Model Output Discussion 13/11/13 >

[Mucka]

UKMO 

 

 

 

 

Edit: LOL Radiohead thats 2 for 2, stop it!

 

 

That is an absolute stunner out of the blue though. Very exciting chart for the SE especially assuming the uppers were cold enough and looking at the evolution up to then they could well be.

What will ECM bring?

Edited November 16, 2013 by Mucka

[Joe Levy]

Snowy and Joey, although I can both see what you are saying, this is almost pointless debate and she be undertaken by PM.t+80 hours is still borderline Fantasy Island would you believe and why? because as shown by a poster above, minor scale differences will occur due to us losing the influence of High Pressure. Monday fairly cold, especially North of the border. Tuesday and Wednesday a wintry mix and by Thursday and Friday the predicted airmass by then gets mixed out and the UK remains largely dry, it will still be cold however. Intriguing stuff and the NH pattern is most fascinating now and in six or seven days time whichever model you look at.

 

 

GFS 12z 161113 H500 & SLP at t+144.png

I totally agree with you! Perhaps I didn't make myself clearly enough, but my point was that it is still too far away to make assertions about the nature of precipitation and that there is time for change in either direction. 

[MR EXTREMES]

plenty of surface cold ian b atleast it will feel wintry im still on the fence and still sticking with the ukmo model

and by the looks of it the ukmo is better than the gfs blimey still nothing nailed still need at least few days of cross model agreement

Edited November 16, 2013 by model rollercoaster

[Joe Levy]

It can't happen from that position.

Not so sure about that. Some cold air is certainly moving westwards, though it is into low res/FI territory. 

[Ian Brown]

plenty of surface cold ian b atleast it will feel wintry im still on the fence and still sticking with the ukmo model

and by the looks of it the ukmo is better than the gfs blimey still nothing nailed still need at least few days of cross model agreement

 

I feel that the UKMO at T144 is not a chart to put great faith in, we saw the other night how it backtracked in the morning from a certain position.

[doctormog]

I feel that the UKMO at T144 is not a chart to put great faith in, we saw the other night how it backtracked in the morning from a certain position.

That may be but looking at the GFS chopping and changing then it certainly is not a model to put great faith in at the minute!

[MR EXTREMES]

my god the gfs at t192 is really touch and go it could evolve into something nice just before months end or start of December but low pressure over Greenland looks angry and the scandi high looks strong but who will win......

 

very true ian brown I will say atleast its t144 and not like the other models but yes your right it has upgraded down grade then upgraded again.. its a wait and see moment

Edited November 16, 2013 by model rollercoaster

[Mucka]

That may be but looking at the GFS chopping and changing then it certainly is not a model to put great faith in at the minute!

 

Very true. All we can say is the GFS is a big improvement in the high res from previous runs and the so is the MetO, that must be worth something.

Hopefully ECM will continue the theme but the likes of Steve M must be salivating over their keyboards as they type up after that MetO run.

 

I'm actually surprised there isn't more comment and excitement but I guess folk are being sensible and measured after the usual rollercoaster of MO.

Edited November 16, 2013 by Mucka

[Snowy L]

I think this first shot at cold will get away from us and we will end up with high pressure too close to the UK. However, it's good to see that most models still keep low pressure to our South. This could help in the coming days as a further burst of wave breaking is expected which will help to push the bulk of the Polar Vortex to the Southeast of the Pole and into Russia.

 

I actually think this FI run is a good shout at what will happen, with high pressures making their way towards the Pole from the Canada region, let's hope we end up in a favorable position for a block.

Edited November 16, 2013 by Snowy L

[Summer Sun]

UKMO is a peach for coldies this afternoon at t144

 

 

deepening on the uppers the SE could see some snow from that, all over to ECM now

 

Not for the first time we have no agreement at day 5

 

 

I would urge caution with UKMO at t144 for now until with either see ECM going the same way later on or we see something from Fergie which backs it up

Edited November 16, 2013 by Summer Sun

[shaky]

Amazing 12z ukmo!!that 96 hour chart I think would produce snow widely across england and the Interesting thing is that the 96 hour chart is practically the same as yesterdays 120 hour chart for the same time.infact it's further west. All in all a brilliant start to the evening and hopefully this is the start of one if those famous gfs backtracks. All eyes down for the ecm.....

[gottolovethisweather]

I totally agree with you! Perhaps I didn't make myself clearly enough, but my point was that it is still too far away to make assertions about the nature of precipitation and that there is time for change in either direction. 

 

Indeed Joe, Thanks. I just want to keep the flow of the thread going rather than personal debates amongst members, let's learn about the bigger picture. From my amateurish view, GFS 12z was much better than the 6z for coldies, especially in the more reliable timeframe. It also seems MetO has produced a stonker for the time of year, too. Need to wait for the ensembles though, which are often overlooked by a lot folk in here, as these act as a guidance tool moving into FI and beyond. I still maintain that it looks feasible that almost up until the end of November, the Atlantic could remain blocked.

 

A disrupted NH Jetstream if I've ever seen one, this at t+168 (12pm, Saturday 23rd November)

 

 

 

 

 

Edited November 16, 2013 by gottolovethisweather

[radiohead]

UKMO looks great at T120 compared to the GFS. Very intertesting to see if the ECM does something like this.

 

Edited November 16, 2013 by radiohead

[nick sussex]

The UKMO is the best output of the season, especially as it looks like it delivers some cold uppers into central Europe which can get advected west, with snow cover likely in that region we should see temps dropping fast.

 

Theres still though a lot of uncertainty with that shortwave dropping south which is crucial for the output past T96hrs, this morning the ECM didn't want to know regarding that shortwave . We have been here many times before with this type of scenario and even though its only 96hrs away I'd advise especially the newbies to wait until T72hrs before seeing this as a done deal, and that's even if the ECM changes it's tune and backs this.

 

In terms of snow off that shortwave, we'll have to see where any warm sector is modelled before seeing whose most at risk.

[Snowy L]

"Indeed Joe, Thanks. I just want to keep the flow of the thread going rather than personal debates amongst members,"

 

It was hardly personal, it was two members giving differing opinions on what a model was showing, exactly what this thread should be about

[Panayiotis]

On the UKMO 96hr chart I think the Met might go with that evolution as it has been shown by the models today so expect to see it on the FAX later but where will they put the 528dam line? Thats the question!

[gottolovethisweather]

"Indeed Joe, Thanks. I just want to keep the flow of the thread going rather than personal debates amongst members,"

 

It was hardly personal, it was two members giving differing opinions on what a model was showing, exactly what this thread should be about

 

Whatever and I respect both your points of view. I just don't like this place when disagreements often lead to personal attack, was what I was really getting at. May well get snowy in your patch too, so good luck.

[Jonan92]

Navgem and Gem showing a potential northerly

 

 

[MR EXTREMES]

in regards to the ukmo run id be on the fence as they will modify the raw output best to wait for the fax.

notice the gem not to bad either so far gfs not a total nightmare most certainly better runs so far better than yesterdays Prozac moment.

 

im sure I be order more meds for the next few days lol

 

the futher west that shortwave on the ukmo the better and nick yes infact nearly all the models are toying with colder air getting into Europe, cold air then heights northeast and a nice easterly flow then December could be a real early winter wonderland but lets see what our friends at the met office do with there modified version.

Edited November 16, 2013 by model rollercoaster

[cooling climate]

UKMO 12Z run looks very tasty indeed.

Certainly wintry showers around if that verified and of

course completely different to the GFS run we have just

seen.

I think I would put more faith in the UKMO run myself

since we know the problems the GFS model has with

phasing energy in the Atlantic.

[fergieweather]

UKMO is a peach for coldies this afternoon at t144deepening on the uppers the SE could see some snow from that, all over to ECM nowI would urge caution with UKMO at t144 for now until with either see ECM going the same way later on or we see something from Fergie which backs it up

Yeah, but given yesterday's UKMO-GM underwent an 80% blend to EC by the MR folk at Ops Centre (to create our deterministic version), I'd not take any single solution too much at face value. Anyway, will see what their assessment is across all 12z NWP suites in next briefing around 2230.

[Jonan92]

Nagvem at 156t, nice chart

 

Edited November 16, 2013 by Jonan92

[MR EXTREMES]

gem has easterly but no cold air to tap into but looks pretty much the same as the gfs.

but not much deeper colder air to the east but does still have high pressure over scandi area.

[Weathizard]

Everything changes but some things still stay the same - Model inconsistency, it's what makes it so interesting though right? The GFS 6z to 12z may look fairly similar but they are chalk and cheese, that low coming across Canada towards Greenland wasn't even on the 6z and that's only 5 days out! Says a lot for how much the models can be trusted currently, there's some very complicated scenarios being shown though so it's hardly surprising.

Cautiously optimistic though.

[bluearmy]

Uknto - firstly, the shortwave runs down the west of the UK which puts areas to the east of it at risk of a white surprise. Secondly, it doesn't cut off the cold feed from scandi like the others. Now the end of that run has shades of 2010 about it. If the uppers were a few degrees lower we'd be in business. As it is, should it verify, it would be borderline (prob the wrong side). Lets see where ECM takes the jet and if it can keep the cold feed going tht bit longer than gefs and gem. Incidentally, gfs is in the bin if it has the split flow wrong to our west. too early to say but it has 'form'.

Edited November 16, 2013 by bluearmy