17-0

 

 

The first ECM boom chart of the winter & the first Nov 2010 run with the vertical alignment...

 

Note the BOM run last night that I took over the ECM 12z... this is why...

 

S

[I remember Atlantic 252]

Steve Murr to have a snowfest on that ECMWF FI, but for many away from Kent just looks cold and dry

[The PIT]

Can't complain about the ECM run a good one all the way.

[cooling climate]

ECM t240 chart is a cracker and post 240 would be better still with colder and colder air

being advected across the uk. Would definitely need to see some suport from the UKMO

in the morning to place any credence to the run.