Model Output Discussion 13/11/13 >

[joggs]

Im happy with the ukmo,has energy going under to join the low over france.Not good gfs from a coldie n we await the ecm AGAIN.At least we are seeing a big cool down of eur over the next 10 days or so,and with the pv to take a hike to siberia?!?!?!?,lol

[radiohead]

Do you think this is a good or a bad thing? I mean clearly we want the high to be propped up sufficiently if we are looking for any wintry prospects, but at the same time we don't want the high to topple. Would I be right in saying that there is a fine balance here?

 

It's hard to know without having a 168 frame. It's a more 'risky' looking evolution at best. We'll see how the ECM handles it!

[Smiler1709]

Hi all,

Been reading your forum for months, fascinating read and really enjoy reading everyone's views and opinions.

Looking for ward to the cooler weather coming next week and then we're have to see where the models are going to see what happens after.

People getting upset about model runs that are 5 days away need a chill pill. Whether we go zonal or in the freezer is anyone's guess. Model predictions change more than my baby's nappys so wait and see.

Hopefully ECM will upgrade tonight.

[Joe Levy]

It's hard to know without having a 168 frame. It's a more 'risky' looking evolution at best. We'll see how the ECM handles it!

 Yes that's a good point! Also I keep forgetting that many of the major developments are still 4-6 days away and in forecasting terms a lot can change in that time! Last winter was testament to that for us all...

[BlueHedgehog074]

Although it's not completely out at the moment (although by the time this post is written, it probably will be), I think the GFS 12Z is a great reminder about how precarious some of these cold and/or wintry spell setups can be. Even though it is only one run, I think it does go to show that even within a fairly close time-frame, changes can happen. And not always for the best - although that will depend on the weather you're after. Also, should the high flatten and ridge over the UK just like on this GFS run, some quite hard frosts could be possible (especially during periods of clearer skies). But next Tuesday and Wednesday, at least, still look possible still for some wintry weather in places, especially the further North you are.

 

The 8 to 14 day NOAA 500mb and heights anomaly chart seems keen for higher anomalies (higher than average heights) to be to the North of the UK with the wind direction likely from the East...

 

 

...Therefore, it could be quite possible that the GFS could have over-estimated the strength of those Lows/Shortwaves stopping the high going too far North. (Edit: though, as it happens, the GFS 12Z does migrate the high gradually further North-Eastwards eventually. I think it's probably clear, nevertheless, that future runs from various models will still be needed to see how they continue to evolve the pattern, and whether the Atlantic High Pressure cell can still ridge far enough North and sufficiently knock away that Polar Vortex to decrease the risk of the high flattening and/or toppling over the UK.

 

Just try not do this with your toys yet, though.

 

Edited November 15, 2013 by DiagonalRedLine

[Beaufort12]

I'm relatively new to model watching. However, why is so much faith put in to each run if it can flip so drastically in a six hour timeframe and often has in the past?

I've always struggled to understand this

[Mucka]

"But if they cannot read the charts correctly and post on every frame it just confuses things, for example the ukmo coming out now is described as good,bad and undecided."

 

Understood but this is a place for people to express their opinions on the MO as they see it and a lot of it comes down to individual interpretation. I guess terms such as good and bad are totally subjective and of little use but they are understandable. I try to be purely objective but I am a cold and snow lover, have been since I was a child lamppost gazing for hours on end and I get excited at cold snowy charts and disappointed when they are moderated.

 

Gibby reckons there is no downgrade and this was always going to be a brief affair - well that is fair in the sense the original output suggested that and I posted as much myself but gradually the output became more tantalising and yesterdays output was much more promising than today's so on that basis we have moved away from something more wintry than the typical toppler that has been modelled as more likely again today. If you compare today's GFS 12z with yesterdays I think it is a little disingenuous to suggest they are showing much the same thing or that today's output was always much more likely than yesterdays. This is the MO thread where we discuss the MO as well as our conclusions on its veracity.

 

PS

 

What the frig, the quotes aren't working for me.

Edited November 15, 2013 by Mucka

[Team Jo]

Ahoy!

 

There are some great places to discuss the following:

 

Model disaster/disco/it's the end of winter etc Here ----> http://forum.netweather.tv/topic/76235-model-banter-moans-and-ramps/

 

 

How to Read/Learn about Models Here -----> http://forum.netweather.tv/forum/5-the-netweather-guides/

 

 

Will it snow in my garden next week?  Here ------> http://forum.netweather.tv/forum/142-regional-discussions/

 

 

If your post in this thread is suited to one of the other threads, then here might not be the best place for it.

 

Ta Muchly!

[Harsh Climate]

I bet anyone £100 that that run is a mild outliar, it just reeks of it! 

 

 

This is the very reason I've distanced myself from commenting on each run as they come out, there is actually no way of knowing which run may be correct and which may be incorrect, its just pure guess work and speculation.

 

 

I'm just sitting back and glancing at the output on a daily basis, you kind of get a feeling which way it's going and through experience that usually serves you best.

 

 

My oppinion approaching the start of the winter is that things are looking good We are already being teased with northerlies/blocking and where only half way into November!! Yes we had that 1 in 50 year event a couple of novembers back but in the last 15 years model watching we would have been hard pressed seeing anything other than mild/zonal muck approaching christmas. 

 

 

So my advice is just sit back and enjoy the model roller coaster, whether the outcome is good or bad Sometimes the expectation and hope is actually better than what we end up getting!

Edited November 15, 2013 by Harsh Climate

[Cheshire Freeze]

I bet anyone £100 that that run is a mild outliar, it just reeks of it! 

 

 

Actually the ensemble mean is far far worse than yesterday if it's snow and cold you're after. Infact it's worse than the 6z suite- not an outlier by any stretch...

 

[Harsh Climate]

Actually the ensemble mean is far far worse than yesterday if it's snow and cold you're after. Infact it's worse than the 6z suite- not an outlier by any stretch...

 

 

 

Come on you wasn't actually expecting much low lying snow from this upcoming northerly was you??  

 

That was never going to be the case, there will be some hill snow and a little low lying snow towards the far north east of scotland but that's about it..

[Mucka]

The Op wasn't an outlier but it was comfortably one of the less cold  runs for the 19th, 20th

 

GFS 12z ensemble Central England.

 

 

http://www.meteociel.fr/cartes_obs/gens_display.php?ext=1&x=253&y=103

Edited November 15, 2013 by Mucka

[Snowmadsam]

These charts are awful. That's it winters over. I was only going to believe in the GFS anyway....

 

(Sarcasm)

 

Let's just keep our toys in the pram and wait to see what the ECM has to say. If your that desperate for some cold l assume you all have a freezer put you hand in there for a while and you can easily recreate a colder part of the world

 

Simple

[ITSY]

nonetheless the control run gives a snow event for much of england next weds. 2-5cms maybe, particularly for higher ground over central areas. 

[shaky]

Actually the ensemble mean is far far worse than yesterday if it's snow and cold you're after. Infact it's worse than the 6z suite- not an outlier by any stretch...

oh well we just have to stick to cold and frosty weather for now which is better than mild rainy windy muck!!

[Cheshire Freeze]

oh well we just have to stick to cold and frosty weather for now which is better than mild rainy windy muck!!

 

Oh yes, if we can't have cold and snowy then cold and frosty will have to do for now!

[Zakos]

very intersting prospects for coldies in the coming weeks it seems

 

 

The fun starts with a decent cold shot, bringing the first snow of the season to many, although IMO the snow will not produce significant accumulations away from higher ground

Thereafter, I feel there will be an easterly incursion. Not looking especially cold/snowy yet but this could easily change with time.

 

What happens after this is too far out to speculate with any real detail, however I feel there is great potential for a significant cold blast.

The above chart (GFS t384+) may seem hopeless for cold prospects, however we must look at the bigger picture.

 

 

 

The PV is very disturbed, with its core over Siberia. This is very good news for coldies.

 

This is being repeatedly forecast from both the GFS and ECM, and this leads me to believe the cold spell we are about to experience is merely a taster of what is to come as we enter winter proper...

Edited November 15, 2013 by Zakos

[Mucka]

GFS 12z ensemble 2m temps Central England

 

http://www.meteociel.fr/cartes_obs/gens_display.php?x=260&y=110&run=12&runpara=0&type=3&ext=1

 

The Op looks a little out on its own here (19th/20th)

 

And the pressure charts, the Op well above the mean here, although with some support from the control, so all in all I would wait for the ECM which will probably be more like the MetO.

 

http://www.meteociel.fr/cartes_obs/gens_display.php?x=259&y=106&run=12&runpara=0&type=1&ext=1

Edited November 15, 2013 by Mucka

[cheese]

 

 

Come on you wasn't actually expecting much low lying snow from this upcoming northerly was you??  

 

That was never going to be the case, there will be some hill snow and a little low lying snow towards the far north east of scotland but that's about it..

 

 

 

 

 

 

Actually, I was expecting a lot more than that - even the Met Office alluded to accumulations to lower ground, and not just in Scotland. Given what was showing on earlier runs, with precipitation coinciding with temps at the 850mb level of around -6C, then there was absolutely no reason why snow should not fall and accumulate, especially since maximum temperatures were projected to be around freezing, and even now are only suggested to rise to 1C for much of the country. In fact, the Met Office are still showing Leeds having light snow showers on Tuesday.

 

And, as ever, it's just one run - there is no reason why this run has to be the one that happens to get it right or is 'spot on'. People on here are far too quick to change their minds based on one solitary one from one model - it's quite frankly ridiculous and serves no purpose. I also think some people are too quick to write things off if they do not show the goods for their back yard (not you).

Edited November 15, 2013 by cheese

[MR EXTREMES]

add the gem to the ukmo I think its a complete collapse of the pattern I think in all honesty I think there has been a general trend showing this starting with the ukmo.

[Joe Levy]

http://www.meteociel.fr/cartes_obs/gens_display.php?ext=1&x=186&y=177

 

These are the ensembles for Exeter. The scatter of the ens is quite substantial during the period of time when cold weather is most likely. Some only dip to about -1/-2 while others dip as low as -8/-9 which makes a huge different in the kind of weather we will get, especially when there is forecast to be precipitation about. I suspect that many areas of the North are fairly certain to see something wintry, the area of contention though is at what elevation and how far south will the effects be noticed. The time is drawing closer and if anything I am less clear on what I think than before!

[weatherguy]

add the gem to the ukmo I think its a complete collapse of the pattern I think in all honesty I think there has been a general trend showing this starting with the ukmo.

 

What's wrong with the UKMO?  Shows energy undercutting the block to my eye.

[Snowman.]

add the gem to the ukmo I think its a complete collapse of the pattern I think in all honesty I think there has been a general trend showing this starting with the ukmo.

 

[MR EXTREMES]

weather guy is that before height collapse though!

if the models don't show enough low heights to the south it could easy recede south southeast allowing us to be on the wrong side of the cold well cooler air.

 

ok so the gem is a nicer run so far.

 

well need a break from the lower pressure to the north a gap to allow heights a little futher north yesterday most models were suggesting steve famous sausage heights along from Iceland to scandi.

Edited November 15, 2013 by model rollercoaster

[Snowman.]

Nice WAA here.