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Model Output Discussion 13/11/13 >

chionomaniac

By chionomaniac
in Forecast Model Discussion

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shaky Veteran

shaky

Posted
  • Location: leicester
  • Location: leicester
Posted

GFS is picking up a hell of a lot of instability in the flow so as i have been saying some places up north and west could get pounded next week,and it gives credence to the metoffice update taking of potentially 'significant accumulations' and not exclusively to hig ground.Posted Image Posted Image

totally agree with you!!the pattern might be slightly further east but the 850s are colder at 120 hours than they were on the 00z!!more chance of precipitation being snow.
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radiohead Experienced

radiohead

Posted
  • Location: Ireland
  • Location: Ireland
Posted

For me this is a disappointing run. It is a continuation of the downgrades we have seen today of the cold and snow prospects with the pattern getting ever flatter and the cold slowly being shunted East but that's just my take.

 

The high has been flatter and further east each time on the last too runs down. A definite trend in the "wrong" direction that feels a little familiar I have to say...

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The Northern Ramper Accomplished

The Northern Ramper

Posted
  • Location: Newhey, Lancashire ( 165m a/s/l )
  • Weather Preferences: Snow
  • Location: Newhey, Lancashire ( 165m a/s/l )
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Posted

I wish people would wait until the run was out instead of declaring each frame as an upgrade or downgrade, newbies won't have a clue what is going on, especially as the comments are generally by people who don't anyway.

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swfc Veteran

swfc

Posted
  • Location: sheffield
  • Weather Preferences: cold ,snow
  • Location: sheffield
Posted (edited)

All but over at 132 hrs on this run!!massive problems here just getting any kind of pattern regarding the position of this high.mighnt not even manage a mlb at this ratePosted Image Posted ImageThe spell between 90 hrs and 108 seems the point it goes wrong.As someone just said it could be a wild run but massive diff so early on imo

Edited by swfc
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Team Jo Accomplished

Team Jo

Posted
  • Location: Hilversum, Netherlands
  • Weather Preferences: Hot Sun, Deep Snow, Convective Goodness, Anvil Crawlers
  • Location: Hilversum, Netherlands
Posted

Hello! If you're going to post a one line comment, it's super useful if you can either post or refer to the chart you are commenting on.

 

Thanking you!

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Gaz1985 Community Regular

Gaz1985

Posted
  • Location: Droylsden, Manchester, 94 metres/308 feet ASL
  • Weather Preferences: Dry/mild/warm/sunny/high pressure/no snow/no rain
  • Location: Droylsden, Manchester, 94 metres/308 feet ASL
Posted (edited)

GFS brings in a hefty North westerly tuesday with heavy snow showers pouring in off the Irish sea!!Posted Image Posted Image

 

Tuesday looking more like sleet in the morning and then rain later in the day compared to yesterday, which was showing big snow flakes all day. I think there's been a slight downgrade for our part of Manchester. As ever things might change but we are getting closer to Tuesday.

 

Posted Image

 

Posted Image

Edited by Gaz1985
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Richie V Enthusiast

Richie V

Posted
  • Location: Darton, Barnsley south yorkshire, 102 M ASL
  • Location: Darton, Barnsley south yorkshire, 102 M ASL
Posted

Don't fret folks, 18z will probily produce something like "That ECM" did last year.

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Mucka Maestro

Mucka

Posted
  • Location: Manchester
  • Weather Preferences: Sunny and warm in the Summer, cold and snowy in the winter, simples!
  • Location: Manchester
Posted

totally agree with you!!the pattern might be slightly further east but the 850s are colder at 120 hours than they were on the 00z!!more chance of precipitation being snow.

 

Really?

 

Yesterday we were looking at a good chance of snow and accumulations to low ground NW England, central areas and perhaps even the SW. On today's charts ythat seems unlikely. This is a poor run in the context of what we have seen modelled previously.

 

What a difference a day makes.

 

Yesterday.

 

Posted ImagePosted Image

 

Today

 

Posted ImagePosted Image

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Snowy L Maestro

Snowy L

Posted
  • Location: Burton-on-Trent (90m), Larnaka most Augusts
  • Location: Burton-on-Trent (90m), Larnaka most Augusts
Posted (edited)

GFS gone shortwave crazy again, it's sending way too much energy over the top of the high. That high pressure is looking very weak, I hope this is just a poor run from the operational and we see it changed at 18z.

 

One alternative is that we could see a Greenland high earlier than expected of course...

Edited by Snowy L
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Barry12 Seasoned

Barry12

Posted
  • Location: Batley, West Yorkshire
  • Weather Preferences: Heat and Snow
  • Location: Batley, West Yorkshire
Posted (edited)

GFS should be put in the bin, ecm will be better.

 

Posted Image

 

 

Posted Image

Edited by Barry95
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nick sussex Maestro

nick sussex

Posted
  • Location: Eastbourne and Larnaca,Cyprus .
  • Location: Eastbourne and Larnaca,Cyprus .
Posted

Not the best of starts to the evenings output with the GFS much flatter and more energy spilling over the top, only that cut back in the jet towards the UK saves the NW helpline from being inundated as it brings in some colder uppers but even this looks on dodgy ground given the rate of de-amplification we've seen in 24hrs.

 

The shaky foundations lead to no cut off high and sadly without that its downhill, quite unusual to see the models make such a mess of the upstream amplification within T120hrs.

 

We'll have to see what the ECM/UKMO make of this but for those hoping for an extended colder spell this won't happen without the cut off high near Iceland, without any energy undercutting this then its got nowhere to go but sink.

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terrier Seasoned

terrier

Posted
  • Location: west yorkshire
  • Weather Preferences: extreme weather
  • Location: west yorkshire
Posted

Think the gfs has gone off on one of its usual havent got a clue runs to be honest. Think we can put this run in the bin. Just doesnt look right what so ever in my opnion its gone mental with its shortwaves again bin it!!!!

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ITSY Seasoned

ITSY

Posted
  • Location: Hampstead / Cambridge
  • Location: Hampstead / Cambridge
Posted

plenty of time in the run to see how it develops, but for the short term it certainly is more of a sinker than what we have become accostumed to in recent outputs

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MR EXTREMES Experienced

MR EXTREMES

Posted
  • Location: portsmouth uk
  • Weather Preferences: extremes
  • Location: portsmouth uk
Posted

yep was to be expected if it looks to good to be true then it most likely is and that's what happens when you get gifted with stunning charts so cold snap is on and cold spell is of as you can clearly see by the gfs t144 high is over us and futher south no ridge to the ne or nw.

 

low heights over into Europe poor its a Prozac moment and that's why I don't buy into the evolution of Greenland block or scandi now simple cold snap then dry settled with frost.

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Panayiotis Seasoned

Panayiotis

Posted
  • Location: Cardiff/Reading Uni
  • Weather Preferences: Snow, Sun, Heat, Cold,T/storms via Spanish plumes *rare*
  • Location: Cardiff/Reading Uni
Posted (edited)

Bad news: Shortwave to the SE of Greenland

Good news: Trough over Spain

Posted Image

That shortwave is preventing the high from going up (low to the west of it is trying its best to get it to Greenland!)  Hopefully though that trough over Spain can help us....

Edited by Panayiotis
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Barry12 Seasoned

Barry12

Posted
  • Location: Batley, West Yorkshire
  • Weather Preferences: Heat and Snow
  • Location: Batley, West Yorkshire
Posted

yep was to be expected if it looks to good to be true then it most likely is and that's what happens when you get gifted with stunning charts so cold snap is on and cold spell is of as you can clearly see by the gfs t144 high is over us and futher south no ridge to the ne or nw.

 

low heights over into Europe poor its a Prozac moment and that's why I don't buy into the evolution of Greenland block or scandi now simple cold snap then dry settled with frost.

 

Based on one run on one model? If ECM still shows a cut off It will be back on then?

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Mucka Maestro

Mucka

Posted
  • Location: Manchester
  • Weather Preferences: Sunny and warm in the Summer, cold and snowy in the winter, simples!
  • Location: Manchester
Posted (edited)

"I wish people would wait until the run was out instead of declaring each frame as an upgrade or downgrade, newbies won't have a clue what is going on, especially as the comments are generally by people who don't anyway."

 

As long as people are commenting on the output that is out and not commenting on possible future output I see no problem with it. 

We don't have to wait for a 240 chart to know that the run is downgrade out to 144 do we?

 

I suppose a UK high wouldn't be the end of the world. Frost and crisp sunshine hopefully. My only problem with a UK high is that they tend to outstay their welcome and I soon long for a bit more variety and the chance of a pattern that could lead to snow.

Edited by Mucka
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Ian Brown Enthusiast

Ian Brown

Posted
  • Location: Near Keele, North Staffs
  • Location: Near Keele, North Staffs
Posted

GFS is picking up a hell of a lot of instability in the flow so as i have been saying some places up north and west could get pounded next week,and it gives credence to the metoffice update taking of potentially 'significant accumulations' and not exclusively to hig ground.Posted Image Posted Image

 

Not on this GFS run, the PPN would be rain for most then only a brief window of colder uppers before less cold air moves back in.

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Snowman. Accomplished

Snowman.

Posted
  • Location: Essex, Southend-On-Sea
  • Weather Preferences: Warm, bright summers and Cold, snowy winters
  • Location: Essex, Southend-On-Sea
Posted

GFS sends energy riding over the top instead of downward, low res will be either be one extreme or the other, full steam ahead PV or some strong heights north.

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MR EXTREMES Experienced

MR EXTREMES

Posted
  • Location: portsmouth uk
  • Weather Preferences: extremes
  • Location: portsmouth uk
Posted (edited)

at t168 looks likely the high pressure stuck over us nowhere to go December 2011 round 2.

pv has shown its a force to be reckoned with still at least theres no above average temps and a lot did say mid alantic heights and not northern blocking.

 

but then again could be a wobble and I did say the ukmo model could well be right so I expect the ukmo to back the gfs and the ecm has a nasty habit of over doing heights.

 

the difference between the 6z and 12z gfs though are massive were the hell did all this energy suddenly come from.

Edited by model rollercoaster
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