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Model Output Discussion 13/11/13 >


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Posted
  • Location: sheffield
  • Weather Preferences: cold ,snow
  • Location: sheffield

Suspense rises as we await 96...

Awaits a comment from northern rab!!!!Posted Image Posted Image Anyway ecm wont confirm for certain either way if the high moves over the uk or build towards iceland.Imo a middle ground between gfs and the ukmo is probable.

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First post after years of following this forum.

The problem we have that not everyone is seeing is that the previous outlook by the models has looked great but now not so great. So point being-any of these good Synoptics need to happen because we are NOT guaranteed it again even later in winter.

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All things to all men?Posted Image 

 

I use the word energy in relation to what im referring to- mainly the strength of the jet stream-  Quite often when referring to a split flow the models find the distribution of 'energy' hard to guage- hence the discussion point, any changes in the distribution of jet energy will change the distribution of blocking highs-

 

However it can be applied to most forms of forecasting- CAPE for instance & so on- as long as people refer their 'audience' to the item their talking about im sure its fairly easy to understand- the word energy is understood by all!!!

 

 

http://www.meteociel.fr/modeles/ecmwf/runs/2013111512/ECH1-96.GIF?15-0

 

ECM 96 seems about right - a bit more 'energy' than expected in the northerm arm sees the flow aligned ENE over southern Greenland- as opposed to the slower NE projections yesterday..

 

Im expecting a GEM like outlook from the ECM tonight.

S

 

 

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Posted
  • Location: leicester
  • Location: leicester

Well northerly now virtually gone on the ECM as per the GFS.

yup thats that for now!!unbelievable we had good agreement right up until this morning and things have changed drastically within 12 hours.
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Posted
  • Location: Cardiff/Reading Uni
  • Weather Preferences: Snow, Sun, Heat, Cold,T/storms via Spanish plumes *rare*
  • Location: Cardiff/Reading Uni

For me the BOM is heading in the right direction too... with 'energy' going under the block and with a chunck of the PV moving into Russia/..

Posted Image

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Posted
  • Location: Redhill, Surrey
  • Weather Preferences: Southerly tracking LPs, heavy snow. Also 25c and calm
  • Location: Redhill, Surrey

I alluded to Dec 12 earlier, here we go. It ain't happening folks. Ecm will be poor. That is compared to Stella runs of yesterday, HLB wont happen. Models honing in on a much lesser event.

BFTP

Edited by BLAST FROM THE PAST
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Posted
  • Location: Drayton, Portsmouth
  • Location: Drayton, Portsmouth

This is going to be a good time to test out the 500Hpa anomaly charts. They have been adamant for a couple of days that there will be positive anomalies to our north (i.e. probably some sort of block) from T168 onwards. If they're right, then the GFS tonight has merely thrown out a variance rather than a new direction.

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Posted
  • Location: Beccles, Suffolk.
  • Weather Preferences: Thunder, snow, heat, sunshine...
  • Location: Beccles, Suffolk.

First post after years of following this forum.

The problem we have that not everyone is seeing is that the previous outlook by the models has looked great but now not so great. So point being-any of these good Synoptics need to happen because we are NOT guaranteed it again even later in winter.

Welcome aboard, ARNOTT...Please can you pop your location into your profile? Posted Image

Edited by A Boy Named Sue
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Posted
  • Location: Near Keele, North Staffs
  • Location: Near Keele, North Staffs

Well as the saying goes you can't polish a turd, let alone two, but unfortunately that's precisely what the 12 GFS and UKMO are....at least by comparison to recent runs.  It's seems to me that the inexorable shift towards a less cold set up for the middle of next week is now starting to gather pace, with little if any prospect of snow for 90% of us on tonights outputs so far, but perhaps ECM will be able to offer at least some hope in an hour or so. 

 

 

Yes, a very quick collapse in even the Northerly and I think we are just looking at HP ridging in.

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Posted
  • Location: Crayford/Baker Street By Day
  • Location: Crayford/Baker Street By Day

I alluded to Dec 12 earlier, here we go. It ain't happening folks. Ecm will be poor.BFTP

Bit fast bftp to be calling it that I think ATP
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Posted
  • Location: Near Keele, North Staffs
  • Location: Near Keele, North Staffs

 

Why ? How can the energy go South from that position ? Mid-latitude High - at best, possibly even worse by T168.

This is going to be a good time to test out the 500Hpa anomaly charts. They have been adamant for a couple of days that there will be positive anomalies to our north (i.e. probably some sort of block) from T168 onwards. If they're right, then the GFS tonight has merely thrown out a variance rather than a new direction.

 

These charts are not to be relied upon, many times over the last year the NWP has overtaken the trends being projected by the anomaly charts.

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Posted
  • Location: Exeter, Devon
  • Weather Preferences: Snow, thunderstorms
  • Location: Exeter, Devon

Posted Image

Posted Image

Posted Image

Posted Image

So synoptically, to my eye the ECM looks a lot better, but then we have the issue of uppers, which are not nearly as cold. However this is a detail that could and probably will change, like everything else!

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Posted
  • Location: Wellington, NZ, about 120m ASL.
  • Location: Wellington, NZ, about 120m ASL.

I think it's blatantly obvious what 'energy' means in relation to model output? I've always assumed it to be a low pressure system/shortwave/an offshoot of low heights feeding under a blocking system- usually fed by the jetstream etc etc? It may not always be used correctly by some posters but I think it's fairly obvious what is meant most of the time.....any misunderstanding is probably caused by undue pedantry by those fortunate enough to be meteorologically trained or have a meteorological background? If it's that much of an issue, use the technical thread.

 

No, it's not "blatantly obvious". The term is very ambiguous, that's the problem really. It can make it hard to follow explanations, or at least it's hard for me, and I don't think I'm entirely on my own. I don't think met training has anything to do with it since plenty of terminology is thrown around nicely already. Clear, unambiguous terminology just makes it way easier for the reader to suss what is being talking through.

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Posted
  • Location: portsmouth uk
  • Weather Preferences: extremes
  • Location: portsmouth uk

ecm t120 hope the high pressure gets its skates on not liking low pressure out in the alantic.

 

although shortwave in scandi area could save the entire run.

Edited by model rollercoaster
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For those saying it is too early for the south, a potent Northerly in late November 2005 gave heavy overnight snow showers.

 

I would agree though that this upcoming Northerly is not as potent as that one. However given 850HPa temps as low as -8c and thicknesses in the range 1285-1290 at times, some wintriness / a little snow is possible to fall, provided current synoptics actually occur, which admittedly is a big if, even is setting snow is less likely.

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Posted
  • Location: portsmouth uk
  • Weather Preferences: extremes
  • Location: portsmouth uk

total collapse of heights well well nightmare.

 

if carries on at this rate looks like a zonal set up down the line.

Edited by model rollercoaster
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Posted
  • Location: Manchester
  • Weather Preferences: Sunny and warm in the Summer, cold and snowy in the winter, simples!
  • Location: Manchester

Very different and much less enticing from yesterdays charts for our tiny little Island but looks to be lining up for a second bite of the cherry in FI.

 

Posted Image

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Posted
  • Location: Near Keele, North Staffs
  • Location: Near Keele, North Staffs

ECM also building the high over the UK at t144

 

Posted Image

Posted Image

 

Not too far off UKMO

 

Posted Image

Yes, and the jet had ridden well over the top, this isn't going to be pretty going on - except for you Gav ! 

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