Model Output Discussion 13/11/13 >

[SMU]

ECM goes with the GFS solution at 96 hours. UKMO on its own.

 

Im never worried when the UKMO is on its own- it was the first model not to see ridging into Greenland & this winter it was the first model to see an undercut from the East....

 

That said ECM is very good at 96, just not quite stella.

 

S

[Tom Jarvis]

120 better

[SMU]

http://www.meteociel.fr/modeles/ecmwf/runs/2013111612/ECH0-120.GIF?16-0

 

Importantly at 120 we see a swathe of sub -10c uppers slipping south through Scandi- could be useful later.

 

S

[Barry12]

Look at all the cold to the East

 

[Ian Brown]

ECM closer to the GFS than the UKMO at T120, it does though look like the Atlantic energy will go under so T144 could be a move towards the UKMO position at that timeframe. Lots of uncertainty.

[Matty M]

Decent

 

 

Can you please not comment on it when its only out to t72? Two posts above, one says it's more like the UKMO and the other says it isn't...

I am comparing the charts at the same time step. This is the model output discussion thread. Unfortunately I will continue commenting on the runs as they come out, and I offer no apologies for that.

[Snowman.]

Aye aye, trough disruption east.

 

[weatherguy]

ECM shaping up well so far, energy going under... (runs to the nearest tree to touch it)

Edited November 16, 2013 by weatherguy

[Ian Brown]

Are we not heading toward a mild zonal December though Ian as you said last night?

I didn't say that Shaun, it was a comment in the Strat thread to contradict some of the NWP.

[snowmadchrisuk]

Look at all the cold to the East

 

Just shows how quickly it can build , people often say in here there is nothing to tap into , but in the right setup all that Cold air in the Arctic can very quickly head South, 

[radiohead]

Why not wait to see how it develops rather than judging it in its early stages? Does know one ever learn?

 

I'm comparing the models at the same timeframe, GFS and ECM show a similar setup at T96, UKMO shows something different which doesnt have suppprt from the 2 other major models at that time. Whether the ECM turns out to be a better run for cold/snow or not at a later point is a different matter.

Edited November 16, 2013 by radiohead

[Nick F]

UKMO t+144 looks good synoptically, though I remain to be convinced that the NE flow would be cold enough for anything wintry away from high ground - maybe more raw, grey and drizzly.

From my perspective, the cold arctic air doesn't look to make huge inroads south to our NE, partly because the low sat over central Europe is preventing the deep cold getting very far south to our east, rather it pumps mild air north.This is apparent from 12z GFS anyway.

So it appears that there is a small window for wintry showers late Monday - late Tuesday across northern and western areas and perhaps down the east coast too. Then Wednesday milder air with cloud and rain moes down from the northwest, perhaps preceded by some snow over high ground in the north. Then it appears a raw NE or E flow seems increasingly likely to develop later next week, though the flow looks to become pretty dry.

Edited November 16, 2013 by Nick F

[swfc]

The 144 hour chart on ecm shoudnt imo be far away from the ukmo at the same time if the atlantic low plays ball!hmmm maybe not 

Edited November 16, 2013 by swfc

[chionomaniac]

ECM closer to the GFS than the UKMO at T120, it does though look like the Atlantic energy will go under so T144 could be a move towards the UKMO position at that timeframe. Lots of uncertainty.

The energy has to go under - just look at the negative tilt of the Atlantic trough.

 

[ChartViewer]

Potential potential!

 

 

[Snowy L]

Doesn't look like we'll get the undercut based on t144, though ECM is keen to get that vortex into russia/Scandinavia.

Edited November 16, 2013 by Snowy L

[Frosty.]

Are we not heading toward a mild zonal December though Ian as you said last night?

Not according to the met office

 

Models get another up tick for potential, I think we are going to become locked into a cold outlook with lots of frost and eventually freezing fog, and some snow in places.

[Geordiesnow]

I

That said ECM is very good at 96, just not quite stella.

 

S

 

Very good for what exactly? Is it good for rain/sleet/snow/frost/sunshine? Would be nice if there was more detail in peoples posts. 

 

As most on here love snowy weather, the ECM 96 hour chart will not be good for that and it looks fairly dry too me anyways, could be some nice crisp Autumn sunshine with any showers being in Northern areas but more or less of rain due to uppers not being cold enough. 

 

The UKMO does look like it maybe something more sustained and colder than just a small chilly snap with limited snowfall but at least a frosty period is on the cards after such a mild Autumn. 

[MR EXTREMES]

don't like the ecm out to t144 looks bad still we have cold suface.

[swfc]

The energy has to go under - just look at the negative tilt of the Atlantic trough.

 

ECH1-120.png

maybe not!!

[bluearmy]

maybe not!!

Which frame are you looking at ? T 144 looks to go under?

[Jonan92]

This is a good chart!

 

[ChartViewer]

Again the 168 interests me..Look at the way the ECM is trying to build heights north

 

[SMU]

The ECM 12z I am not happy with again tonight ( 2 days on the trott)

 

I am discarding it- no much energy moving INTO the block / over it-

 

Stick with the UKMO which is smooth & Seemless.-

 

S

[Geordiesnow]

So it appears that there is a small window for wintry showers late Monday - late Tuesday across northern and western areas and perhaps down the east coast too. Then Wednesday milder air with cloud and rain moes down from the northwest, perhaps preceded by some snow over high ground in the north. Then it appears a raw NE or E flow seems increasingly likely to develop later next week, though the flow looks to become pretty dry.

 

On the UKMO run, I think the window for convective showers is bigger than that, uppers and thicknesses are likely to be favorable enough to support the sunshine and shower set up at least until Thursday, with that low coming up from the continent, this may in turn lead to something more dull and wet as uppers will no doubt be getting mixed out by any milder air to the South. Plus the fact its November and with SST's being high, the UKMO(and to a lesser extent the more watered down ECM) is likely to be bright with some showers around the coasts.