Model Output Discussion 13/11/13 >

[Skullzrulerz]

Nice

 

 

 

Well better...

What is better?

[Snowy L]

That is, however, a minor detail. It is likely that low pressure system will be in a completely different location and with a different arrangement of uppers on the actual day, so it is too early to ascertain the nature of specifics such as a warm sector.

 

The event is 80 hours away, and a clear signal has been given again and again - widespread upper temperatures of -2 and dew points above zero for most.

[cheese]

The event is 80 hours away, and a clear signal has been given again and again - widespread upper temperatures of -2 and dew points above zero for most.

The previous runs didn't even have any precipitation - might not happen at all. 80 hours is too long to make a definite call for snow - even within 24 hours, nothing is certain.

Edited November 16, 2013 by cheese

[Mucka]

Amazing run to run variability for the short/mid term.

 

GFS 06z 12z jet profile and pressure chart comparison 144

 

06z/12z

 

jet

 

pressure.

 

[MR EXTREMES]

gfs t156 possible slider slipping under our block indeed looks likely blocking might move a little futher north alantic lows slid uder could be a peach knife edge stuff

Edited November 16, 2013 by model rollercoaster

[radiohead]

Massive difference over Greenland by T144 compared to the 06Z. Shows how quickly things can change, one way or the other.

Edited November 16, 2013 by radiohead

[shaky]

Massive differences for the better on this run.much more amplified. Have we pulled it out at the last moment. Doubt it very much. The last 4 gfs runs have been pretty similar with less amplification and all of a sudden it comes out with a run like this.

[cooling climate]

I may be wrong of course but I have the feeling this is going

to be a much colder run than the 06z run this morning.

[Joe Levy]

The event is 80 hours away, and a clear signal has been given again and again - widespread upper temperatures of -2 and dew points above zero for most.

But you said yourself that the previous run had a different warm sector, so the next run will have it slightly different again. Temperatures like that are so marginal that the slightest difference one way or another makes nowcasting a more reliable tool. Elevation and distance from the coast will of course be key, but there is most definitely still time for change. 

[Snowman.]

What is better?

Pressure staying north less 'energy' going over.

[Skullzrulerz]

Pressure staying north less 'energy' going over.

Thanks only a rookie at this 

[radiohead]

[MR EXTREMES]

yep its looking like a peach in many aspects very deep low in the alantic hope it slides under reinforce low pressure into Europe also colder into Europe fingers crossed guy and gals

 

theres a break in low pressure to the north this only one run though but nice looking charts.

Edited November 16, 2013 by model rollercoaster

[MR EXTREMES]

as long as the uk high pressure don't slip to far east as can happen as like December 2012

better for longer term prospects for us coldies and im not really looking for snow just yet my dream white Christmas.

Edited November 16, 2013 by model rollercoaster

[Zenarcher]

GFS 12z looking good so far and seems to take a step towards the 00z ECM.

 

ECM 00z 1am 22nd

 

 

GFS 12z 1am 22nd

 

 

Compare that to the 06z

 

 

Later on by the 23rd big bit of PV over Greenland on the 06z

 

 

Which is now gone on the 12z run as pressure tries to build up to Greenland

 

 

The models are still clearly struggling in some areas as we've seen this over the past few days some features have been completely different among various models.

[Mucka]

Sneak a peak MetO GFS 12z comparison 72h

 

[Snowy L]

PV starting to look very stretched, maybe a build of high pressure towards Scandi is on?

[Mair Snaw]

Am i right in think if the Low on the 12z undercuts it will help the HP to move N/W toward greenland??

[Ian Brown]

yep its looking like a peach in many aspects very deep low in the alantic hope it slides under reinforce low pressure into Europe also colder into Europe fingers crossed guy and gals

 

theres a break in low pressure to the north this only one run though but nice looking charts.

 

The jet is going to go over the top but low heights over S Europe mean that mid-latitude HP is likely for some time.

[Joe Levy]

High pressure over UK building NEwards as a section of the pv sinks into Eastern Europe slowly. Would be fab if that got pulled westwards as it would advect colder air into our corner of Europe. Emphasis on the word 'if' of course!

[A.J]

I looked at the GEFS this morning and apart from next week it didn't look amazing for coldies? I'm new to the models but that was my impression, was I missing something?

new?....you were asking the same questions last winter......no worries, TG81, I'd recommend having a look at the tutorial threadS which can be found here ...  --------> http://forum.netweather.tv/forum/24-learning-about-weather-and-meteorology/ ...all the best

[cooling climate]

Just my take on things but I would not be surprised if the phasing of the

energy in the northwest Atlantic will end up different to what the 12z

run is showing us.

Expect the UKMO and the ECM will have a different approach to this.

[gottolovethisweather]

But you said yourself that the previous run had a different warm sector, so the next run will have it slightly different again. Temperatures like that are so marginal that the slightest difference one way or another makes nowcasting a more reliable tool. Elevation and distance from the coast will of course be key, but there is most definitely still time for change. 

 

Snowy and Joey, although I can both see what you are saying, this is almost a pointless debate and should be undertaken by PM. t+80 hours is still borderline Fantasy Island would you believe and why? because as shown by a poster above, minor scale differences will occur due to us losing the influence of High Pressure. Monday fairly cold, especially North of the border. Tuesday and Wednesday a wintry mix and by Thursday and Friday the predicted airmass by then gets mixed out and the UK remains largely dry, it will still be cold however. Intriguing stuff and the NH pattern is most fascinating now and in six or seven days time whichever model you look at.

 

 

Edited November 16, 2013 by gottolovethisweather

[Ian Brown]

High pressure over UK building NEwards as a section of the pv sinks into Eastern Europe slowly. Would be fab if that got pulled westwards as it would advect colder air into our corner of Europe. Emphasis on the word 'if' of course!

It can't happen from that position.

[radiohead]

UKMO 144