Model Output Discussion 13/11/13 >

[snowmadchrisuk]

Hi mate, how reliable is this model though?

 

Well it won't come tops in any competitions , but very interesting to see that the 00z nasa model also had cold uppers and low pressure to the SW

 

[Summer Sun]

Summer sun I know we all comment on the models but a lot of us do like cold and snow with them. Is there any smiles you can put on our faces with potential instead of putting a downer on everything with cold potential.
It isn't a personal dig etc I am just saying because everytime some people try to get there hopes up they get dashed.

I was only saying it was yesterday's run (which it is) don't see whats wrong with that?

 

GFS 12z following the 06z run so far

 

 

Wintery showers around the coasts though rain starts to push into the far north west of Scotland later in the day (Tuesday) where its becoming less cold this is still snow on its leading edge

 

 

The way GFS is going so far only Tuesday will be the coldest day

Edited November 16, 2013 by Summer Sun

[TwisterGirl81]

I looked at the GEFS this morning and apart from next week it didn't look amazing for coldies? I'm new to the models but that was my impression, was I missing something?

[shaky]

Okay okay peeps no reason for things to get heated.i know the 12z run is on its way out but just keep your emotions in check.........for now!!!!

Does the 12z look a bit more amplified and colder than yesterdays 12z for the same time?

[Mucka]

Slider looks a little more promising than the 2 previous runs, tricky forecast.

 

[Snowman.]

Pressure is further north on this run for Greenland.

 

6z

 

 

12z

 

 

Also more 'energy' dropping down into Europe.

Edited November 16, 2013 by SN0WM4N

[johnholmes]

BBC Website directly driven by raw UKMO-GM & UKMO 'Best Data' (temps). No forecaster interventions. Exactly same data feed driving UKMO site-specific web forecast. In the past we could intervene and tweak. We can't now. Conversely, TV gfx fed by modified NAE (at least for now) and GM. Hence at times will differ from web forecasts as represent directly Chief Forecaster's modified fields.

 

that sounds a very likely reason but why they have never explained that is odd-thanks a lot Ian

[Summer Sun]

During Wednesday we have a band of rain moving down from Scotland snow / sleet on its leading edge before turning back to rain

 

 

At the same time we have a second band of cold air and snow moving into Scotland

 

Edited November 16, 2013 by Summer Sun

[johnholmes]

I think Ian F's assessment for Tues/Wed agrees completely with all the free models we are looking at, though a yellow warning for parts of Scotland / NW England might be useful nearer the time if ppn amounts stack up?

 

Longer term: As ever, if you're wanting at a soap opera, look at each model in isolation and panic/salivate in response. But if you're wanting to make a forecast, look at lots of models over the course of a day or so. And, based on several models such as the ones below, I actually think there is enough confidence to call T168-T192 (i.e. next weekend). There will very likely be high pressure centered somewhere between Iceland and Finland, and, even more likely, low pressure centred not a long way from the French Riviera. For the UK, this means that an easterly seems unavoidable (especially in the South), probably persisting for a few days (which fits in with UKMO forecast provided by Ian F above). GFS 06Z slightly different but out on its own. Being late November, the easterly is likely to be cold as it will be sourced through Eastern Europe at the very least, though as yet unclear how cold; precipitation (could be rain, sleet or snow depending on depth of cold) is possible, more especially if the high is centered in Scandinavia or above Scotland.

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 a very sensible assessment of the somewhat longer term-much appreciated

[radiohead]

I'm not sure what difference it will make down the line, but on the 12Z GFS there is a deep low over Canada heading east that didn't even exist on the 06Z.

 

[Mucka]

This is different.

 

 

 

Not seen such a developed LP NW of Greenland before.

 

Edit.

 

Radiohead beat me t it. It has not been on any previous output, certainly not as such a prominent feature.

Edited November 16, 2013 by Mucka

[Barry12]

Tuesday is still looking cold, -8 uppers over Scotland and Northern England.

 

[Snowman.]

Much better upstream pattern here, looking less flat already.

 

 

Can that low save the day?

Edited November 16, 2013 by SN0WM4N

[Joe Levy]

The long term potential of this chart is much greater than was apparent on the 6z. Cautious optimism is called for I believe haha!

[shaky]

Much better from the 12z high pressure further west in the atlantic and we getting affected more by the low pressure from the east. Yesterday's 12z showed a flatter pattern

[gottolovethisweather]

I looked at the GEFS this morning and apart from next week it didn't look amazing for coldies? I'm new to the models but that was my impression, was I missing something?

 

You may be new TwisterGirl but you have been about the place for a while so I were you I'd check the date on your calendar. Without going into the specifics, there will be a chill to the air UK wide next week, some places will see some of the wintry liquid, whilst others will be wondering what the hell all the fuss is about. My reference to the time of year is that we are not yet in Winter and nearly everyone will be looking out of their windows for wintriness on occasions. You will also need to put more logs on the fire and/or turn up the central heating a notch.

 

Sorry guys n gals, sarcasm doesn't always work so I apologise, now if all of you would please stick to discussing the Model Output and put one or two charts up it will be greatly appreciated.

 

Edit: I take it back, some good input as I was posting this, keep it up chaps.  

Edited November 16, 2013 by gottolovethisweather

[Jonan92]

Previous run

 

 

Current run

 

 

Interesting strong low west of Greenland,

Edited November 16, 2013 by Jonan92

[cooling climate]

The 12z GFS run out to t120 is a fair bit more amplified than

the 06z run with a much better profile to the north of the UK.

[Snowy L]

Larger warm sector with this low pressure, snow event for lower ground looks very unlikely.

[shaky]

Larger warm sector with this low pressure, snow event for lower ground looks very unlikely.

still time for changes!!as you can see the low pressure has been pushed further west on this run and if that carries on then we could stay in colder air for even longer which increases an all snow event chance

[Snowman.]

132 Is taking its time.

[WillinGlossop]

Larger warm sector with this low pressure, snow event for lower ground looks very unlikely.

Thinking the hills in the peaks mite be white come wednesday..... Mite see some flakes up here too..... But might snow a bit longer up here than the charts are currently suggesting.... Elevation and evaporative cooling....

[Joe Levy]

Larger warm sector with this low pressure, snow event for lower ground looks very unlikely.

That is, however, a minor detail. It is likely that low pressure system will be in a completely different location and with a different arrangement of uppers on the actual day, so it is too early to ascertain the nature of specifics such as a warm sector.

[Snowman.]

Nice

 

 

 

Well better...  that low could save it as it allows a WAA into Greenland.

Edited November 16, 2013 by SN0WM4N

[ITSY]

big differences around Greenland at +138