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Posted
  • Location: NR LOURDES SW FRANCE
  • Location: NR LOURDES SW FRANCE

    So after days of model watching it all boils down to a breif cold snap then? Was under the impression we were set for a long spell of cold setting in. But looks like we have all been made fools of by the models once again. But i guess a few days of cold and frosts is better than nothing i suppose. seems to me we will be heading back to a westerly regime in the not too distant future. Which would tie in well with rjs forecast. Looks like madden will be wrong though. So i guess every cloud has a silver lining.Posted Image

     It depends if you trust output past 168hrs, as it is the models were wrong with the jetstream within T120hrs. In terms of brief, again a big question mark. It might still remain cold at the surface even if the 850s suggest otherwise, much depends on where exactly any high sets up, how much cloud there is etc.

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    So after days of model watching it all boils down to a breif cold snap then? Was under the impression we were set for a long spell of cold setting in. But looks like we have all been made fools of by the models once again. But i guess a few days of cold and frosts is better than nothing i suppose. seems to me we will be heading back to a westerly regime in the not too distant future. Which would tie in well with rjs forecast. Looks like madden will be wrong though. So i guess every cloud has a silver lining.Posted Image

     

    Let's face it is Madden ever right? lol

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    Posted
  • Location: Near Keele, North Staffs
  • Location: Near Keele, North Staffs

    Its smelling the coffee I reckon regrettably, I think GFS is more on the money than ECM here.  This will be a cold snap rather than a spell before business resumes to a westerly dominated flow.  The block ECM has, will it hold that long?.  One thing I'm pretty certain Madden has December well wrong.  I think RJS is more on the money there.

     

     

    BFTP

    Yes and would certainly tie in with the low pressure at Northern latitudes eventually winning the day. 06z continues on the same theme.

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    Posted
  • Location: portsmouth uk
  • Weather Preferences: extremes
  • Location: portsmouth uk

    and I do agree just having high pressure over us will keep things cool freezing fog frost wintry showers could pop up here and there not for the south or southwest but certainly eastern areas and futher north so yes wintry indeed.

     

    and longevity of any cold spell can really surprise a lot of people so ten day cold maybe a little longer is achievable as long as low pressure sticks around in Europe which is a little concerning.

     

    I disagree ian the latest gfs is really not that bad out to fi but I do hear what your saying certainly is in the balance.

    yeah I posted a chart im happy now stuff the downgrades.

    atleast I can show what im saying

    post-9143-0-49677500-1384685439_thumb.pn

    Edited by model rollercoaster
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    Posted
  • Location: Newbury, Berkshire. 107m ASL.
  • Weather Preferences: Summer:sunny, some Thunder,Winter:cold & snowy spells,Other:transitional
  • Location: Newbury, Berkshire. 107m ASL.

    So after days of model watching it all boils down to a breif cold snap then? Was under the impression we were set for a long spell of cold setting in. But looks like we have all been made fools of by the models once again. But i guess a few days of cold and frosts is better than nothing i suppose. seems to me we will be heading back to a westerly regime in the not too distant future. Which would tie in well with rjs forecast. Looks like madden will be wrong though. So i guess every cloud has a silver lining.Posted Image

     

    Hi terrier,

     

    The general consensus is the near-term "will it snow IMBY" question is yet to be answered, however after a few unsettled days, things look like drying up and HP taking over from the West as Summer Sun alluded to earlier, as copied below.

     

    "The general pattern now appears to be a steady rise in pressure from the west later in the week, so becoming drier and remaining chilly with a risk of frost and fog"

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    Posted
  • Location: Newbury, Berkshire. 107m ASL.
  • Weather Preferences: Summer:sunny, some Thunder,Winter:cold & snowy spells,Other:transitional
  • Location: Newbury, Berkshire. 107m ASL.

    I posted this in my local regional and the same can probably be said for most of England and Wales at least in the nearer term. Where we head later next week, to my mind the model outputs favour an incoming HP cell but even then it'll be far from mild, especially if there were to be settled snow in places.

     

    http://forum.netweather.tv/topic/78387-south-westcentral-southern-england-regional-weather-discussion-061113-0000z/?p=2836856

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    Posted
  • Location: West Sussex
  • Weather Preferences: Extreme cold & snow
  • Location: West Sussex

    The trend to full blown zonality continues with the GFS 06z after the cool / cold dry spell abates

     

    Posted Image

     

    Interesting to see if ECM starts to run with this soon.

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    Posted
  • Location: Reigate Hill
  • Weather Preferences: Anything
  • Location: Reigate Hill

    The trend to full blown zonality continues with the GFS 06z after the cool / cold dry spell abates

    Posted Image

    Interesting to see if ECM starts to run with this soon.

    The 06z is not zonal:

    post-14819-0-92521500-1384686319_thumb.p post-14819-0-08565300-1384686331_thumb.p

    There is no clear signal for zonality from the GFS yet, though the CFS has been trending a westerly return by 15-20 December.

    Edited by i'm dreaming of...
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    Posted
  • Location: Castle Black, the Wall, the North
  • Weather Preferences: Spanish Plumes, Blizzards, Severe Frosts :-)
  • Location: Castle Black, the Wall, the North

    You can call the Gfs 06z op run many things but mild is not one of them.Posted Image

    post-4783-0-06248700-1384686328_thumb.pn

    post-4783-0-27860600-1384686351_thumb.pn

    post-4783-0-17777000-1384686374_thumb.pn

    post-4783-0-79598100-1384686426_thumb.pn

    post-4783-0-25434300-1384686450_thumb.pn

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    Posted
  • Location: Ireland
  • Location: Ireland

    The trend to full blown zonality continues with the GFS 06z after the cool / cold dry spell abates

     

    Posted Image

     

    Interesting to see if ECM starts to run with this soon.

     

    I'm not sure why the ECM would start to "run with" a 320+ hour chart soon when the ECM only goes to 240 hours, and a 320+ hour 06Z GFS chart is about as likely to verify as a Madden forecast regardless of what it shows. As for "full blow zonality", this is what happens on that run following what you posted.

     

    Posted Image

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    Posted
  • Location: Castle Black, the Wall, the North
  • Weather Preferences: Spanish Plumes, Blizzards, Severe Frosts :-)
  • Location: Castle Black, the Wall, the North

    Wow after all this time and its like a gfs love fest in here...

    Are people still using it .... Wheres the headbang smiley....

    The ECM is now back on board where the ensembles were last night and I fully expect it to continue-

    I have to laugh at the posters on here that keep saying its flattening / toppling & the atlantic is getting in- they have been saying it would happen after day 1, day 2 , day 3 , day 4, day 5 & even day 6- now were back to the mid term gfs ensembles again.

    Some days its utter chaos on here.

    what about the ukmo? I thought you said last night that if the ukmo is not on board it's not happeningPosted Image

    Edited by Frosty.
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    Posted
  • Location: Dublin
  • Location: Dublin

    And today we turn from big fans of the UKMO model to big fans of the ECMWF model.

     

    ECMWF and the ensembles show good potential.

     

    Major change this morning is the intensity of the low to the north the UK near 72hrs being much deeper than

    originally progged.

     

    A very fluid situation, lots of chopping and changing to come i feel.

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    Posted
  • Location: Essex, Southend-On-Sea
  • Weather Preferences: Warm, bright summers and Cold, snowy winters
  • Location: Essex, Southend-On-Sea

    The trend to full blown zonality continues with the GFS 06z after the cool / cold dry spell abates

     

    Posted Image

     

    Interesting to see if ECM starts to run with this soon.

    That doesn't look zonal to me.

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    Posted
  • Location: Essex, Southend-On-Sea
  • Weather Preferences: Warm, bright summers and Cold, snowy winters
  • Location: Essex, Southend-On-Sea

    GFS 6z doesn't even end bad.

     

    Posted Image

    PV is still disrupted heights making it into the pole.

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    Posted
  • Location: East Ham, London
  • Location: East Ham, London

    It would be astonishing if we were not to have a spell of W'ly or SW'ly winds sometime between December 1st and February 28th. I can't recall a winter which hasn't had one (I suppose 62/63 might be the exception).

     

    Even the last few winters have had longer milder spells - last year it was mild from mid-December to mid-January. After the remarkable late November and December of 2010, January 2011 was to my recollection predominantly mild starting from a West based negative NAO.

     

    The emerging anticyclonic scenario is interesting as it offers possibilities for a continuation of cold, frosty and foggy conditions. GFS 06Z offers possibly the best scenario for this as the HP declines SE into Europe and then ridges back West keeping the south of the UK in particular in a continental flow.

     

    Another option which GFS 00Z offered was for the HP to become centred to the West of the British Isles and then decline south ushering in milder Atlantic air. ECM 00Z offered the option of the HP sitting right over the UK which again would keep things quiet but might lead to frost and fog.

     

    We've not had a lot of this type of anticyclonic weather in recent years though it can provide near ice days under inversion conditions (I remember December 1978 when there was a run of very cold days under similar conditions).

     

    The other point I would make is that high heights over Greenland aren't the be-all and end-all for those wanting cold (as distinct from snow). A well-placed block over Europe with the jet heading well to the north can deliver very cold if settled conditions in midwinter and of course a strong Eurasian HP taking on the Atlantic offers the "battleground" scenarios from which many parts of the UK have benefitted in terms of snow in the past.

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    Posted
  • Location: Castle Black, the Wall, the North
  • Weather Preferences: Spanish Plumes, Blizzards, Severe Frosts :-)
  • Location: Castle Black, the Wall, the North

     

     

    Remember, If the UKMO isn't on board its not going to happen.

    S

     

     

    I didn't join TWO calling myself Melanie to post the same GFS nonsence.....although Ian did.

    Here it isPosted Image

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    Posted
  • Location: Newbury, Berkshire. 107m ASL.
  • Weather Preferences: Summer:sunny, some Thunder,Winter:cold & snowy spells,Other:transitional
  • Location: Newbury, Berkshire. 107m ASL.

    That doesn't look zonal to me.

     

    I can't see it being zonal or Atlantic zonal I should say, for the rest of November. Yes, a bold statement at such a timescale but the GFS or any model output at such a range is to be taken with a GRITTER load of salt. The Atlantic is dead, end of. Posted Image

     

    Of course Purga or whoever it happens to be, has the right to post such charts (it is the model discussion forum) but people, especially the newbies should listen and learn, FI is but a very short distance away right now, anything beyond this is conjecture. One thing we won't be looking at are fronts coming up from the Southwest for many days ahead, whichever model output you subscribe to. Posted Image

    Edited by gottolovethisweather
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    Posted
  • Location: New Ash green 150M / 500 FT
  • Location: New Ash green 150M / 500 FT

    Ukmo frosty its ok pretty much the same as last night give or take its slight SE correction - the reason it doesnt look as good as yesterday on meteociel is the heights to our S & E are not quite as low as yesterday but essentially uts the same

    At144 the greenland trough has a slight positive tilt which is not so good-

    Its been a poor week for model consistency even the ECM has struggled so in these difficult times I would use the historic model bias to remind me of where things are likely to go as opposed to what they show.....

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    Posted
  • Location: Powys Mid Wales borders.
  • Location: Powys Mid Wales borders.

    The trend to full blown zonality continues with the GFS 06z after the cool / cold dry spell abates

     

    Posted Image

     

     

    That's full blown zonality,but on the cold side.

    http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/archive/ra/1990/Rrea00119900126.gif

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    Posted
  • Location: Castle Black, the Wall, the North
  • Weather Preferences: Spanish Plumes, Blizzards, Severe Frosts :-)
  • Location: Castle Black, the Wall, the North

    Ukmo frosty its ok pretty much the same as last night give or take its slight SE correction - the reason it doesnt look as good as yesterday on meteociel is the heights to our S & E are not quite as low as yesterday but essentially uts the same

    At144 the greenland trough has a slight positive tilt which is not so good-

    Its been a poor week for model consistency even the ECM has struggled so in these difficult times I would use the historic model bias to remind me of where things are likely to go as opposed to what they show.....

    I phone fail

    No worries steve, very good explanation of how things are currently looking.Posted Image

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    Posted
  • Location: Nuneaton,Warks. 128m asl
  • Weather Preferences: Snow then clear and frosty.
  • Location: Nuneaton,Warks. 128m asl

    A reminder to please keep to discussions around the models please everyone.

     

    Too many one liners are starting to creep in to the thread along with off topic comments.

     

    A couple of posts have been moved already to here

    http://forum.netweather.tv/topic/71590-the-winter-emotions-and-moaning-thread/

    that or the other model moans and ramps thread here

    http://forum.netweather.tv/topic/76235-model-banter-moans-and-ramps/

    are the places to post if you wish to exchange some general chat etc.

     

    Let's keep the thread informative re. the model runs-thanks all.

    Edited by phil nw.
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    Posted
  • Location: Horsham, West sussex, 52m asl
  • Location: Horsham, West sussex, 52m asl

    And that's the language I'm inviting people to be careful about. People come on here for guidance and if they see terms like 'warm sector' they may get thoroughly confused. It's a very non-empirical term so if you want to be scientific post the actual T850 upper air temp variations. However, just so we're crystal clear: there is no warm sector. It is just less bitterly cold. Allied to this, as John Holmes points out, the track of that low is nowhere near nailed down. 72 hours ago it didn't even exist on the models. Even if it did track to the extent that precipitation fell as rain not snow for some on Wednesday, what is expected of mid November? The devil will be in the detail but in the meantime, we're in for a very cold spell for  the time of year, both qualitatively and empirically. The CET will certainly take a hammering.

     

    Sleety: this often happens during a significant pattern change. I wouldn't be at all surprised to see us heading for major blocking from the north-east as the runs develop over the next week. Either way, we're coming out of zonality and the models are attempting to adjust.

     

    the voice of reason West.

     

    i think the fact that we are looking at brief but very wintry shot, (or  a 'cold snap' as some may dismiss it as) in november, from the set-up shown across all of the models, is an excellent position to be in at this stage.

     

    there was never any "prolonged, deep cold" (for the UK) forecast. it will be cold at a time of year when it should be but for an extended period.

    personally, i've seen nothing in the models to suggest a return to zonal. i've only seen repeated attempts at atlantic ridging. each time just a little bit nearer to the jackpot (i.e. greenland high) or at the very least, a scandi high.

    the cold is trying to attack from all directions. northerlies, easterlies, deep cold spilling into europe. its all there in the models to a greater or lesser degree and from what i've seen, the atlantic is losing the battle. its only a matter of time before winter arrives properly

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