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Model Output Discussion 13/11/13 >

chionomaniac

By chionomaniac
in Forecast Model Discussion

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Mucka Maestro

Mucka

Posted
  • Location: Manchester
  • Weather Preferences: Sunny and warm in the Summer, cold and snowy in the winter, simples!
  • Location: Manchester
Posted

Better set of ensembles out to the mid range (144) from GFS with high pressure generally further North and a better(stronger/colder) NE/E flow.

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bluearmy Maestro

bluearmy

Posted
  • Location: st albans
  • Location: st albans
Posted

http://www.amazon.com/Chaos-Making-Science-James-Gleick-ebook/dp/B004Q3RRPI/ref=la_B000AQ3M1I_1_8?s=books&ie=UTF8&qid=1384623315&sr=1-8http://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Edward_Norton_LorenzFundamental reading for those new to modern numerical system interpretation and where it has come from. Probably irks some modern met men but wth! When talking about models, particularly when debate is ripe, it helps to give some context am sure. Deleted in 3... 2....<returns to lurking position>KB

 

which is why we have the ens. helps a bit but it does no harm to remind everyone re the fundamentals !

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KB123 Rookie

KB123

Posted
  • Location: East Sussex (DfL)
  • Weather Preferences: Diversity!
  • Location: East Sussex (DfL)
Posted

which is why we have the ens. helps a bit but it does no harm to remind everyone re the fundamentals !

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shuggee Maestro

shuggee

Posted
  • Location: Upper Tweeddale, Scottish Borders 240m ASL
  • Location: Upper Tweeddale, Scottish Borders 240m ASL
Posted

Fluctuating model output meaning, for me at least, FI begins at T+108-T+120.  Too much changes between runs in the 12-24 hours beyond that to not acknowledge the big differences showing every 6 hours on GFS for our wee island.

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Panayiotis Seasoned

Panayiotis

Posted
  • Location: Cardiff/Reading Uni
  • Weather Preferences: Snow, Sun, Heat, Cold,T/storms via Spanish plumes *rare*
  • Location: Cardiff/Reading Uni
Posted

Deeper shortwave isnt necessary better as the west winds of the low will bring warmer air into the mix from the high. We need an elongated shortwave with minimal mixing of the the warmer air and the cold air.

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bluearmy Maestro

bluearmy

Posted
  • Location: st albans
  • Location: st albans
Posted

Better set of ensembles out to the mid range (144) from GFS with high pressure generally further North and a better(stronger/colder) NE/E flow.

 

and importantly, the gefs mean has split the jet favourably at T162. whether it stays that way, we'll see shortly

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Snowman. Accomplished

Snowman.

Posted
  • Location: Essex, Southend-On-Sea
  • Weather Preferences: Warm, bright summers and Cold, snowy winters
  • Location: Essex, Southend-On-Sea
Posted

3 more minutes  Posted Image

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Mucka Maestro

Mucka

Posted
  • Location: Manchester
  • Weather Preferences: Sunny and warm in the Summer, cold and snowy in the winter, simples!
  • Location: Manchester
Posted (edited)

and importantly, the gefs mean has split the jet favourably at T162. whether it stays that way, we'll see shortly

 

Well yes I know what you mean but when talking about the jet dictating pressure patterns it is a bit  chicken and egg since the better placed the block before that crucial period where the next Atlantic low comes up against the block the more likely we are to split or force energy underneath. 

Edited by Mucka
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bluearmy Maestro

bluearmy

Posted
  • Location: st albans
  • Location: st albans
Posted

 

and importantly, the gefs mean has split the jet favourably at T162. whether it stays that way, we'll see shortly

 

Well yes I know what you mean but when talking about the jet dictating pressure patterns it is a bit  chicken and egg since the better placed the block before that crucial period where the next Atlantic low comes up against the block the more likely we are to split energy underneath.

 

 

mucka , it just means that the gefs 12z resolves the energy se rather than over the block. given gfs' propensity to take the jet over the top, i think thats a decent step towards the cold staying.

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Panayiotis Seasoned

Panayiotis

Posted
  • Location: Cardiff/Reading Uni
  • Weather Preferences: Snow, Sun, Heat, Cold,T/storms via Spanish plumes *rare*
  • Location: Cardiff/Reading Uni
Posted

GEFS ensembles taking there time..

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phil nw. Maestro

phil nw.

Posted
  • Location: Nuneaton,Warks. 128m asl
  • Weather Preferences: Snow then clear and frosty.
  • Location: Nuneaton,Warks. 128m asl
Posted

Fax at 48hrs-issued this afternoon alongside T48+72hrs 12z UKMO uppers

 

post-2026-0-24923900-1384624355_thumb.gipost-2026-0-22702400-1384624368_thumb.gipost-2026-0-13233600-1384624382_thumb.gi

 

At first glance not an especially pronounced Atlantic ridge and a more north westerly than northerly flow but the source of that Arctic air is straight off the Greenland Ice shelf.

That's about the coldest area to our north at the moment and it's been bottled up waiting to be released and here it comes.

The T72hrs chart shows very impressive cold for mid-November.

 

We will need to wait a bit yet before we can see where modeling develops any disturbances but certainly a real chill next week with extensive night frosts and daytime max's well down.

 

The later output continues to show a deep Euro trough which takes that cold well south into the continent which we may well be drawing on later if the block orientates to our ne later.

 

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KB123 Rookie

KB123

Posted
  • Location: East Sussex (DfL)
  • Weather Preferences: Diversity!
  • Location: East Sussex (DfL)
Posted

Thanks for replying BA. Should just point out that the links aren't specifically about weather modelling but more about the inherent fun related to layering stats over non-linear physical phenomena. Many coming on to these great (by the way) forums may not yet appreciate the chasm between physical reality and the desire for model runs to verify. Many of you guys provide a great and valid commentary, though! Do find it frustrating that very occasionally you'll get a post from someone close to, for example, MetO output, which highlights the elephant in the room, which is that we pay (?) for very intelligent analysis to which we have no access, thus either turning everything into acknowledged roulette or at the best playing with one arm behind one's back. Anyway I support Netweather and I really enjoy and learn from your experience.

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West is Best Seasoned

West is Best

Posted
  • Location: .
  • Location: .
Posted

Blimey that's a hell of a 12z GFS run. There's the development of that shortwave aka polar low which IIRC was first showing nearly a week ago then disappeared only to re-emerge at c. T120 on last night's 0z UKMO run. Then the Scandi/Siberian high is showing as a major feature further out.

 

A seriously cold spell for the time of year is now knocking on our door. Open up and the warmth's going to get sucked out for quite some time.

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Frosty. Maestro

Frosty.

Posted
  • Location: Castle Black, the Wall, the North
  • Weather Preferences: Spanish Plumes, Blizzards, Severe Frosts :-)
  • Location: Castle Black, the Wall, the North
  • Popular Post
Posted

If Carlsberg did weather charts, it would look like the ukmo 12z..stunning run for cold and snow potential and hard frosts and it indicates a prolonged cold outlook with further wintry conditions..Even Craig loves it...FAB U LASPosted Image Posted Image Posted Image 

 

Lets have a few BOOMS...BOOM...BOOMPosted Image Posted Image 

post-4783-0-83392900-1384625191_thumb.gi

post-4783-0-09579800-1384625212_thumb.gi

post-4783-0-03081300-1384625228_thumb.gi

post-4783-0-47457800-1384625242_thumb.gi

post-4783-0-21365700-1384625254.gif

post-4783-0-60939200-1384625270_thumb.jp

post-4783-0-07280300-1384625283_thumb.jp

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Mucka Maestro

Mucka

Posted
  • Location: Manchester
  • Weather Preferences: Sunny and warm in the Summer, cold and snowy in the winter, simples!
  • Location: Manchester
Posted

mucka , it just means that the gefs 12z resolves the energy se rather than over the block. given gfs' propensity to take the jet over the top, i think thats a decent step towards the cold staying.

 

Absolutely. I was just trying to say that may be a result of earlier changes, the same changes that give us a higher mean latitude block by 144.Posted Image

 

Chilly GFS 12z short ensembles (850's) Central England

 

http://www.meteociel.fr/cartes_obs/gens_display.php?x=254&y=101&run=12&runpara=0&type=0&ext=1

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phil nw. Maestro

phil nw.

Posted
  • Location: Nuneaton,Warks. 128m asl
  • Weather Preferences: Snow then clear and frosty.
  • Location: Nuneaton,Warks. 128m asl
Posted

Thanks for replying BA. Should just point out that the links aren't specifically about weather modelling but more about the inherent fun related to layering stats over non-linear physical phenomena. Many coming on to these great (by the way) forums may not yet appreciate the chasm between physical reality and the desire for model runs to verify. Many of you guys provide a great and valid commentary, though! Do find it frustrating that very occasionally you'll get a post from someone close to, for example, MetO output, which highlights the elephant in the room, which is that we pay (?) for very intelligent analysis to which we have no access, thus either turning everything into acknowledged roulette or at the best playing with one arm behind one's back. Anyway I support Netweather and I really enjoy and learn from your experience.

Welcome KB.If you put your location up we can see where you are getting your weather.

Thanks.

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Barry12 Seasoned

Barry12

Posted
  • Location: Batley, West Yorkshire
  • Weather Preferences: Heat and Snow
  • Location: Batley, West Yorkshire
Posted (edited)

Decent

 

Posted Image


ECM has cold good bit further east than UKM at just 72hrs (not good for cold prospects)

 

Can you please not comment on it when its only out to t72? Two posts above, one says it's more like the UKMO and the other says it isn't...

Edited by Barry95
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Mucka Maestro

Mucka

Posted
  • Location: Manchester
  • Weather Preferences: Sunny and warm in the Summer, cold and snowy in the winter, simples!
  • Location: Manchester
Posted

96h closer to GFS than MetO but let's see how it develops.

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weatherguy Aficionado

weatherguy

Posted
  • Location: Liverpool - 23m ASL
  • Weather Preferences: Cold, snowy winters and hot, sunny summers!
  • Location: Liverpool - 23m ASL
Posted

If Carlsberg did weather charts, it would look like the ukmo 12z..stunning run for cold and snow potential and hard frosts and it indicates a prolonged cold outlook with further wintry conditions..Even Craig loves it...FAB U LASPosted Image Posted Image Posted Image 

 

Lets have a few BOOMS...BOOM...BOOMPosted Image Posted Image 

 

Indeed!  And on that last chart the LP is perfectly orientated to reinforce the block - Potential for it to undercut as well :) 

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Severe Siberian icy blast Experienced

Severe Siberian icy blast

Posted
  • Location: Wellseborne, Warwickshire
  • Weather Preferences: Southerly tracking low pressure in winter. Hot and thundery in the summer
  • Location: Wellseborne, Warwickshire
Posted

ECM goes with the GFS solution at 96 hours. UKMO on its own.

Why not wait to see how it develops rather than judging it in its early stages? Does know one ever learn?
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