Model Output Discussion 13/11/13 >

[Geordiesnow]

Really?

 

Not in the timeframe specified, you only need too see the ECM 144 hour chart and the GFS 18Z 138 hour chart too see the differences. 

 

Frosty - where is the cold air on the GEM run to produce these Blizzards you were mentioning in your post. Your normally very good at reading the models but your post is wrong and misleading apart from the fact it will be a chilly ENE'ly wind! Even if you were merely talking about potential then It would take something exceptional to get a proper cold feeding Easterly from that run seeing as Easterlies in November don't always tend to always be all that cold and any significant sustained cold air is quite far away. 

[SMU]

2 charts

 

18z NAVGEM & 12z NAVGEM at 120 V 126 the same timeframe

 

YES 18z

 

NO 12Z

 

open the 2 & look at the small system in the atlantic-

 

YES is under... no is OVER

 

S

[karlos1983]

i didn't see this coming a few frames ago, lol, only the GFS could provide that Fl drama

 

[SMU]

http://modeles.meteociel.fr/modeles/navgem/runs/2013111718/navgemnh-0-144.png?17-23

 

The final frame of the NAVGM nice..

[Panayiotis]

Hi Steve, the two charts are from the 12z...

Edited November 17, 2013 by Panayiotis

[Cloud 10]

I'm not misleading anyone, the Gem shows potential with the high migrating into scandinavia and strong cold enely winds flooding across the uk, an atlantic low could undercut the block and the result would be mucho snow. I'm sure I'm not alone in seeing the potential. :-)

 

I'm seeing a nice under-cut,but i will need my snow goggles with the extra thick lens to

see the blizzards. 

 

 

Edited November 17, 2013 by Cloud 10

[Panayiotis]

2 charts

 

18z NAVGEM & 12z NAVGEM at 120 V 126 the same timeframe

YES 18z

YES.png

NO 12Z

NO.png

open the 2 & look at the small system in the atlantic-

YES is under... no is OVER

S

Hi Steve, those two charts are from the 12z..

Edited November 17, 2013 by Panayiotis

[Mair Snaw]

2 charts

 

18z NAVGEM & 12z NAVGEM at 120 V 126 the same timeframe

 

YES 18z

YES.png

 

NO 12Z

NO.png

 

open the 2 & look at the small system in the atlantic-

 

YES is under... no is OVER

 

S

Sorry but they look the same to me

 

Panayiotis beat me to it...

Edited November 17, 2013 by bigsnow

[Cheshire Freeze]

Sorry but they look the same to me

 

He's mistakenly posted the same chart twice

[High Altitude]

2 charts

 

18z NAVGEM & 12z NAVGEM at 120 V 126 the same timeframe

 

YES 18z

YES.png

 

NO 12Z

NO.png

 

open the 2 & look at the small system in the atlantic-

 

YES is under... no is OVER

 

S

To my untrained eye those charts look the exactly the same. What to look for to indicate whether the system goes under or over?

[pages]

http://modeles.meteociel.fr/modeles/navgem/runs/2013111718/navgemnh-0-108.png?17-23 18z NAVGEM pretty much inline with the ECM- Looks like the GFS is going to get PWNT again but every model out there.

The navgem is usually awful, but has led the way on this, been mega consistent last few days.

[cold snap]

http://www.meteociel.fr/modeles/navgeme_cartes.php?&ech=144&mode=0&carte=1

Navgem at 144 very nice for coldies

[Mark Neal.]

I spent ages looking at the comparison of 12z and 18z Navgem and they both the same to what Mr murr posted..

A better 18z GFS, but it's the pub run, it does look like it is wanting to get there with pressure rise to our N/NW.

[SMU]

heres the yes chart

 

[Frosty.]

I think you are losing the plot with all your enthusiasm old lad. Blizzards=please explain to us all how?

I already have explained how. :-)

[radiohead]

It's a shame NAVGEM is a pretty poor model. Last 3 runs scored quite badly.

 

[Cheshire Freeze]

YES.png

heres the yes chart

 

Ohhhh Steve how I'd bank that run in an instant!

[Mucka]

http://modeles.meteociel.fr/modeles/navgem/runs/2013111718/navgemnh-0-144.png?17-23

 

The final frame of the NAVGM nice..

 

That chart blows ECM out of the water for cold and HLB prospects at 144 and the ECM wasn't half bad at that timeframe.

 

Be nice if all the models moved that way and it came off - then I could do this for you. 

[EML Network]

IMO the important thing to remember here is that we have cross model agreement that the UK is either directly underneath or very close to High pressure and not a single chart on any model has a the High sinking.

 

All the time we have heights to the North of the UK or indeed right over the top of us, we are always going to be in with a shot at cold air flooding into the UK from either the North or the North East or indeed the East A-la JMA 12z. 

 

The GFS has been dogged about anchoring High Pressure right overhead where as some of the other models have it migrating further north. 

 

As always more runs are needed before we know which way were headed and I expect by the time Wednesday comes there will be another feature that will have to ''play ball'' if we're to get a decent cold spell. 

 

Sadly that's just the way it is, (for most of us)...we normally need several rolls of the dice before we hit the Jackpot but what encourages me tonight is that the output is heading towards giving us plenty of dice rolls. 

 

It's a far cry from what looked to be on offer only a few weeks back and it's early doors, after all we still have 2 weeks of autumn left, so let's not forget that. 

 

 

 

[Mucka]

GFS ensembles pretty much all over the place by 144, doesn't instil confidence.

[SMU]

GFS PTB 10 is the first ensemble to work it out although there are 5 or 6 that nearly get there

 

http://www.meteociel.fr/modeles/gefs_cartes.php?ech=126&code=10&mode=0&carte=1

 

give it another 24/48 hours & they will catch up

 

S

Edited November 17, 2013 by Steve Murr

[Cheshire Freeze]

GFS PTB 10 is the first ensemble to woirk it out although there are 5 or 6 that nearly get there

 

http://www.meteociel.fr/modeles/gefs_cartes.php?ech=126&code=10&mode=0&carte=1

 

give it another 24/48 hours & they will catch up

 

S

 

[Barry12]

GFS PTB 10 is the first ensemble to work it out although there are 5 or 6 that nearly get therehttp://www.meteociel.fr/modeles/gefs_cartes.php?ech=126&code=10&mode=0&carte=1give it another 24/48 hours & they will catch upS

Do you expect the UKMO to back up the ECM tomorrow?

[Cal]

GFS PTB 10 is the first ensemble to work it out although there are 5 or 6 that nearly get there

 

http://www.meteociel.fr/modeles/gefs_cartes.php?ech=126&code=10&mode=0&carte=1

 

give it another 24/48 hours & they will catch up

 

S

Seen it far to often whereby the GFS plays catch up, ever so slightly over the next few runs does the GFS finally smell the coffee, saying that until the UK MetO comes on board within the reliable time frame then there's always a doubt lingering... Still, the current synoptics shown by most models do offer an improvement to a somewhat relaxing of the past few weeks very wet weather.

[Frosty.]

Scroll back to this morning, ian F the met office expert said mogreps is indicating a trend towards a south of west pattern in the 10-15 day range so with all the potential from the ecm we need to think about mogreps as well.