Model Output Discussion 13/11/13 >

[Allseasons-Si]

The GFS makes for painful viewing.

The pub run is p****d i think,or could it be reality?

 

will view the models in the morning(gfs again on it's own as we stand).

[Paul]

Does anyone have a decent link to the latest fax charts?  The meteociel ones have stopped updating.

 

http://www.netweather.tv/index.cgi?action=fax;sess=

[swfc]

And on cue pv heads south   

[Mair Snaw]

Sadly the GFS 18hrs goes downhill even after a more positive start. It throws too much energy into Greenland and then decides to bring more shortwave drama into the mix by throwing this east/ne whereas the ECM phases this with low pressure moving out of Canada.

 

Oh well it wouldn't be the same without some drama, the GFS just loves the attention, its like the NWP version of Paris Hilton! that makes me sound old, lets say Lady Gaga, all style over substance!

 

Should make the morning model runs essential viewing, will the GFS be right and therefore avoid the cat litter tray or will this just be another GFS fiasco?

 

 

Didnt we spend most of last winter putting the GFS in the bin?? it was so way off the marc so many times...the ECM and UKMO were by far the better models to watch...it just seems as ever that if it is not screaming ZONALITY the GFS cant handle it??

[damianslaw]

Short post from me, ECM certainly showing an upgrade in the longevity and strength of cold for next week. I remember last year how often UKMO sided with ECM and the GFS eventually came round to both models. I see no reason why it won't be about to do the same again as it does on so many occasions. Admittedly occasionally it does get things right..but the signals are now heading in the direction for quite a notable cold blast next week for the time of year which won't be quickly shifted aside.

[nick sussex]

The GFS makes for painful viewing. Nice to know the ECM and UKMO are in some form of agreement though.

 

Just watch it throw out a brilliant FI.

Unfortunately that ship already sailed but it still didn't manage to sink the high completely. Yes the ECM and UKMO are close at 144hrs which is always a positive. Should be a good turnout tomorrow morning to see the latest instalment of the GFS show!

[Cheshire Freeze]

If indeed the GFS is plotting this all wrong (as it did so many times last winter & early spring), I wonder at what timeframe it will backtrack? 120 hours? 96 hours? Or as I've sometimes witnessed it, 72 hours?

[Frosty.]

Even in nov 2010 there were model wobbles and chewed finger nails, I think today has seen significant upgrades in the overall output and even the bbc experts talking it up so let's enjoy the overwhelming support we have tonight for the opening salvo of wintry weather next week : -)

[pages]

The 18z navgem is even better than ukmo and ecm at 144. Don't worry about gfs it will catch on tomorrow sometime.

[bobbydog]

another fail from the GFS- just another one in a long line-

 

lets try it tomorrow 12z...

 

night

 

S

 

only if its wrong though.......

[snowstorm445]

Great model output this evening, some very positive developments in terms of cold weather. In my experience of model-watching, its not uncommon to have a fly in the ointment or two in the run up to a cold spell. You will often get the odd model which will go its own way, we'll just have to see how that develops. AFAIK, the GFS in particular is quite poor at dealing with long-range weather.

I could be wrong, they could all revert to Bartlett by tomorrow morning, that's just the nature of model-watching! To newbies who may be unfamiliar with winter discussion on Netweather, you'll probably be seeing a lot of this sort of excruciating yet thrilling synoptic all drama over the next few months. I guarantee you though that it wouldn't be nearly as interesting without the roller-coaster experience.

[BlueHedgehog074]

The GFS 18Z puts the UK back into the freezer in very deep FI...

 

 

I would admit, apart from the odd couple of cold shots, it has not been a particularly great run for cold tonight on the GFS (though it has been quite consistent for next Tuesday to be rather cold with that chilly Northerly/North-Westerly flow, with other models generally agreeing with Tuesday being a particularly cold day), but it does feel like at times that the ECMWF and GFS just don't like being friends with each other.

Edited November 13, 2013 by DiagonalRedLine

[Gaz1985]

The GFS 18Z puts the UK back into the freezer in very deep FI...

 

GFS freezer 18Z FI.png

GFS 18Z uppers (2).png

 

I would admit, apart from the odd couple of cold shots, it has not been a particularly great run for cold tonight on the GFS (though it has been quite consistent for next Tuesday to be rather cold with that chilly Northerly/North-Westerly flow, with other models generally agreeing with Tuesday being a particularly cold day), but it does feel like at times that the ECMWF and GFS just don't like being friends with each other.

 

I think the GFS is the model that usually takes longer to come on board with these colder spells? I'm sure last Winter sometimes it was 48 hours before a snow event that it finally agreed with the others.

[Mark Neal.]

I think the GFS is the model that usually takes longer to come on board with these colder spells? I'm sure last Winter sometimes it was 48 hours before a snow event that it finally agreed with the others.

Yes in past scenarios it has picked up a pattern before dropping before a few days before it then picks the patten up again. It does like to play catch up. Would be good if it does this time around as ECM and UKMO look pretty good!

[snowstorm445]

I think the GFS is the model that usually takes longer to come on board with these colder spells? I'm sure last Winter sometimes it was 48 hours before a snow event that it finally agreed with the others.

Yep. Last winter, the reliable timeframe could be as short as 72 or even 48 hours. Just look at THAT ECM which sent Netweather coldies into a frenzy and would have seen raging easterlies across the UK and Ireland but vanished only 4 days or so before it was forecasted to take place.Although to be fair, the GFS tends to favour zonal weather, especially out towards FI, so its certainly not unheard of to see it going against the ECM and other models for long periods of time.

[BlueHedgehog074]

I think the GFS is the model that usually takes longer to come on board with these colder spells? I'm sure last Winter sometimes it was 48 hours before a snow event that it finally agreed with the others.

Would generally agree with that. There was that scenario in early October where the UKMO picked out a Northerly at 144 hours out (with the ECMWF, after 2 runs I think it was, shortly following it), while other models, such as the GFS, continued to show a Southerly flow. Then slowly, run by run, GFS came on board with the UKMO's/ECMWF's Northerly idea.

Edited November 13, 2013 by DiagonalRedLine

[Mucka]

The Op may have been a let down but at least the control is more in keeping with ECM.

 

 

But the Op is among the fastest and flattest of its ensembles so probably not worth worrying about at this stage.

Also plenty of eye candy in deep FI around for those who dare to dream.

 

Edit.

 

Actually there isn't that much eye candy in deep FI but plenty of nice looking synoptic's out to 192 

Edited November 13, 2013 by Mucka

[Panayiotis]

BEST CFS to date for November 2013! Its the run which reflects my thoughts N>E>NE 

http://www.meteociel.fr/modeles/cfse_cartes.php?ech=174&mode=0&carte=0&run=10

Edited November 13, 2013 by Panayiotis

[SnowObsessor90]

BEST CFS to date for November 2013! Its the run which reflects my thoughts N>E>NE 

http://www.meteociel.fr/modeles/cfse_cartes.php?ech=174&mode=0&carte=0&run=10

It shows something 2010 like for latter part of this month into December, I wish!

[The Northern Ramper]

The Gfs just cannot model the Southern tip of Greenland correctly, we see this time and time again.

Only when it gets past that point will it fall into line.

Until then we are better off following the Bom.

[Timmytour]

I wouldn't be so quick to write off the GFS......yes there were times last year when it lagged behind the UKMO and the ECM but likewise there were also times when it led them.....and the infamous thread of last December was not called "That GFS!"

Personally I think the cold weather is coming....but not in anyway that can be said to be "entrenched" until the first week of December. I think the pattern will be one of the north v south shuffling around in the ring that's the UK with the north tentative at first but getting braver and taking more chances as the bout progresses. For me that's been more or less the pattern of the last few months when perhaps the systems encroaching from the south had slightly the upper hand.

I've got a gut feel that tomorrow will see the ECM retreat a little in the direction of the GFS....though obviously I hope this is wrong and that this post will work in reverse psychology!

[mpkio2]

BEST CFS to date for November 2013! Its the run which reflects my thoughts N>E>NE 

http://www.meteociel.fr/modeles/cfse_cartes.php?ech=174&mode=0&carte=0&run=10

God, now that is a Wintry run of EPIC Poportions!!! (I know I'm ramping, Mods,).

 

I mean just look at this beauty of a High:

1070 High? Impressive. And just look at that sorry looking PV!

 

And then incoming snow showers at the end of the month :

PV comes to take a visit to the UK.

 

Its all just for fun and will probably won't turn out like that at all (I wcan dream though,), but is always Awesome to see on the crazy model wich is the CFS.

[The Northern Ramper]

I wouldn't be so quick to write off the GFS

I would, it's as much use as a chocolate fire guard.

[Beaufort12]

GFS looks on board now with High pressure building to our North

[Radiating Dendrite]

The GFS is now starting to smell the coffee.

Some interesting synoptics, the pool of cold air does run out with nothing to draw on from the NE as we get to the end of hi res and into low res. This is usually always the case though, uppers will change with each run.

The ECM will be very interesting!