Model Output Discussion 13/11/13 >

[Cecil Hogmanay Melchett]

I was just going to say im a tad disappointed with the gfs and ukmo 0zruns and along comes ecm,you'd have to say its close to something very nice at 144h and is heaps better than the other 2 at the same time.

[radiohead]

0Z ECM is fantastic at T168. This is where we want to see things trending towards.

 

 

[Cecil Hogmanay Melchett]

Dreadful runs so far ecm rubbish ukmo downgrading so far and gfs rubbish.As I been saying for days now I think it's a total collapse of the pattern which is heading slowly back to zonal westerly.

FGS man calm down.ECM is looking lovely with blocking over Iceland and Greenland and low pressure over southern Europe.

[swfc]

I'm hungover and feeling exceptionally sorry for myself.

Can someone tell me the latest picture I haven't checked the charts since Friday's Disappointment 

Thanks

gfs is pretty average but ukmo and ecm are better.nothing exceptional tho atm and certainly not worth sitting and watching if your steaming with a hangover chief!"" 

[swfc]

Suprising upgrade on ecm .Good 850s too but no doubt it will have gone come 7-00 pm today

[bluearmy]

I have news and I don't think it's great if you re looking for a big greeny block. I have been troubled for days by the fact that despite the spreads indicating blocking in se greeny in week 2, we fail to get any runs that build a proper sustained block there. doing the maths on the spreads, I now realise that the signature that would normally show a high height propensity against the mean is actually showing the opposite! The clustering must be low pressure!!! In that regard, the current week 2 trend towards mid lat block close to the UK and possibly over scandi/ to our north is very reasonable. Couple that with deep lows approaching se Greenland and the risk of the pattern being over run increases markedly from where I was sitting yesterday. However the euro trough should ensure we stay cool to cold under a continental or stagnant flow of some type.

The added caveat that if the pattern over th arctic is amenable, a feature like that could push some serious WAA if blocking manages to hold it. It then becomes almost self sustaining as WAA keeps the block in place. even more fascinating than I thought!,

EDIT: and now, having trawled through the gem ens and reviewing the gefs, I have to say that it's feasible that there could be a high spread on naefs in that area as its mean is less amplified than ECM. Actually, I didn't have a hangover when I got up but I have one now!!!

Edited November 17, 2013 by bluearmy

[snowangel32]

Yep can't help but feel that the models are going away from a cold setup now each run is more watered down version of the one before, I mean this week has been colder with some frosts and it looks the same as next week so no real change, I so hope we get some upgrades in the next runs.

[nick sussex]

Sadly the UKMO backtracks this morning, the shortwave further east and the big 3 agree on a more developed shortwave running south down the North Sea, this has a large warm sector so any snow looks limited to perhaps the backedge as it clears and more especially on higher ground.

After that the high ridges over the UK but at T144hrs more chaos is likely to ensue as the models take a different view of things. The ECM by far the best from a cold perspective but it's hard to have too much faith in any of the operational output at present. If I had to judge them on their first cold snap modelling of the season it would be fails across the board!

Edited November 17, 2013 by nick sussex

[IDO]

Looks like the models have finally nailed the LP feature from Iceland, and not a good track on Wednesday:

The UK in the warm sector as it slides south to our east.

No model consistency from then on as all the models go in different direction. eg T168:

All similar themes with the Atlantic locked out and some sort of MLB trying to move N, NW, NE.

Potential for further down the line but thats all at the moment; cool to cold in the medium term.

[shaky]

I have news and I don't think it's great if you re looking for a big greeny block. I have been troubled for days by the fact that despite the spreads indicating blocking in se greeny in week 2, we fail to get any runs that build a proper sustained block there. doing the maths on the spreads, I now realise that the signature that would normally show a high height propensity against the mean is actually showing the opposite! The clustering must be low pressure!!! In that regard, the current week 2 trend towards mid lat block close to the UK and possibly over scandi/ to our north is very reasonable. Couple that with deep lows approaching se Greenland and the risk of the pattern being over run increases markedly from where I was sitting yesterday. However the euro trough should ensure we stay cool to cold under a continental or stagnant flow of some type. The added caveat that if the pattern over th arctic is amenable, a feature like that could push some serious WAA if blocking manages to hold it. It then becomes almost self sustaining as WAA keeps the block in place. even more fascinating than I thought!,EDIT: and now, having trawled through the gem ens and reviewing the gefs, I have to say that it's feasible that there could be a high spread on naefs in that area as its mean is less amplified than ECM. Actually, I didn't have a hangover when I got up but I have one now!!!

what does that last paragraph mean for us bluearmy??sorry am a bit slow this morning only had 4 hour sleep.

[MR EXTREMES]

I have news and I don't think it's great if you re looking for a big greeny block. I have been troubled for days by the fact that despite the spreads indicating blocking in se greeny in week 2, we fail to get any runs that build a proper sustained block there. doing the maths on the spreads, I now realise that the signature that would normally show a high height propensity against the mean is actually showing the opposite! The clustering must be low pressure!!! In that regard, the current week 2 trend towards mid lat block close to the UK and possibly over scandi/ to our north is very reasonable. Couple that with deep lows approaching se Greenland and the risk of the pattern being over run increases markedly from where I was sitting yesterday. However the euro trough should ensure we stay cool to cold under a continental or stagnant flow of some type. The added caveat that if the pattern over th arctic is amenable, a feature like that could push some serious WAA if blocking manages to hold it. It then becomes almost self sustaining as WAA keeps the block in place. even more fascinating than I thought!,

I think u could well be right each and every day the lower pressure seems to be collapsing the whole pattern slowly but surely with strong vortex and strong jet profile not favouring heights in and around Greenland intact if we were to roll back through winters after 09/10 this has been the general theme,every winter since 09/10 has shown mega block with Greenland heights not one true Greenland high has dominated our winter since although we have had close calls but normally turning out west of Greenland.But it's rather frustrating that the models have since that winter consistently model blocking Around this area only to be wrong.Although we have low heights into Europe I just don't see a way forward its a mess to be honest and I see feel that with in the next 5 days the heights sliding away se into Europ. Allow for a soggy December although not mild average but it seems it's fail fail situation.I really don't see anything impressive yes cold Next week and considering the time of year it's pretty good but it's nothing that's a bonus for the start of winter pattern.

[West is Best]

The UK in the warm sector as it slides south to our east.Potential for further down the line but thats all at the moment; cool to cold in the medium term.

 

People who come on here expecting to be guided will be very confused by this sort of post. You say 'warm' but the Daily Express and, indeed, our own Netweather refers to an Arctic blast.

 

I know that some on here are only satisfied if there's an instantaneous blanket of 10 feet snow which will last until June 2014 but in the meantime the models are showing a very cold spell in the short to medium term with some snow potential in virtually all parts during the middle of next week. It will not 'feel' merely cool, and you can disregard all talk of 'warm' sectors. With upper T850 air temps ranging at 0C to -5C at best and a driving northerly wind Wednesday/Thursday is going to feel bitterly cold. It is only then that the models really diverge, with GFS operational currently showing a sinking high and ECM the opposite, but why would we throw toys out the pram on a timescale of past T168?

 

The models are good for lovers of cold, very much so. The devil will be in the detail but why not sit back and enjoy a rare November foray into proper wintry weather? These are superb model outputs for fans of cold weather.

Edited November 17, 2013 by West is Best

[Man With Beard]

In response to "I'm dreaming of" - actually, if you leave GFS out of the equation, I think a kind of pattern is there on your charts - the others all show higher pressure around Iceland stretching into the Atlantic and over towards Scandinavia - and a trough dropping through Scandi. What ever else happens, we remain on the cold side of the High.

[tinybill]

this  should  make the snow lovers happy for  Tue/Wednesday

[bluearmy]

West, he was referring to a warm sector in a shortwave. Nothing else. Shaky, it means we are fairly clueless which way we go through week 2 and beyond. We could end up zonal to our nw by the back end of nov or be in the middle of a sustained v cold spell ( and all options Inbetween!)

[Tim Bland]

Just goes to show how much of a joke the fax charts are...everyone jumped for joy when it backed the UKMO output last night. Now it Matches the latest UKMO run. When will people learn that 99.9% of the time the fax IS the UKMO output just in a different format. This week looks a bit disappointing now on the snow front unless your on very high ground. Wednesday looks awfull with cold rain for most.

Edited November 17, 2013 by Tim Bland

[Richie V]

this  should  make the snow lovers happy for  Tue/Wednesday

look at that ppn over biscay, exsact shape of Greenland, is that a purple iceland over Spanish border with france lol. Even the orientation is the same as greenland on the map

[Lincs Observation]

look at that ppn over biscay, exsact shape of Greenland, is that a purple iceland over Spanish border with france lol. Even the orientation is the same as greenland on the map

Exactly what i was thinking you beat me to it PMSL!!

 

LO

[Richie V]

Tinybill, pennys dropped, you have overlayed the ice and snow from an exstent chart of the nh and coloured it purple,,,,, my slow lolol

[Frosty.]

Excellent Ecm 00z with rapid reloads of cold from the north / ne......the initial arctic surge is almost here, then it's reinforced by another during midweek and then another next weekend separated by brief frosty lulls and then eventually the run ends cold and anticyclonic with widespread hard frosts. There would be a lot of wintry showers and icy patches in the week ahead and longer spells of rain, sleet and wet snow and occasionally strong winds generally from between nw'ly / n'ly / ne'ly....some parts of the uk are likely to have significant snow but the biggest threat of that is with some elevation..lots to look forward to.

[nick sussex]

Just goes to show how much of a joke the fax charts are...everyone jumped for joy when it backed the UKMO output last night. Now it Matches the latest UKMO run. When will people learn that 99.9% of the time the fax IS the UKMO output just in a different format. This week looks a bit disappointing now on the snow front unless your on very high ground. Wednesday looks awfull with cold rain for most.

Realistically the fax charts are best used at short range for detail, personally I find them of little use past 72hrs as they're just as liable to change as the general NWP. I agree regarding the coming week for the UK, nothing special in terms of wintry weather, perhaps some snow for higher elevations and a few wintry showers as the shortwave clears. Some frost and possibly fog and then a big question mark as to what happens past 144hrs.

[That ECM]

Just when you think you have learnt how to read the models, I read many posts and end up looking at the ipad like an inquisitive dog with its head going from side to side.

The output up to t 96 to my mind is good and in fairly good agreement. What happens after is still not agreed on. ECM after is lovely, UKMO is ok and GFS is not as good. SM has said time and time GFS has a habit of flattening the pattern and I would agree.

Our hobby of viewing output is about as interesting as it can get. Uncertainty makes it all the more interesting. It also helps for future learning. Which ever way it goes ie GFS or ECM we will be able to look at the reasons and learn from it.

[shedhead]

As expected UKMO is the model playing catch up this morning, with a more easterly track now being progged for Weds system. As a result there now pretty good agreement that a sizable warm sector (that's what it is WestIsBest) will slip south across the UK midweek, so after a cold day on Tuesday with wintry showers it's rain for many on Wednesday, with any snow largely confined to Scotland.  Thereafter there is again pretty good agreement that pressure will build from the north, keeping things very much on the cold side, with frost and fog becoming the main hazards...so all in all very acceptable considering the time of year and even more so considering how things looked at the start of Nov.

Edited November 17, 2013 by shedhead

[shotski]

I think at this stage the best we can hope for is a continuing mid Atlantic block or the high pressure

to sit over the Uk. The last thing we need is a scandi high that would keep that area above average

and pump mild air exactly where we don't want it this early in the season. Unfortunately I think a

Scandi high could be where we are heading.

 

Shotski

[garbagebags]

I don't put much faith in the fax's 99.9% of the time they are identical to the UKMO raw output and chop and change with every run. Btw A few Meto folks were tweeting earlier that they didn't buy the UKMO as it was more extreme than any other model and too far west with the front on weds

The fax charts are not identical to the UKMO runs. Senior forecasters take the UKMO chart along with any other data the feel is relevant to make the fax charts. They are the only "human" generated charts and are widely seen as "the best". 100's of marinas and thousands of sailors around the UK are sent the fax charts daily to use as reliable weather forecasting. People wouldnt risk their lives on the whim of the gfs or ecm.