Model Output Discussion 13/11/13 >

[Snowman.]

That second chart isnt good at all. North Westerly flow with HP extending to our south. Yuck. Unless you're up a mountain. Hoping for much better based on the op runs this morning.

 

Ahh but the Arctic is still blocked off and PV disrupted so lets hope it would swing back around after that.

[Cecil Hogmanay Melchett]

gfs looks more like ukmo for midweek,plenty of precip,borderline for many elevation will help.

[shaky]

gfs looks more like ukmo for midweek,plenty of precip,borderline for many elevation will help.

well this can only be a good thing cos the ukmo looked very cold this morning

[Captain Shortwave]

Well the 06z is living up to its stereotype, really cranking things up over Greenland.

[Snowman.]

Seen enough of this run to already know where it belongs.

 

In the bin.

[johnholmes]

The question must be asked why their website which is so promoted by forecasters is so different to forecasts John, sorry but they shouldn't be. 

 

BFTP

 

totally agree and I have never had a satisfactory reply either to a general office e mail or to those I worked with prior to their retirment recently- poor as you say, quite why is beyond my understanding.

Simply folks do NOT take notice of the BBC weather site use the Met Office one. Try sending an e mail and quoting a difference and see how they react this time-it might do some good, you never know although I've never seen pigs fly. Sad as an ex met man this happens.

[karlos1983]

nice cold pool heading in from the east

 

[bluearmy]

Gfs 06z so flat to our north above the ridge. doesn't seem likely but hey, who knows?

[joggs]

totally agree and I have never had a satisfactory reply either to a general office e mail or to those I worked with prior to their retirment recently- poor as you say, quite why is beyond my understanding.Simply folks do NOT take notice of the BBC weather site use the Met Office one. Try sending an e mail and quoting a difference and see how they react this time-it might do some good, you never know although I've never seen pigs fly. Sad as an ex met man this happens.

Maybe just covering their backs in case the forecasts go belly up or vice versa?,poor though as you say.

[radiohead]

As "bad" the the 06Z GFS looks to our north, there is still some cold air moving into southeast England at the end of hi res.

 

[Weathizard]

Well the 6z is certainly a Bizzare run this morning.... Look at the piece of Vortex moving into Russia

http://modeles.meteociel.fr/modeles/gfs/runs/2013111606/gfsnh-0-204.png?6?6

The low pressure system to the North is just ridiculous, think the GFS went mad.

Edited November 16, 2013 by Weathizard

[karlos1983]

Next few frames will surely be cold

 

 

or not as the case may be, 

Edited November 16, 2013 by karlos1983

[Jonan92]

 

 

Some cold in eastern Europe in this run....

[Weathizard]

Good news despite it being an exceptionally messy run is the fact a piece of the PV is being pulled into Siberia & dropping some very cold air into Europe which we need in the long run

[karlos1983]

Nothing Zonal in this chart, Low going up the west of Greenland and not much happening in the Atlantic. Fl i know, but nice all the same

 

[bsnowy]

Looks like a frosty end to November then.

[shaky]

Latest cfs run (version 1) looks extremely cold and snowy well into December!!

[Frosty.]

Nice looking Ecm 00z ensemble mean for coldies this morning, we are looking north and east for our weather instead of the azores, it's a cold run and increasingly blocked, genuine deep cold from the arctic plunging south through the first half of next week with snow showers for some areas and once the arctic air is cut off, it continues cold with frosty nights, the atlantic is becoming very benign and our first cold spell is almost here. 

Edited November 16, 2013 by Frosty.

[Snowman.]

Big ridge by the pacific.

[East_England_Stormchaser91]

 

 

Some cold in eastern Europe in this run....

Love that chart, especially for the long run. Once that frigid air is sat over the continent, thats it, it isn't moving anywhere fast! Any wind from the East then would bring some beefy snow showers into the Country and perhaps prolonged snow. 

As frosty says, BANK!

[Joe Levy]

The fact that all the models today are even showing a chance of wintry weather in the short term is exciting enough for me, but perhaps living in snow starved Exeter has informed that... None of the models are showing anything I would call rubbish this morning. The prevalence of high pressure is extremely promising since that should mean we won't get the same degree of flooding nationwide as last year. However, where that high pressure sits will make a huge difference to our weather, which is even more exciting! Place your bets now people...

[Snowman.]

Block theme to remain during December?

 

 

Edited November 16, 2013 by SN0WM4N

[Joe Levy]

Block theme to remain during December?

 

Look at how fragmented the polar vortex is! There is so much high pressure there, I have to wonder where all the low pressure went... somewhere in the world will be swimming at that point...

[Snowman.]

Look at how fragmented the polar vortex is! There is so much high pressure there, I have to wonder where all the low pressure went... somewhere in the world will be swimming at that point...

The famous H pattern.

[Frosty.]

The GFS 06z op run brings a risk of significant accumulations of snow across scotland early next week, could be very disruptive up there if that wave feature forms and hits the arctic air, a big dump of snow if that occurs, it's a cold run and next week there is a risk of snow for other parts of the uk until towards the end of the week with lots of frosts, probably an increasing risk of freezing fog in FI and always the chance of a wintry reload.