Model Output Discussion 13/11/13 >

[ChartViewer]

All models seem now to be playing around with a block N/NE of the UK (backed up by anomaly charts) in the mid term. Id take that as produces E/SE/NE winds and keep us in the cold mix....Which could bring snow as we move into Winter

 

 

Edited November 16, 2013 by ChartViewer

[MR EXTREMES]

yep nav gem says merry Christmas with arctic reload beautiful wish it was the gfs

and the nav gem also is completely different to earlier run infact its just crazy difference.

Edited November 16, 2013 by model rollercoaster

[Ian Brown]

Amazing 12z ukmo!!that 96 hour chart I think would produce snow widely across england and the Interesting thing is that the 96 hour chart is practically the same as yesterdays 120 hour chart for the same time.infact it's further west. All in all a brilliant start to the evening and hopefully this is the start of one if those famous gfs backtracks. All eyes down for the ecm.....

 

No, assuming it develops like that, it will contain a warm sector, even in the middle of winter, so that even if you have cold enough air in place ahead the bulk of what comes from it would be rain, certainly at low level. Then if colder air is chasing on behind you can get back edge snow on the Northern side.

[Man With Beard]

UKMO is a peach for coldies this afternoon at t144

deepening on the uppers the SE could see some snow from that, all over to ECM now

Not for the first time we have no agreement at day 5

I would urge caution with UKMO at t144 for now until with either see ECM going the same way later on or we see something from Fergie which backs it up

I would add that the 500Hpa anomaly charts have been showing the UKMO T144 scenario for the past three days. It's no one-off.

[swfc]

yep nav gem says merry Christmas with arctic reload beautiful wish it was the gfs

and the nav gem also is completely different to earlier run infact its just crazy difference.

hi where can i view nav gem?cant see it on metiociel.thanks

[MR EXTREMES]

coldies model of the day wish it was the top 3 nav gem superb.

yes metiociel sorry fella id post the link but for some reason windows 8 don't like me and I cant post charts or copy paste links grrrr

Edited November 16, 2013 by model rollercoaster

[TootyFruity]

As summer sun said earlier in a post the NAO is showing signs of going positive how likely is that to happen ?

[bluearmy]

No, assuming it develops like that, it will contain a warm sector, even in the middle of winter, so that even if you have cold enough air in place ahead the bulk of what comes from it would be rain, certainly at low level. Then if colder air is chasing on behind you can get back edge snow on the Northern side.

Do you think the wrm sector will be to the east of the low Ian?

As summer sun said earlier in a post the NAO is showing signs of going positive how likely is that to happen ?

The NAO is purely a measurement of the pressure patterns to our west from the gefs. if its showing signs g going positive, that's just what the previous gfs ens show. Until we have consistency, it's not much use.

[MR EXTREMES]

tbh the nao is only going by the prediction of what the models are showing im not sure how the nao and ao is worked out but two days ago it was set to drop nicely and the ao but since the nightmare run lastnight its gone positive apparently

[Summer Sun]

hi where can i view nav gem?cant see it on metiociel.thanks

 

http://translate.googleusercontent.com/translate_c?act=url&depth=1&hl=en&ie=UTF8&prev=_t&rurl=translate.google.co.uk&sl=auto&tl=en&u=http://www.meteociel.fr/modeles/navgeme_cartes.php&usg=ALkJrhiAmQYowMuF5yQlPoW3p2-fDVlHGQ

Edited November 16, 2013 by Summer Sun

[Ian Brown]

Do you think the wrm sector will be to the east of the low Ian?The NAO is purely a measurement of the pressure patterns to our west from the gefs. if its showing signs g going positive, that's just what the previous gfs ens show. Until we have consistency, it's not much use.

 

 

It's difficult to say, if it was coming down from the NW in a polar flow then areas on the Eastern and Northern side would probably see all snow but it isn't clear how it is going to develop. Certainly at the moment the METO see it as rain for low levels in the North and the Midlands.

[UV-RAY]

I think that the mild sector of the shortwave will stay out towards the Irish Sea/coastal areas rather than make landfall, so those to the East of that could well see sleet/ wet snow.

[MR EXTREMES]

thanks ba I thought it was something like that in regards to the nao ao.

I got a bad feeling about the ecm tonight as I always find that the gem and ecm I like brother and sister models and seem to be program like each other could be wrong but the gem is no good tonight.

[Panayiotis]

I think that the mild sector of the shortwave will stay out towards the Irish Sea/coastal areas rather than make landfall, so those to the East of that could well see sleet/ wet snow.

Its definitely the question we all dying to know regarding next week's potential and I think the answer will be answered when we are only a couple of hours before the main event...

[bluearmy]

thanks ba I thought it was something like that in regards to the nao ao.I got a bad feeling about the ecm tonight as I always find that the gem and ecm I like brother and sister models and seem to be program like each other could be wrong but the gem is no good tonight.

In general ECM is far more likely to resemble ukmo. Whether that's the case tonight, who knows but ukmo is at least consistent in sending plenty of the split jet se. Gem is more likely to be akin to gfs. in any case, I don't mind the gem 12z from a general solution perspective.

[TwisterGirl81]

new?....you were asking the same questions last winter......no worries, TG81, I'd recommend having a look at the tutorial threadS which can be found here ... --------> http://forum.netweather.tv/forum/24-learning-about-weather-and-meteorology/ ...all the best

thankyou, well I don't spend my days looking at different models only the GEFS from time to time ☺ï¸

I do apologise I thought the 'in depth model discussion' was for those of you who have been regulars for a long time and in the 'Model output' we could discuss the models without always posting a chart but I stand corrected

[The Enforcer]

"t+80 hours is still borderline Fantasy Island would you believe and why? because as shown by a poster above, minor scale differences will occur due to us losing the influence of High Pressure. Monday fairly cold, especially North of the border. Tuesday and Wednesday a wintry mix and by Thursday and Friday the predicted airmass by then gets mixed out and the UK remains largely dry, it will still be cold however. Intriguing stuff and the NH pattern is most fascinating now and in six or seven days time whichever model you look at." - Gotolovethisweather earlier this afternoon.

 

 

Agree. A good example of how fruitless it is to pick out detail at this sort of range was last Saturday. At this time last Saturday the forecast for that evening/night was dry. Instead we had about 6 hours of rain. Grossly incorrect only a few hours before, let alone several days in advance - and the complexity of snowfall wasn't being considered.

Edited November 16, 2013 by The Enforcer

[ITSY]

Awesome UKMO for cold and snow potential, GFS better than the 06Z but certainly a long way from UKMO, Navgem closer to UKMO but more of a half way house. GEFS ens should be interesting. Over to you ECM

[MR EXTREMES]

well steve murr may well be out buying some sausages but im sure he will be happy tonight so far.

your soon know if hes not he wont post lol

 

and thanks ba I keep the model similarities in mind.

[Summer Sun]

Has anyone else got a problem with UKMO not updating?

 

t06 to t36 is stuck on 00z from Thursday 14th with the only updates appearing from t42 to t144

[MR EXTREMES]

yes summer sun I have to is on the metoeociel site and I have for the last few days on that site.

[SMU]

http://www.meteociel.fr/ukmo/runs/2013111612/UN144-21.GIF?16-18

 

Evening All-

 

Best run of the winter from the UKMO

 

significantly better than any run this week even when we were at the peak of the early upgrades

 

EXCELLENT Chart--  sustained cold at 144 as the high pressure noses west seperating the jet....

 

S

[cold snap]

Yes summersun I've had this problem all week

[MR EXTREMES]

jma also has shortwave more east and a deeper feature.

didn't I hear that the jma was liked by the met office?

 

colder upper on the jma across most of the country with -20 to the north of Iceland but does look like it might draw the colder air round in later frames.

 

because jma seems to push more cold into Europe and as nick sussex said wont take long for Europe to get cold if this happens.

Edited November 16, 2013 by model rollercoaster

[KB123]

http://www.amazon.com/Chaos-Making-Science-James-Gleick-ebook/dp/B004Q3RRPI/ref=la_B000AQ3M1I_1_8?s=books&ie=UTF8&qid=1384623315&sr=1-8

http://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Edward_Norton_Lorenz

Fundamental reading for those new to modern numerical system interpretation and where it has come from. Probably irks some modern met men but wth! When talking about models, particularly when debate is ripe, it helps to give some context am sure. Deleted in 3... 2....

<returns to lurking position>

KB