Model Output Discussion 13/11/13 >

[Cloud 10]

New fax chart for Tuesday.

 

http://www.weathercharts.net/noaa_ukmo_prognosis/PPVO89.gif?31415

 

 

Should be some impressive convection around next week,especially around

the coasts with SST's still high.

 

[Costa Del Fal]

Given the FAX charts etc, I wonder if the famous Pembrokeshire Dangler can set up and deliver some wintry showers down here in South West Cornwall? Seems a possibility given the troughs embedded in the flow and the Northerly direction for a time!

Edited November 14, 2013 by Blizzards

[Mark Neal.]

Given the FAX charts etc, I wonder if the famous Pembrokeshire Dangler can set up and deliver some wintry showers down here in South West Cornwall? Seems a possibility given the troughs embedded in the flow and the Northerly direction for a time!

Plenty of troughs on that fax chart! Looks like the 528 dam mine clears well into the channel. So certainly wintry showers for areas near coastline. Edited November 14, 2013 by Mark N

[MR EXTREMES]

New fax chart for Tuesday.http://www.weathercharts.net/noaa_ukmo_prognosis/PPVO89.gif?31415Should be some impressive convection around next week,especially aroundthe coasts with SST's still high.

Plenty of disturbances flowing north to south on that fax chart.

[Frosty.]

I'm amazed nobody has said boom today so let me be the first...BOOM :-) its been another day of upgrades for the cold and snow potential next week, I hope the feel good factor carries on with the 00z runs.

[Mark Neal.]

I'm amazed nobody has said boom today so let me be the first...BOOM :-) its been another day of upgrades for the cold and snow potential next week, I hope the feel good factor carries on with the 00z runs.

Steps in the right direction if you want prolonged cold or reloads down the line. We are not there yet, though with next week you will get little disturbances which pop up so some may well get a wintry surprise. Snow showers for northern areas and a wintry mix down south. I'm even staying up to view the ensembles!

[Catacol]

Plenty of snow for Northern/Central England if this were to verify.

 

 

Sleet at low levels. Uppers arent cold enough - check the 850s.

[cheese]

Sleet at low levels. Uppers arent cold enough - check the 850s.

Really? I see -7C temps at the 850mb level for most of northern England and Wales, and -6C for parts of the Midlands and SW England. Seems cold enough to me for snow.

[Catacol]

Really? I see -7C temps at the 850mb level for most of northern England and Wales, and -6C for parts of the Midlands and SW England. Seems cold enough to me for snow.

 

0700 Wednesday as posted has -4 over most areas. That is usually sleet territory though not always admittedly. However I do agree that those at a decent elevation are going to see some snow next week.

 

Edited November 14, 2013 by Catacol_Highlander

[Wilxy]

Sleet at low levels. Uppers arent cold enough - check the 850s.

 

Check the thickness charts aswel 528dam clears uk into channel.

[cheese]

0700 Wednesday as posted has -4 over most areas. That is usually sleet territory though not always admittedly. However I do agree that those at a decent elevation are going to see some snow next week.

 

 

Try looking at things in more detail - -6/-7C uppers for a good chunk of the country coinciding with precipitation.

 

[Frosty.]

I can't reply to pms I'm on blackberry but I really think there is a momentum building with this cold blast, it could be better than nov 2005 and closer to 2010, hopefully the models are not setting us up for an epic fail but I don't think they are this time. Let's see the cold outlook strengthen even more in the days ahead. :- )

[Catacol]

Check the thickness charts aswel 528dam clears uk into channel.

 

For a short spell Tues into Weds agreed. The chance of a more widespread event is certainly there, but the window is small for the south at low levels, and my gut is telling me that it is too early in the season. I would love to be proved wrong!! (either that or live above 300m in the north...)

[Captain Shortwave]

I can't reply to pms I'm on blackberry but I really think there is a momentum building with this cold blast, it could be better than nov 2005 and closer to 2010, hopefully the models are not setting us up for an epic fail but I don't think they are this time. Let's see the cold outlook strengthen even more in the days ahead. :- )

Hope so Frosty, looks like the GFS control is about to lose the plot again, all primed at T192

Here it comes

Edited November 14, 2013 by Captain shortwave

[Mark Neal.]

Try looking at things in more detail - -6/-7C uppers for a good chunk of the country coinciding with precipitation.

Some decent uppers which would be certain to give northern areas a Wintey mix at all levels and wintry mix further south with elevation. All conjecture at this stage, there is a warm sector extending from S Cotswolds into Witshire on this run meaning cold rain here. Wouldn't take too much to heart as this will change over next few days on Individual runs or disappear complexity and give us a wishbone effect northerly! Edited November 14, 2013 by Mark N

[Catacol]

Try looking at things in more detail - -6/-7C uppers for a good chunk of the country coinciding with precipitation.

 

 

Fair point - that chart says snow on the NW edge of the low as it drops south. But I think the conditions will be transient. Really we need more upgrades from the models to become properly excited... SM wont leave us in any doubt if that happens. :-)

[Winter Monsoon]

Catacol and cheese you are arguing over chart thats are 6 days away?

[Catacol]

Catacol and cheese you are arguing over chart thats are 6 days away?

 

Nah - just a fun debate. And chill out pal - this is the model discussion thread. That's what people do - discuss the models!

[lorenzo]

GFS Pub Run & Control Run - delivering epic craziness.

[Yarmy]

Hope so Frosty, looks like the GFS control is about to lose the plot again, all primed at T192

Here it comes

Lol, all hail the GFS control. PV comes to visit Scotland.

[weatherguy]

Everyone knows the GFS control is the most reliable chart to follow...Right, right? 

[J10]

Catacol and cheese you are arguing over chart thats are 6 days away?

That's  nothing I've seen arguments in here at T+384.

 

Back on topic, while the general pattern is the same, the detail difference between GFS 12 and GFS 18 (The larger low pressure delays the arrival of the colder air further south), making further analysis unreliable at this stage,

[Mark Neal.]

Some tasty charts on the control run again like this...

[Man With Beard]

Control run more like a national emergency run in FI. That's like an Atlantic storm with Arctic origins. I wonder if we'll actually see anything like that in our lifetimes.

[mountain shadow]

A great chart to dream about that one! Will it be there in the morning though?