Model Output Discussion 13/11/13 >

[Snowfan50]

This is usually my fear with the high getting to far east and the coldest air going into germany and france.

[nick sussex]

The GFS salvages the situation with low heights hanging on for dear life over the northern Med so it will still be cold at the surface for the UK but its the rate that the models have flattened the pattern beforehand that is concerning.

 

We certainly need to see a backtrack in the later outputs, this was far too close for comfort!

[swfc]

Well at 180 hrs the high is sunk,full stop.It should move ese and maybe we may pull in a reload"in fi again".Staggering the diff in two runs in such a short space of time and on that basis very suspect imo

[Snowman.]

 

Look at that thing in the Atlantic started off as a shortwave now its a full scale storm.

 

Energy is just kept south of Greenland instead of falling down or riding over.

 

I honestly have no idea how this run has changed everything.

[Frosty.]

This is just 1 of 22 other perturbations which has more or less chance of verifying and at this range looking into an unreliable timeframe, the chances of this run being kingpin is slim to zero, let's wait for the higher quality Ecm... :-)

[legritter]

I just think at the moment GFS is trying to get to grips with something which is a bit out of sorts in our area ,perhaps later frames may show what some of us are looking for .tonights ECM i feel far more  important and UK MET as well .going by other data and met office it does in my opinion look like high pressure will finish up to our north or n/west .in this type of set up i would expect wobbles but we all know how things can change so keep prams tidy and straws at the ready ,but enjoy the ride .

[shaky]

Boy do we need the ukmo to be good now!!huge pressure on it now!!this is too nailbiting!!

[Panayiotis]

Boy do we need the ukmo to be good now!!huge pressure on it now!!this is too nailbiting!!

pardon the pun!

Are we going for another cold attempt with the lows going under? High pressure also building in the Atlantic..

Edited November 15, 2013 by Panayiotis

[Snowman.]

Also black spots return to the PV

 

 

 

Lets see what the ensembles believe of this as I honestly believe it has gone wacko.

[Cecil Hogmanay Melchett]

I honestly don't understand why people are slating this run?

Its COLD COLD and more cold.

What do peeps expect in mid November?????

[Mucka]

Don't reach for the razorblades just yet snow lovers.

A quick sneak peak at UKMO out to T72 and it is at least better than GFS with everything a little further West and slightly more amplified.

 

Edited November 15, 2013 by Mucka

[shaky]

I was just about to say the same thing mucka!!the ukmo looks better at t72

[Snowman.]

 

 

Andd it gone in reverse all energy gets dropped pressure rises north.

 

Sensing a fantastic 384 chart.

[swfc]

Look at gfs from 240 hours onwards   pv goes into siberia,massive block over greeland and huge pressure drop to the south!!hahaha 

[Snowyowl9]

I honestly don't understand why people are slating this run?

Its COLD COLD and more cold.

What do peeps expect in mid November?????

Looks cold.

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rtavn12617.png

[MR EXTREMES]

to be fair there is a massive difference between 6 hour run but then the ukmo yesterday and the day before was almost identical to the gfs now and I really believe the ukmo model is the best model out of the lot even though it breaks my heart lol.

 

but just goes to show fi must be taken with a pinch of salt I liked the charts I see yesterday but it all seemed to far fetched and very dramatic in there evolution!

don't get me wrong cold frosty is fine but them low heights into Italy really are not going to finish the job for the cold crew with deeper depressions to our north just completely ruining longterm prospects and look at the downgrade of the cold for next week its a massive downgrade and its certain the ukmo will feature the same.

 

ukmo looks the same as yesterday even slightly worse its two nil to Prozac moment.

Edited November 15, 2013 by model rollercoaster

[Mucka]

Look at gfs from 240 hours onwards   pv goes into siberia,massive block over greeland and huge pressure drop to the south!!hahaha 

 

Wasn't that the 06z run?

[Summer Sun]

GFS is certainly bringing in the less cold uppers quicker this afternoon more especially for Scotland and Ireland

 

 

Longer term there is nothing majorly cold

 

 

All over to UKMO and more so ECM now

[joggs]

Look there will always be upgrades/downgrades but this time last wk we wouldve screamed for this.It still sets us up for an intruiging few wks and maybe wint.er,the pv looks like struggling against background signals so enjoy it for what it is!

[Panayiotis]

Meanwhile the UKMO keeps the vertical component to the W of Greenland steeper than the GFS allowing heights to reach further north.. 

Edited November 15, 2013 by Panayiotis

[stewfox]

 

 

Andd it gone in reverse all energy gets dropped pressure rises north.

 

Sensing a fantastic 384 chart.

 

Given the changes going on between  T72 to T144 what’s the chance that model at T264  will verify ?

[shaky]

Any comments on the ukmo 96 hour chart??not sure what to make of it personally.

[Summer Sun]

UKMO seems to have the high slightly closer this afternoon at t96

 

 

GFS at t96 to compare the 2

 

Edited November 15, 2013 by Summer Sun

[Captain Shortwave]

Any comments on the ukmo 96 hour chart??not sure what to make of it personally.

Better than the GFS 

Not sure where we are going here, the high looks a little better and less likely to be one of those stratus fests

It would certainly be cold and there is a shortwave riding over the top which could push more cold air in Europe though it looks settled apart from some wintry showers along windward coasts.

Edited November 15, 2013 by Captain shortwave

[Cecil Hogmanay Melchett]

UKMO!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!    

LOOK at the 120hr chart!!